:X yeah thats what i ment

thanks guys i think you all just made me a lot of money

bump

selling action on this if anyone is interested

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18.../#post31762765

On the theory end I'd like to see some of the effects some really minor card mechanic actions can achieve. How often would a mechanic have to be able to set up a flop containing a King to eliminate the edge? How much does taking a single Ace out of play move the %'s. Things like that. As huge an edge as 55% or whatever is over time I think in a live dealt game you've just about got to take into account that a guy doesn't exactly have to be a magician with the cards to swing things the other way.

Without getting into the details of manipulating a deck and not getting caught doing it, obviously it's easier to occasionally take a single unfavorable card out of play or put a single favorable card in play than it is to set over set the guy in the #4 seat vs the guy in the #7 seat.

derail (assuming we are working out Kx vs random hand)

I was thinking about this and intuitively it felt wrong. I don't think this works because the probability of getting KK isn't conditioned the same way as OP stated as it is in pokerstove. p(KK|K)=3/51 = 1/17, whereas p(KK|hands that contain at least one K) = 6 combos / (16*12 +6) combos = 6/198 = 1/33.

16*12 + 6 because, there are 12 ways of getting Kx where x isn't a K, and 16 combinations of each of them. Add 6 combos of KK.

Or another way of looking at it is that getting dealt a specific Kx is 16/6 times more likely than KK. Whereas once you get dealt a K, the probability of a specific Kx is 4/3 more likely than KK.

So equity of Kx is higher than the pokerstove calculations above, since KK is more likely due to conditioning properly rather than working out natural probability of getting dealt a hand and then conditioning to exclude all non K hands.

/derail