Hi,
reading quantum poker, was hoping someone could clarify this equation for me
In discussing a situation where you have a G.S+F.D vs top pair
"You figure they will not call a potsized bet on the river if you make your flush, but they will call if you make your straight. You have 9 outs to win the pot, plus 3 outs to win the pot plus a pot sized bet. you estimate your equity at around 27% and need to figure out if you can call a pot sized bet. Your pot odds are 1/(1+2), 33%, not enough to call."
that i understand, here's the part i can't wrap my head around,
"but 3/44 times you will collect another potsized bet, which will be 3 times larger than the bet on this street. So 3/44*3 can be added to your pot odds calculation giving you about 31% equity needed to call"
I understand there is some weighting going on here, but,.. why are you doing 3/44*3
basically, 6% of the time you're making 3x as much..?
doesn't 3/44*3 come out to 18-20%? how does 3/44*3 give you the extra 4% equity thats getting you from 27% to 31%
thanks in advance !