Got into a big pot in a deep 1-3 game tonight where I had top set, AA on A
10
9
flop. I knew the guy was on a big draw when he snap called my flop raise. turn brings J
. It checks to me and I bet the pot. (I wish I would have sized this different in retrospect but that is not point of this post)
So when the guy check raises me all in on the turn for $1000.00, I need 22.7% equity for a break even call. I dont have it because this guy doesnt make this move without K
Q
or 8
7
.
In retrospect, how should we think about a spot like this?
(1) My expected value of calling here is -40$ so I am going to fold and save that $40. That is almost an hourly rate for me.
or
(2) Nothing in poker can be calculated to 100% so if I think I am 100% behind, I am probably behind something more like 95-98% of the time. The one time I am wrong and this guy has 1010 or something will cost me $1700.00 so I better just throw the 500 in and hope to hit one of 10 outs.
I mean I couldn't even convince myself this guy might have 1010 or 99 once in a blue moon and Im usually really good at finding some reason to call and lose when its this close. I didnt have a history with this guy though so I was basing this on his appearance and play over last 2 hours. Nevertheless, i was pretty sure about it.
Or maybe it doenst matter if we call or fold when its this close and we just decide based on other factors like how it will effect the game dynamics.
Id appreciate any thoughts on this. Thx