How pokerstars calculate the probability? - Poker Theory

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How pokerstars calculate the probability?

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11-10-2019 , 12:38 PM

TK1991

grinder

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 453

Hi, in this situation player with K-Qo has 12.5% probability to win according to pokerstars.

In my opinion he need K or Q to win this hand. It is 4cards. 4*(circa) 2% = 8%
If they means that split is win too he need J. There is another 3cards of J.
3*2%= 6%
6%+8%=14%

Always other number. Where do I make mistake?
Thanks

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11-10-2019 , 01:03 PM

Zuko

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 2,356

i dont think it is 12.5% to win but equity of the pot. so when jack hits you split and that gives him 50% pot share.

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11-10-2019 , 01:07 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,046

I'm sure they do an exact calculation, not the 2x rule and probably count a chop as 1/2 a win. So, if they ignore other player cards (if there were other players)

Pr = 4/44 + 1/2*3/44 = 12.5%

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11-11-2019 , 03:53 PM

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

Instead of counting 'outs', which might mean you forget about "chopportunities", and only have an approximation if you use the "rule of 2", get Equilab and find out the actual equity.

Board: ThQc9cKd
---- Equity Win Tie
KcQs 12.50% 9.09% 3.41% { KcQd }
JTdd 87.50% 84.10% 3.41% { JdTd }

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