hey,

how to count equity from flop to turn basing on equity from flop to river ?

Let's say we have flop:
Qd 7d 5d

Opponent's range:

we got cb on the flop 55 to 80POT, so we need
~ 28,9 % to call.

Our hand is:
9d7s


so from flop to river we have: 38.06 % equity.

But we are not sure we will fullfill our equity.

So is there a quick method to come near from equity from flop to river
to equity from flop to turn ?

My friend told me it is circa: equity/2 + 2.5 %

what do you think?

I know there are some programs that could count it, but i am looking for free stuff only.

Truthfully, poker just does not work this way. There is not really any trick you can do, in most circumstances, to consider calling based on immediate pot odds alone. There are too many potential outcomes based on board cards that come and some random factors.

I'm sorry above i made a typo
with this range i have 32.58 % equity.
My friend bought power equilab and correct answer from flop to turn is 19.57 %
so his estimation this time was very close indeed.
More likely closer estimation is + 3%

"Truthfully, poker just does not work this way. "
No, it does. If i know i wont bluff with this hand it does..

No it doesn't work that way. There is no such thing as 1 card equity. You can determine how often you have the best hand at each decision point but that won't really help all that much in making decisions.

Showdown equity is defined as either the percentage of the pot you can expect to claim at showdown or the frequency with which you win the whole pot at showdown.

It has no equal in 1 street equity because the hand doesn't end until showdown or someone folds.

Btw there is already an entire thread that has had some good discussion in it that was opened recently.

No, it really doesn't. Maybe he minbets every street with his whole range. Maybe he check-folds when he misses. Maybe he bets pot with the top half of his range. Maybe he bluffs certain boards and not others.

If you have a very detailed model of how he will react to various boards and bets, then you can calculate a good idea of how much you will win/lose in the hand and decide, preflop, whether you can call or not. Without such a model there is literally no rule of thumb that can help you.

Possibly if you expect there to be very few decision points then you can - such as if you think you will push or fold on the next street. But with 2 streets of poker to go, I think you're out of luck.

I mean in the first post i gave you his range after he bets the flop with THAT sizing. With lower sizing he bets AIR hands.
So take this as sure thing and elaborate now

OK. What range does he bet on the turn for each possible turn card, and how much does he bet? Now, same question on the river.

You can see that the answer for whether you can profitably call or not, depends on the answers to these right? So against some players, it's a call, and against others it's not. Therefore, there can not be a simple rule of thumb that tells you yes or no.

So here's an example. As you say, the pot is 80 and he's bet 55. So you're getting pot odds of about 29%.

If no more bets go in on turn and river, then you need your equity to be more than 29%

If 100 is bet on the turn and nothing is bet on the river then your effective odds are
(55 + 100) / (80 + 55 + 55 + 2*100) = 39%

If 100 is bet on the turn and 200 is bet on the river, then your effective odds are
(55 + 100 + 200) / (80 + 55 + 55 + 2*100 + 2*200) = 45%

The more money goes in, the more your effective odds approach 50%. Of course, this is assuming that you are blindly calling down. I don't know what your actual strategy is, because you didn't tell me, but your effective odds will depend on that. For example, let's say we only put the $200 in on the river if we're going to win. Then your effective odds are
(55 + 100) / (80 + 55 + 55 + 2*100 + 2*200) = 19.6%

Strategy (yours and your opponents) has a *huge* effect on what your effective odds will be. I am guessing that with equilab you are essentially outlining what your strategy will be (and maybe what your opponents strategy will be like also)? I don't really know that much about it. That would be the only way to get a reasonable number.

I may be missing something.. I am new to poker so take it easy on me.

According to the range you set for the V, every hand he could have has us beat if not crushed? Do we know the pre-flop action defining this range? Is this range accurate?

Also I have a question for RustyBrooks, In your calculation of effective odds you have two examples of what river expected odds should be however both calculations are the same with different results; If 100 is bet on the turn and 200 is bet on the river, then your effective odds are
(55 + 100 + 200) / (80 + 55 + 55 + 2*100 + 2*200) = 45%
(55 + 100) / (80 + 55 + 55 + 2*100 + 2*200) = 19.6% ( knowing we always call river )

i saw the 2*200 as us calling river in both situations, how does that drastically change our effective odds?

Hopefully this was not a dumb question, like I said im just starting out in poker. (remember you were all new at one point yourselves) Thanks



**EDIT** I just noticed the two calculations are diffrent.. im sorry

I know excatly on the flop his range after his cb. So the flop action define this range. If that what you asked.
In example above if he cb this flop with 55 / 80 - 100% he has some strong value hands.

as for RustyBrooks answers - i have to think about it a little.
Turn cards:
http://i.imgur.com/byC5Wr1.png
http://i.imgur.com/pQKICb5.png
http://i.imgur.com/2lJBLP9.png

as you see: on 27 cards we will have less than 20% on the turn.
on 6 cards ~~24% equity
on 14 cards more than 50% equity

Basicly it's hard for me to tell how often he will bet the Turn - now knowing the turn card.
i could do it for each card and count - but it would take to long time.

The thing is:
a) 33 of 47 cards are not so good for us - because we wont have even 24% equity there.

b) he would bet turn and river - most of the times.
or he would bet river, x the turn.
with some flushes like 34s

i do not see options when he cb flop and x turn, x river - but maybe a little % of that situation is there.


but over-all i have in this spot 32.58 % - so what's the point of this calculation ? You make sure fold flop is accurate ?


well yeah, but this is like maximum 10% percentage of all the situation.
And in the other 90% i don't have enough equity most of the time.