I've been playing 3.5$ 9 man hyperturbo's on stars for a while now, and noticed something odd in the luck adjusted winnings line.

The last tournament I played I went out in 5th place, thus my green line going down 3.5$ ( standard ) .

The luck adjusted winnings line went down 5.75$ though.

How is it possible for me to lose more in expected value than the size of my buy in ? This just doesn't make any sense to me

Any info or explanations regarding this topic are well appreciated

I don't know anything about the "luck adjusted winnings line" per se. However, if it determined that you "should" have averaged a cash, say an average of $5.75 (i.e. your money back plus $2.25) then when you busted out, you actual result differed from your expected result by $5.75

Yes, and that does make sense.

Though the thing is, it's not about running under EV here. It's about the EV line dropping more than the size of the buyin when busting a tournament. In one tournament my EV-line even dropped 9.6$ ( an equivalent of almost 3 buyins ) .. just by playing one tournament.

It makes sense that if you get it in when drawing dead, your expected value is -3.5$ .. but I just can't figure out how you could expect to lose more than 3.5$ from playing just one tournament, with a buyin of 3.5$

As far as I know "luck adjusted winnings line" is not the same as "EV line". It's the difference between the EV and the actual result.

If the EV line was +$2.25 and the actual result was -$3.5 then the difference is $5.75

I still think you're missing the point here ..

The actual result is -$3.5
The EV line is -$5.75

You're explaining it as if my EV line is going up and green line is going down but that's not the case.

The "luck adjusted winnings line" is not the "EV line"

Check out the last tournament and you'll see what I mean

I feel like we're talking past each other. I don't know much about HEM, but you seem to be assuming that the "luck adjusted line" is the same thing as an "EV line" and I am not.

no, it's the sum of the $ev diff ( and I'm sorry for adressing it as the "EV line" )

but that still doesn't explain why I could expect to lose more than my buy-in in one tournament

I also can't expect to win more than the maximum for one tournament, or can I ?

So, let's say
luck adjusted winnings = EV - actual

Does that seem reasonable? If not, then what do you feel is the relationship between these 3 distinct numbers?

If your EV was +2.25 and your actual result was -3.50, then what would luck adjusted winnings equal?

that would be +2.25 - (-3.50) = +5.75 .. and not -5.75

Sorry, I meant EV - actual, so that when you run below EV your adjusted winnings are negative.

I am not sure if I understand what the luck Adjusted lline is. If it is the same as the allinEV adjusted line on HEM1 then it is possible for the allinEVadjusted to get to more than one buy-in difference per tourny.
For every hand in a tourny HEM tracked the effect of any allinEV, it also applies ICM to each hand to calculate how much $EV this hand was worth, at the end of the tourny it sums these to see how much you would have won if this allinEV's had all gone perfectly to the long run values.

If you have AA early full stacked and get this cracked by AKo you have lost most of a buy-in due to running bad, if you still have some chips left you might build this back up without showdowns so you now have lost almost a full BI but now have the average stack, around 1 buyin's worth of chips. if the same thing happens, you get your AA cracked by AKo, you will find that you have lost almost 2BIs worth of $EV.

In this last tournament you must have lost a decent amount of chips as a non-favorite and then made come back without too much allinEVadj change and then lost the rest of this again as a non-favourite - it's like you lost an extra BI's worth of allinEV.

I think if you look at the hands in that individual tourny you will see that you lose an allin or two where you aren't favorite but then make a good come back with non-allins only to lose this again in an allin later.

This effect does go both ways and the opposite can happen if you keep getting unlucky in allinEV but re-build, if later on you get 'unlucky' again your allinEVAdj line might go up by 2 BI's but your actual goes down by one BI - a difference of 3 BIs between them.

Overall the allinEVAdj red line is a slightly better predictor of your 'true' roi and in this data it looks like you have been running very hot. It's not the whole story though and in 31 tournies the +/- confidence in your roi is massive, the CI of the red is a bit narrower but still huge.

After several thousand tournies you should see the standard green and red reach about the same point on the right of the graph but the green will be far more volatile. Even in this small amount of data you can see the red is much 'smoother' than the green, if you show enough on the graph both these lines will appear to converge.

the 31 games were just from one session I played, certainly not the whole amount of hypers I played

Thanks for the explanation, however I still feel something is wrong with that red line ... just can't say what it is

Maybe you got it in bad multiple times.

For example, lets say you went all in with KK and your opponent had AA. You won the hand and doubled up.

This means you theoretically lost $2.83 of your buy in.

2 hands later you get your stack in with TT V JJ and suck out and win again.

This means you theoretically lost another $2.83.

So you've lost $2.83 twice even though your initial buy in was only $3.50.

This is how I've been making sense of it...