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Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament

11-07-2013 , 12:03 AM
Mods: Feel free to move wherever you see fit. Any given post could be appropriate for more than one section.

Yes, having any combination of AA gives you the highest long term EV against every other possible hand combination.

However, AA obviously loses value with each additional person playing in the hand to the point of being less than 51% equity.

Hypothetical Situation

Assumptions:

1.) Hero in late position with AA in a tournament with a short stack (5-10 BB)
2.) In front of you are three limpers, one min raiser and one caller, all with above average stack sizes.
3.) We are not near the money bubble.
4.) If I shove the rest of my chips I will get at least three callers.

Question: Is it better in the long run to shove or fold? How much should the buy in of the tournament affect the decision?

(Please, no trollish banter or smug quips; Just opinions and reasons.)

Last edited by Mr. Action; 11-07-2013 at 12:23 AM.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 12:47 AM
obv shove even if you get called by the whole table its +ev. folding aces makes no sense in any preflop situation.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 12:54 AM
Yes, the hand itself is +EV. But are you saying I am a favorite with AA fading at least three people with non-random hands on a complete board? I plugged in some realistic calling range hands for the three opponents, and was a favorite. Yet add one more person in the mix, and I'm 46% favorite.

In extreme situations with lots of people against me I can't be a favorite any more. If I'm 51% or less to win pre flop, shouldn't there be a better spot to get my chips in? Like I'd rather have Ts9s or JT vs. fewer people than AA vs 4 or more if I have a better % chance of winning short/medium/long term.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 01:22 AM
Against 4 players you are getting 4:1 odds on your money so to be profitable you need to win more than 20% of the time with AA you are a 46% favorite which is more than the 20+% needed for this to be +EV so thats why you dont fold aces preflop.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 02:26 AM
Yeah, I met someone who said they would fold AA if everyone at their table pushed all-in preflop. I argued with them for like 10 minutes that they were wrong. Unfortunately I didn't convince him.

Hopefully I will convince you. It is true that you will lose a majority of the time. In fact you will only win roughly 30% of the time when all-in with AA versus 9 other people. However the amount of money in the pot makes up for this by a large amount. In your scenario the same rules apply.

In fact, a dream scenario with AA while all-in is to have as many people call you as possible. Your chances of winning goes down, but your expectation is even better.

Some people argue, "well I could wait for a better spot." This is a huge mistake, because this spot is massively profitable and is such a strong edge that you should not give it up.

In a normal tournament or cash game you should never ever fold AA preflop.

There are situations in a satellite game where the payoffs for the place you come in are the same. Like if 1st place through 5th place got paid the same amount. In these games, there may be a situation where you might fold AA given that there are 6 people left.

Here is an exaggerated example: You and 5 other people have $1000 in chips with $2/$1 blinds in a satellite tourney. A sixth person at your table has 5$. That player pushes all-in and someone else with $1000 pushes his entire stack all-in. You can fold AA in that spot. Even if that player shows 72o you should still fold your AA. If you are confused about this. Just tell me and I will elaborate.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 03:07 AM
Basically you are saying barring unique scenarios which greatly reward outlasting one or two more players in a tournament, you would never give up AA regardless.

I think a good example of such a scenario is if I'm a player (without a significant bankroll) in the WSOP M.E. on the bubble, and the chance to let at least one more player potentially bust first (if they are SS'ed as well) is well worth letting go of the AA, despite giving up immediate EV value.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 03:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by trolololo
folding aces makes no sense in any preflop situation.
Sat tourney, 3 players get a ticket, the others nothing. 5 players left. Blinds: 200/400.

Player 1 (10k chips) shoves, player 2 (9k chips) calls, player 3 (400 chips) folds, player 4 (400 chips) folds. You (8995 chips) call? I don't think so.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 04:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
Sat tourney, 3 players get a ticket, the others nothing. 5 players left. Blinds: 200/400.

Player 1 (10k chips) shoves, player 2 (9k chips) calls, player 3 (400 chips) folds, player 4 (400 chips) folds. You (8995 chips) call? I don't think so.

except sattys yeah i knew that
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 06:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by trolololo
except sattys yeah i knew that
It doen't have to be a sattelite. It just has to be a bubble where 2 deep stacks are all in and your short stack's only value is in making the extra money from an elimiination

3 players left in a tourny.

Button 1 million chips all in
Small blind 1 million chips all in

You in the big blind. 500 measly chips extra to throw in or you can fold. If you call, it's a big mistake even with AA.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-07-2013 , 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Action
.
Hypothetical Situation
Assumptions:

1.) Hero in late position with AA in a tournament with a short stack (5-10 BB)
2.) In front of you are three limpers, one min raiser and one caller, all with above average stack sizes.
3.) We are not near the money bubble.
4.) If I shove the rest of my chips I will get at least three callers.

Question: Is it better in the long run to shove or fold? How much should the buy in of the tournament affect the decision?
In your hypothetical situation, a call is a no-brainer. With 5-10 BB not near the bubble, you are close to being blinded out with no chance of prize money. You are being given a chance to at least quadruple up (>=3 callers) with the best possible hand.

Yes, the more callers, the lower your equity but the more callers the larger the pot, so your cEV is positive. I did an analysis assuming callers are all playing top 5% and your EV increases with the number of callers, even though your equity is going down. As stated earlier, the increase in pot size more than makes up for the decrease in equity.

If very late in the tournament, then ICM comes into play but I can’t see many situations where I would not play aces.

Worrying about tournament buy-in is as non-productive as worrying about money you may have put in a hand earlier. It’s gone; worry about now
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-08-2013 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by trolololo
Against 4 players you are getting 4:1 odds on your money so to be profitable you need to win more than 20% of the time with AA you are a 46% favorite which is more than the 20+% needed for this to be +EV so thats why you dont fold aces preflop.
This...with the exception of a satellite on the bubble

Say top 10 get a ticket to a main event...there are 11 left...you have an average stack and pick up AA in late position....giant stack moves in in early position and there is another player with 2bb's

edit: oh, I see the satellite scenario has been discussed....grunched...sorry

I think it would be correct to fold AA in this circumstance...with someone blinding out and a flat payout for the top 10
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-09-2013 , 01:25 AM
Thanks for the responses everyone. Even the obvious decisions are worth discussion.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-09-2013 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Action
Thanks for the responses everyone. Even the obvious decisions are worth discussion.
not this one. This one was too obvious
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-09-2013 , 10:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by carranzapz
not this one. This one was too obvious
Thanks for your contribution to the discussion, troll. Now go back under the bridge.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-11-2013 , 12:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Action
Thanks for your contribution to the discussion, troll. Now go back under the bridge.
Always going to be one haha
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote
11-11-2013 , 12:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdogedog
Always going to be one haha
Good to give em a snack every now and then. Trolls need to eat too.
Folding AA vs. Many Opponents in Tournament Quote

      
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