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Flop probability Flop probability

02-05-2024 , 09:00 AM
Is there a resource for flop probability, as opposed to a weighted subset that serves to aggregate the entire gametree?
potentially one that accounts for card removal from bunching (unlikely).
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02-05-2024 , 10:14 AM
I mean you can do it yourself.

The number of flops without card removal is just:

52*51*50/3! = 132,600/(3*2*1) = 132,600/6 = 22,100

Different flop types have different multiplicity/weightings:

2c 2h 2s = 2c 2h 2d, there are 4 combinations of a 2-2-2 flop, or basically any trip flop.

2c 3h 4s = rainbow non paired board, 24 combinations of this

2c 3c 4c = monotone board = 4 combos (heart/club/spade/diamond)

2c 3c 4s = two toned non-paired board = 12 combos

2c, 2s, 3c = paired and two-toned board = 12 combos

2c 2s 3h = paired and rainbow board = 12 combos

You can simplify the 22,100 flops down to 1,755 strategically unique flop textures and each one has a different weight such that when multiplied by their weighting you'll get back to the 22,100 flops. The number of combos for each flop will be either 4, 12, or 24.
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02-05-2024 , 10:51 AM
Perfect. Thank you
Shouldn't be too much work depending how strict I categorise. Just wanted a order of priority to add to the $EV for the drills
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02-05-2024 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dejavudu666
Perfect. Thank you
Shouldn't be too much work depending how strict I categorise. Just wanted a order of priority to add to the $EV for the drills
sure, PM me and I'll give you a useful spreadsheet I made for this (if you want it).
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02-05-2024 , 12:55 PM
Is it the EV diff for RB across 1755 (already nabbed it if so Flop probability)
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02-05-2024 , 01:37 PM
EV is a function of ranges, position, stack depth, and many other constraints. So, no.
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02-05-2024 , 01:54 PM
I see. I thought you meant just to have each flop in excel. I'll definitely take the spreadsheet either way.
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