Ev question
03-23-2011
, 09:55 AM
03-23-2011
, 01:37 PM
03-23-2011
, 02:27 PM
03-23-2011
, 07:08 PM
Quote:
$1/$2 NL 6 MAX - (But 4 handed)
Hero $200
Villain $200
SB $1
BB $2
BTN (Villain)
CO (Hero)
Action:
CO (Hero) - Raises $20
BTN (Villain) - 3bets to $46
SB & BB fold
Hero Pushes $180
Hero Equity 52.31%
Villain 47%
Villain Fold % 53%
Villain Call % 47%
our EV $29.56
is this correct?
Hero $200
Villain $200
SB $1
BB $2
BTN (Villain)
CO (Hero)
Action:
CO (Hero) - Raises $20
BTN (Villain) - 3bets to $46
SB & BB fold
Hero Pushes $180
Hero Equity 52.31%
Villain 47%
Villain Fold % 53%
Villain Call % 47%
our EV $29.56
is this correct?
= +36.57
Villain calls = .47(.5231x403) + .53(.47x-200)
=(.47x210.8) + (.53x-94)
= 99.07 + -49.82
= +49.25
EV = 36.57+49.25
= 85.82
There's another answer for you
Can anyone spot a hole in my math?
03-23-2011
, 08:06 PM
Quote:
Villain folds = .53 x 69
= +36.57
Villain calls = .47(.5231x403) + .53(.47x-200)
=(.47x210.8) + (.53x-94)
= 99.07 + -49.82
= +49.25
EV = 36.57+49.25
= 85.82
There's another answer for you
Can anyone spot a hole in my math?
= +36.57
Villain calls = .47(.5231x403) + .53(.47x-200)
=(.47x210.8) + (.53x-94)
= 99.07 + -49.82
= +49.25
EV = 36.57+49.25
= 85.82
There's another answer for you
Can anyone spot a hole in my math?
The EV of your shove can be calculated like:
Villain folds = .53 x 69
= +36.57
Villain calls = .47(.5231x223) + .53(.47x-180)
=(.47x116.6) + (.53x-84.6)
= 54.8 + -44.83
= +9.97
EV = 36.57+9.97
= +$46.54
So I guess I agree with answer 3 (allowing for rounding errors).
03-24-2011
, 10:40 AM
Quote:
At the time hero pushed his remaining stack of 180
>If villain folds (Pf=0.53), hero wins 3+20+46 = 69
>If villain calls and hero wins (eq=0.5231)), hero wins 69+(180-26)=223
Note 223 equals villain’s stack (200 plus the blinds (3) plus the 20 hero invested earlier in the betting
>If villain calls and hero loses, hero loses his push of 180
EV=Pf*69 + (1-Pf)*(eq*223-(1-eq)*180)
EV=51.05
One more answer that hopefully resolves the issue.
>If villain folds (Pf=0.53), hero wins 3+20+46 = 69
>If villain calls and hero wins (eq=0.5231)), hero wins 69+(180-26)=223
Note 223 equals villain’s stack (200 plus the blinds (3) plus the 20 hero invested earlier in the betting
>If villain calls and hero loses, hero loses his push of 180
EV=Pf*69 + (1-Pf)*(eq*223-(1-eq)*180)
EV=51.05
One more answer that hopefully resolves the issue.
03-24-2011
, 11:40 AM
Actually, I have drafted about 150 pages on hold'em mathematics, statistics and probability with the main theme being that if you make +EV plays you will, by definition, be a winning player. In addition, I have over several years developed a number of Excel based VBA programs that allow me to solve EV and poker probability related questions quickly. The problem is that as I keep on reading and contributing to these forums, more interesting stuff keeps coming up, so I never know when to get 'off the pot' so to speak.
03-24-2011
, 04:40 PM
Quote:
Thanks. Can I hire you as my publicist?
Actually, I have drafted about 150 pages on hold'em mathematics, statistics and probability with the main theme being that if you make +EV plays you will, by definition, be a winning player. In addition, I have over several years developed a number of Excel based VBA programs that allow me to solve EV and poker probability related questions quickly. The problem is that as I keep on reading and contributing to these forums, more interesting stuff keeps coming up, so I never know when to get 'off the pot' so to speak.
Actually, I have drafted about 150 pages on hold'em mathematics, statistics and probability with the main theme being that if you make +EV plays you will, by definition, be a winning player. In addition, I have over several years developed a number of Excel based VBA programs that allow me to solve EV and poker probability related questions quickly. The problem is that as I keep on reading and contributing to these forums, more interesting stuff keeps coming up, so I never know when to get 'off the pot' so to speak.
You should try and sell the excel sheets or turn into an AP