Is this correct to calculate how wide can I shove 100 BB - Poker Theory

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Is this correct to calculate how wide can I shove 100 BB

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11-05-2014 , 06:17 AM

activee

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 82

If Villains calls only with AA and we are HU and he is in the BB:

Gain: 1BB * 1320 = 1320 <= what I win the times he folds
+ 6*14.80 = 88,8 <= what I win the times he calls and I win
Lose: 6 *85.20 = 511,2 <= what I lose when he calls and I lose

total gains = +897,6 bb

is this correct ?

I'll do KK,AA just to be sure.

Gain: 1BB * 1314 = 1314 <= what I win the times he folds
+ 12*16.20 =194.4 <= what I win the times he calls and I win
Lose: 12 *83.80 =1005.6 <= what I lose when he calls and I lose

total gains = +502,4

I'm trying to create my own table so i need to know if that's correct.

Last edited by activee; 11-05-2014 at 06:28 AM.

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11-05-2014 , 07:02 AM

activee

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 82

KK,AK,AA:
1298+28*26.51-28*73.49 = -17.44

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11-05-2014 , 09:17 AM

just_grindin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,263

You can do it this way but you should divide your result by 1326 to get the profit per hand which is much more useful.

Also this method is limited if villain's calling decision isn't based on combinations, but that probably won't be the case in an all in scenario.

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11-05-2014 , 10:23 AM

kamitis

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,080

Your formula and deviating to 1326 to get winrate for each hand give pretty precise result but not count in our blockers.

Last edited by kamitis; 11-05-2014 at 10:35 AM.

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11-05-2014 , 10:28 AM

kamitis

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,080

In this extreme case where only AA call our equity with Ax is so low that it not even change that much from random hand shipping.

But in case where he have AK,KK,AA and wider calling range our blocker can change some if you working on table further.

Last edited by kamitis; 11-05-2014 at 10:37 AM.

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11-05-2014 , 11:06 AM

activee

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 82

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamitis

I'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean that we can manipulate our equity by not shoving Ax and Kx vs that specific range? But then we have to calculate what we lose by not shoving them aswell. I'll do that it's interesting.

Or did you mean that my formula doesn't take into account that when I've a blocker he has less probability to have AA. ? If that's the case do you know how to take it into account because honnestly I'm not sure. Doesn't equilab takes this into account already when doing the odds ?

Last edited by activee; 11-05-2014 at 11:16 AM.

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11-05-2014 , 11:25 AM

kamitis

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,080

Quote:

Originally Posted by activee

Or did you mean that my formula doesn't take into account that when I've a blocker he has less probability to have AA. ? If that's the case do you know how to take it into account because honnestly I'm not sure. Doesn't equilab takes this into account already when doing the odds ?

^^This

I think equilab or any other similar software not take into consideration other player ranges blockers when calculate equty.
ICMIZER and other icm calculators (obv there is no icm heads up and it chipev what icmizer calculate as chipev) take into consideration blockers as calculations depends lot more on our range blocking opponent range then in equilab.

If we want do it by hand and take and discuss it to lower scale it will take some time but definitely possible. PM if you want discuss this further as it probably will not be possible in forum thread.

Last edited by kamitis; 11-05-2014 at 11:38 AM.

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11-05-2014 , 11:47 AM

kamitis

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,080

Also note that our shipping range going forward beyond AK/KK highly depends what hands we choose to put in (more pp or more non pp, more Ax or more Kx ect)

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11-05-2014 , 01:00 PM

Clicken

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 243

Quote:

Originally Posted by kamitis

I think equilab or any other similar software not take into consideration other player ranges blockers when calculate equty.

I was under the impression that calculators such as pokerstove did take into account blockers.

According to Pokerstove KK has 43.967% equity vs AA, AKo

It seems to me that if blockers were not taken into account, then this would be equivalent to the average weighted equities of

KK vs AA (18.054% equity, Six combos of AA)

and

KK vs AKo (69.881%, 12 combos of AKo)

so 1/3(18.054%) + 2/3(69.881%) = 52.605%

So, it's not equivalent. This points to the fact that blockers are taken into account, and that when pokerstove calculates the equity of KK vs AA, AKo, AA accounts for more than 1/3 of combos in villain's range (6/15 if I'm not mistaken).

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11-05-2014 , 01:07 PM

#10

kamitis

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,080

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clicken

hah, each day we learn something new. Thanks for showing me it, i admit i was wrong there, always was thinking it take only board texture blockers into consideration but yes it make sense to software block each other hands as them is in one specific hand.

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11-05-2014 , 01:15 PM

#11

Clicken

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 243

Quote:

Originally Posted by activee

You need to take into account the size of the pot, stack sizes, and how much additional money you need to bet in order to shove (this is dependent on whether or not you're in the small blind).

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11-05-2014 , 01:57 PM

#12

Clicken

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 243

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clicken

This points to the fact that blockers are taken into account, and that when pokerstove calculates the equity of KK vs AA, AKo, AA accounts for more than 1/3 of combos in villain's range (6/15 if I'm not mistaken).

I was mistaken here. KK blocks six and not three combos of AKo. Combinations of AA then accounts for 6/12 or 50% of all combinations in the blocked range. We find that if we then calculate the weighted equities as before (a 1:1 weighting) then this accords with Pokerstove's actual results.

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11-06-2014 , 04:01 AM

#13

StMisbehavin

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 151

If you're shoving at 100BB, the perfect opponent will defend somewhat wider than you think. In the strict jam-or-fold game, BB calls with TT+, AQs+, and AK, as well as a percentage of 99 (27.7%) and AQo (14.8%).

Against this calling range, your optimal jamming range is 88+, 66, QTs+, A5s-A3s, AJo+, and a percentage of 77 (8.1%) and KQ (0.2%). This is not a typo! Against the optimal calling range, jamming 66 does a fraction better than jamming 77. However, if you have other options, jam-or-fold is a horrible strategy that has an EV of -86.9 cents on the dollar at this level.

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11-06-2014 , 05:59 AM

#14

juggle5344

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 548

Quote:

Originally Posted by StMisbehavin

How did you come up with these ranges?

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11-06-2014 , 02:27 PM

#15

StMisbehavin

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 151

Quote:

Originally Posted by juggle5344

How did you come up with these ranges?

The details are over here. The linked spreadsheet will compute ranges at any stack size.

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11-06-2014 , 03:38 PM

#16

juggle5344

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 548

Thanks for sharing. Looks interesting.

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