all my monthly graphs look like this. i have a 500k sample, and only 1 month did i run neutral ev, all the others im over.

am i just a total luck box, or is there something adrift with the calculations

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ive got some friends who think im running incredibly hot, but i dont feel like i am tbh. my ego tells me that i cant constantly be +ev every month as surely i cant be winning more coin flips than my opponents over hundreds of samples, every month, can i ?. i play a min of 50k hands a month fwiw

im interested in hearing anyone else's similar experience with this software

I do not have your "problem", so rest assured - there is no such bug in the software.

You know you just jinxed yourself for the rest of this year and next, right? :-)

I have the same graphs, i dont really get it either. It is interesting that when u win a pot u are a big favorite in, it will still say u ran a little over E.V. which you obviously did if you are less than 100% to win the pot. I think that just adds up alot if u get ur money in good a fair amount

So if you guys haven't felt like you've gotten extra lucky, it probably means you'be been winning a lot of your 80-20 and 70-30 flips (so you win more than your ev). But rest assured, your days are coming... And then you can be like krmont or someone who claims to be 200bis below ev.

There's a lot of stuff that doesn't get to showdown, that doesn't get all in. Those hands are probably where the bulk of your ev is bad. That's always been my assumption, hell. I switched from a showdown style to a non showdown style on accident (just happened to find a lot of spots where I could get some easy cash with bluffs), and I found my ev to be extremely negative for that period.

The reason? I was check raising a lot, and if I got there (without getting it all in) they'd generally fold, so my +ev never got recorded. Now of course that works both ways, the times you don't get there it doesn't get recorded either, but my theory is that if you're running way too good ev wise, it's probably due to non all in pots going wrong.

If there is no all-in, then the winnings and all-in ev lines are the same.

If you're responding to me, what I mean is that while you're +EV according to HM, the hands that didn't get all in can be where your -EV is happening. Say you get Ah3h, you raise preflop and get called, flop comes 5h2h9c. Someone bets, you call, you miss, and you end up folding to their raise. There's -EV that doesn't get captured by the program. But if some people can run +100BI EV on HM, others can run -100BI EV, what's to say the same can't happen in pots that aren't all in. Thus your -EV situations aren't recorded.

To simplify in case I'm bad at explaining, because pots that aren't all in don't affect your EV, you could be running -EV in non all in pots, and that could make up for all this positive EV in all in pots.

$7000 difference is only maybe 10 BI or so averaged over those stakes. that's basically winnings 5 more coinflips than you should. not an unlikely thing to have happen.

the sample size is only 1 month, this month.

it has happened every single month, for a 12 month sample

For 180,000 hands i'm 45 buy ins below EV, so enjoy your lucks while it lasts.

If you play at a site that doesn't show your opponents hole cards at showdown if they lose, it will skew the graph since the hands used for the ev-calculations will be weighted towards hands you lose.

Without thinking much about it, I'd think this would mean a graph that would show you running worse than you'd actually been though instead of better.

Also, there is/was problems with the ev-calculations for short stacks and also multi-way pots, but I don't think the results of these should be huge. Not sure if any or both of those are still an issue, but that can probably be confirmed over at the HM forums.

you're running well. enjoy it for the rest of us, plz.

and, psychologically speaking, i think it's a lot more noticeable you're running bad than good.

Ok its simple really and all the result of the massive number of hands you play daily .

Say 75k hands at 0.05bb/h and sd of 50bb/100 hands . Say also the game is played at 5-10 (to take the average of the samples mentioned in various levels) . What is expected then? You expect to be up 0.05*75000*10=
$37500 hahaha! Of course ! Where are we? At 37877. Ok . So we are about where we should be with average luck. What is the sd in all this if at 50bb/100 hands ? Well its 1370 bb. So about $13700.

Now i dont know your real sd and ev but using those plausible estimates for a very good yet volatile player at this level one gets basically your result and also an sd that is about 35%-40% of the EV per month . This means you need to be below -2.5sd to have a flat month or worse. Well good luck with that lol. And in fact this tells me that you will never have a huge losing month assuming your game remains the same (same levels , opponents , skill no tilt or mental block by any outside problems , health , drive to play etc). You will occasionally say 1 time or so in 2 years have a down month or flat .


And yes this is the chart we all have by the way when we have at least 0.05bb/hand but its less impressive money wise for most because to properly play 5-10 one needs still 20-30k bankroll and hopefully more so new good players are not yet there but certainly good veterans of over 2-3 years can easily. So yes we are all lucky but the luck i am talking about has nothing to do with poker cards and everything to do with something else...

Enjoy the games you play and do not try to kill the hen that lays the golden eggs. If one can have 0.05 at 5-10 then stay there forever and make (given the amazing big volume of hands you have per day which will certainly kill me if i did it due to lack of interest after a point) some 300k per year if you can handle it mentally. Because at this pace you will soon have the bankroll needed to play eg the market with derivatives in exactly the fashion of plus EV you play poker exploiting rare opportunities (something most day traders cannot do because they need to have permanent action daily which blocks them from the real rare gems that require exactly like poker extreme patience and cash flow and plenty of time) . If you can have a net inflow of 30k even 15k per month then clearly all you need to do is wait for crashes to happen , homes to be foreclosed and bought dirty cheap and other opportunities that are equivalent to AA all ins preflop when one has a steady plus inflow per month to play the market right any market even flat ones as long as current form of capitalism remains alive (probably no more than 50 years though)


Ps: How on earth can you play so many hands per day ? How many tables ? What site? You need to be 4x at 6 hours per day or 3x 8h all very tiring unless you have no real job (and even then) . But 0.05 at 5/10 in 4 tables is very tough , they have to be idiots or you have to be running on clone brains . Make sure you are telling the truth my friend although i will take your word for it for the time being. Still most internet poker prodigies can typically do many tables well . Personally i hate it because i am still developing my game and for that i need a serious approach where money/volume is not yet the objective as long as its plus of course lol , but performance per hand is and learning which at multiple tables are both horribly inhibited.

maximumprobability. thats a wicked post my friend. you are a legend

play anything up to 12 tables "when running on clone brains" and target 20k hands a week, its only around 30-40 hours

id be lying if i said i understood any of it thou. ;p

edit- minus ev, i ply across 4 sites, and i think they all reveal teh holes cards

maximumprobability that post went way over my head

but one thing i can see is you being mesmerised about the hands per day or hour or whatever. Almost accusing the clarkster of lying

He dont be lying my friend, i mean how about 18 days of 16 tables 12-15hrs a day consectutively. How does that make you feel? You got a formula ready for my mental state?

Srsly some of u guys need to put your paper and pencil away, stop with all these ridic formulas, and have a nice big wank, then put in a marathon 16 tabling session. But please dont give me an algebric equation for the perfect wank.

All this time working out your formulae you could be playing some of the pokerz, experience is the best form of learning imo.

and throw away bad life opportunities the same way you would discard 2 and teh 3 off suits

keep up the hard work man. big things