Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 4,240
The fact that someone folds 60% of the time to a continuation bet does not mean you should always do it. I think your logic is, "If the pot is $1,000 and I bet $1,000 and he folds, I make $1,000, if he calls or raises I'm at worst out $1,000; if I win $1,000 60% of the time and lose less than $1,000 the other 40%, I'm ahead."
The problem is you would have won a lot of those 60% anyway, and you might have been able to win more than $1,000. Some of those 40% you could have saved yourself some money.
Betting T8 on an 8-K-A flop is a bluff, not a continuation bet.
You make a continuation bet when you were the preflop aggressor and either you hit the flop or it's likely no one hit the flop. It's a strong play that you should make almost all the time when the situation arises. You could even do it all the time, it gives no extra information to the other players. I just think in general it's good to vary play.
The reason to make the bet is to collect the pot when neither of you hit the flop, and to get some calls when you do hit it; and to collect information about the other player's hand.
For example, suppose you hold AQo. 32% of the flops have an A or Q, on most of these you're pretty sure you're ahead. 36% have no card higher than T, on most of these you're pretty sure the other guy didn't hit it. Even if he hit his kicker, he may well fold to a continuation bet. 31% have at least one K or J with no A or Q, on these you're likely behind.
So 68% of the time (not exactly 68% because it depends on straight and flush possibilities, and the preflop betting, and the other player, and your reads) you make the bet. Most players will fold about two thirds of the time, and you pick up the pot easily. If the other player calls, you usually have a decent draw, maybe a 25% chance or better. That's not too bad since you put up $1,000 for a $3,000 pot.
If you get raised, you have to make a decision. You will sometimes have bet into a set or other top hand; you will also get tested sometimes by good players with nothing.
If you check instead of making a continuation bet, you have to expect a raise, and you'll usually fold. It's not smart to contest things often when you missed the flop and the other guy probably hit it. You do it once in a while to protect yourself only.
Stack sizes are not critical here. Even if you want to stack the other guy, checking is not the best way to do it. Since people make continuation bets with weak hands, it shouldn't scare anyone; also check/calling or check/raising is much stronger than making the c-bet. If you're afraid of being stacked, make the c-bet and fold to a reraise, find out early and cheaply that the other guy has the nuts.