Hey all...

Just wondering how to add available outs in a semi-bluff situation to a pot odds calculation

So, for example:


You have 8 river outs on an open-ended straight draw on the Turn...

You bet All-in for $6 into a pot of $12

For the bluff to be profitable your opponent has to essentially fold 33% of the time... getting 2:1 on your semi-bluff bet...

How do i now incorporate the 8 outs that I have in case my semi-bluff push gets called?..

How about if I have a stack left after the turn and it just gets flatcalled?

Thanks fellas..

Hi,

I think you're really trying to ask what your expecting value is in this situation, therefore this technically isn't about "pot odds", and probably is the reason to why your post hasn't been answered.

So to calculate your EV you first have to estimate the likelyhood of you being called. Let's say you estimate 50% of the time your opponent folds and you win $12. (Which is probably rather optimistic in situations similar to the one you described). So first...

.50 x 12 = 6

Then you get called 50% of the time. 80% of the time you get called you lose $6 and 20% you win $18 ($12 in the pot + $6 opponent calls). So...

(.50 x .80 x -6) = -2.4 and (.50 x .20 x 18) = 1.8

6 + 1.8 - 2.4 = 5.40

Therefore your equity would be +$5.40 making the semi bluff profitable assuming your opponent folds 50% of the time.

Note: Even if your estimate of your opponent folding is 10% your move is still profitable, so no need to go mathcrazy in situations such as these.

Sorry, I don't really know how to go about answering your second question about getting flatcalled. What's the card on the turn, what are your stacks....what's the question?

3 options:
He Folds and you win 12
He Calls and you win 12
He calls and you lose 6.

Let's estimate him folding at only 20% (meaning if you had no outs, this would be a bad play).

Also, note that 8 outs out of a remaining 46 cards make you a winner. This is about a 17 percent chance of winning.

(his chance of folding x pot) + (your equity x pot) - ([his equity x chance of calling] x pot) = EV

(.2 x 12 ) + (.17 x 12) - ([.8*.83] x 6) = 2.4 + 2.04 - 3.984 = .456

So, In this case, your EV would be +46 cents.

Does that make sense?

Also, it is late, so if I've messed up my math, someone can feel free to correct it.

I'm pretty sure that if he calls and you win then you win more than if he folds.

Ya, I'm pretty sure my initial math was correct. Of course the estimation could be varied from 50% to 20% or whatever. 20% of the time he calls you will win $18, not $12.

Oops!

He folds you win 12
He calls you win 18
He calls you lose 6


So this: (.17 x 12)

Should read (.17 x 18)

and then change the math from there and you're good.

Thanks for catching that. I shouldn't do math when I'm tired lol

Thanks for the help guys...very helpful.. its an ongoing process trying to master this stuff!