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bluff to value ratio bluff to value ratio

02-05-2020 , 06:55 AM
Hi, I know basic ratio which we can read everywhere if I bet
2/3 of pot my ratio is 33%bluff / 66%value

But where did the numbers come from? I looking for the mathematical formula for one hour on the internet but I can find it.

Please, can you help me how to find out which ratio I have to use if I bet/overbet for example
100% of pot
150% of pot
200% of pot

THANKS
bluff to value ratio Quote
02-05-2020 , 12:52 PM
btw that's the indifference ratio for a pot sized bet, not 2/3p
so the pot is 1$, you bet 1$
you have 2 value for every 1 bluff combo
all your value combos have to win at sd vs v's calls and all your bluffs have to lose
no longer realistic if v had slowplayed a strong hand that beats at least 1 of your value bets
so you bet 3 times, twice for value, 1 as a bluff
v calls 3 times, once he wins 2$, twice he loses 1$, ev=0$
v folds 3 times, ev=0$
2/1 value/bluff ratio makes his bluff catchers indifferent between calling and folding
it also means you win the full pot every time you bet
either he folds 3 times and you collect 1$ x 3, ev=3$, that's 1$ for every time you bet
or he calls 3 times, twice you win 2$ (pot+his call) x 2 = 4$, 1 time you lose your 1$ bet, ev=3$

if you bet <pot, you need to bluff less
if you bet >pot you're allowed to bluff more

now go figure out the ratios through trial and error with the little toy game math above, you'l learn better on your own
bluff to value ratio Quote
02-05-2020 , 05:36 PM
You can make a simple spreadsheet for this.

In column 1, have the bet-size as a percentage of the pot.
In column 2, have the amount of equity villain needs to breakeven vs that bet-size. (This is simply [bet-size/(pot before bet + 2*betsize)].
In column 3, have the proportion of the betting range that should be value-bets. (This is just 100% minus whatever the figure in column 2 is).

So you get something like

Bet size | Equity reqd by caller | Value Proportion
50% | 25% | 75%
100% | 33.33% | 66.67%
200% | 40% | 60%

i.e. When you make a 1/2 pot bet, villain's bluffcatchers need 25% equity to break even, so 75% of your range should be value-bets (3:1 v:b ratio)
When you pot it, villain needs 33.33% equity, so 66.67% of betting range should be value (2:1 v:b)
For a 2x pot bet, villain needs 40% equity, so you should have a value hand 60% of the time (6:4 or 3:2 v:b)
bluff to value ratio Quote
02-06-2020 , 11:57 AM
Big thanks guys. You tore down my illusions about the ratios. I don't even know where I got the wrong information I had so far. But it was problably calculation for River bluff or it is valid for all streets?

According my informations the ratio changes based on street (we bets 100% of pot)
Flop 1: 2
Turn 1: 1
River 2: 1

Or is this only another bulshit? Thanks
bluff to value ratio Quote
02-06-2020 , 01:44 PM
I think it is based on river only (when equity is either 100% or 0% for a specific combo, barring chops).
Flop/turn the story changes as far as I know, so I'd call it bullshit. But let's see what the truly theory knowledgeable guys have to say.
bluff to value ratio Quote
02-06-2020 , 08:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TK1991
According my informations the ratio changes based on street (we bets 100% of pot)
Flop 1: 2
Turn 1: 1
River 2: 1

Or is this only another bulshit? Thanks
This idea of ratios on the flop and turn arised from some maths in Janda's first book, and it got popularised before solvers came out and showed it wasn't particularly accurate for real world poker games. As Janda pointed out in his second book, the terms "value-bet" and "bluff" don't even make much sense on the early streets, and it's often the case that some draws have more equity than many made hands.
Solvers also showed that the best line is almost never pot-pot-pot. Sizes of bets change according to the make-up of ranges. Ratios of value bets and bluffs are driven more by range inequalities. e.g. If you have a large range advantage, you can 'get away with' more bluffs.
bluff to value ratio Quote

      
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