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01-18-2012 , 05:49 PM

cashnotakite

grinder

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 446

need help with this;

If I make a pot size bet with a pure bluff which has no chance of being good if called, what is the percentage I need to get this through?

1. I bet 100 into a 100 pot, hence an even money bet,hence it needs to be successful 50% of the time.

2. I bet 100 into a 100 pot,hence I am laying any villain pot odds of 2-1, hence it needs to be successful 66% of the time.

thanks in advance

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01-18-2012 , 05:51 PM

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

You need him to fold 50%. He needs to be good 66%. These are 2 different things. The reason for the difference is, you are risking 1 to win 1. He is risking 1 to win 2.

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01-18-2012 , 08:47 PM

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

Quote:

Originally Posted by RustyBrooks

You need him to fold 50%. He needs to be good 66%. These are 2 different things. The reason for the difference is, you are risking 1 to win 1. He is risking 1 to win 2.

Should it be: He needs to be good 33%?

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01-18-2012 , 08:49 PM

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

Quote:

Originally Posted by au4all

Should it be: He needs to be good 33%?

Sorry, correct, 1/3.

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01-19-2012 , 01:50 PM

captZEEbo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,991

I like to think of it as "amount called"/"pot size won (including last bet)"
so 100/(100+100) = 100/200 = .5
and if villain calls the 100 it's: 100/(200+100) = 100/300 = .333

To me it makes the most sense. More examples...
bluffing 150 to win a 100 pot: 150/(100+150) = 150/250 = .6
now villain has to call 150/(250+150)= 150/400 = .375

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