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Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat?

03-05-2012 , 05:59 AM
Live 1/2 NLHE

Villain 1 $351 (UTG+1) is a 18 year old and is loose aggressive preflop, but will fold to a 3 bet.

Villain 2 $700 (CO) is 40-50 years old and is loose passive, But feels he is a great player and capable of making a move (some of which have given him his stack). Villain 2 is the subject of my question, since he and I are the only post flop action.

Villain 3 $51 (SB) is super loose and will get it in with Any 2 here.

Hero has QTs (BB) Normally, I don't like to play OOP, but I felt weakness from V1 and V2 and was trying to ISO Villain 3 all-in.

Preflop
V1 Raises to $11, V2 Calls, V3 calls, Hero 3 raises to $51, V1 Folds, V2 Calls, and V3 calls all-in.

Flop 962r $165
Hero is OOP in a huge pot and checks, V2 bets $80, hero ships.

Here is my line of thinking.

Preflop
Villain 2 is flatting with 22-99, any 2 Broadway cards, Maybe 78s. Raising 10s+ and folding everything else to my 3 bet.

Post Flop
I check, hoping to see a free turn card. He lead out with $80. Now I feel that he would do this with any of his preflop calling range, thinking that I just missed the flop. So I C/R all-in expecting to only be called by sets.

Here is my question. I am representing an OP, so Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat?
Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Quote
03-05-2012 , 09:46 AM
You check that flop with an overpair? Against a loose passive?
Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Quote
03-05-2012 , 10:47 AM
The answer is...sometimes.

It depends more on your opponent than anything else.

It's less important that your opponent actually has a better hand than you are representing, and much much more important whether or not he realizes he has that hand in his range and can represent it by re-bluffing you.

Here's a really simple example... say I have 76ss I raise btn, fish calls bb. Flop Qs9s4h, he chks I bet, he calls, turn 3d, he chks I bet, he calls. River 2h, he checks, I bet like 1/5th pot. Obviously he can have a Q or a 9 or something like 88. But that's not important because I know he will very frequently fold all his missed draws which are better hands than mine.

You just gotta figure out what percentage of hands in his range he will fold, and make sure that the odds you lay him on a call are worse than that number. I've never done any math like that before though, I do it intuitively.
Against a regular, you can't make plays this obvious, but there are still some where it's profitable to make a bet expecting them to fold x% of their range and knowing that y% of their range is never folding to it in a million years. These types of examples are more difficult to come up with though out of thin air.
Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Quote
03-05-2012 , 10:57 AM
Wait, what? I didn't really read your post but just answered the question in the OP at first....but...

You sensed weakness and tried to isolate a player all in with Q high?

LOL don't do that. If you think that's a good play, the question you are asking in OP is way way too advanced for you that you will just misapply the information. You'd be better off ignoring it honestly.

The check/shove on the flop is really miserable too.
Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Quote
03-05-2012 , 11:16 AM
There is nothing that says he wont flat with 10+ to make a move later. Not likely by what you put but still consider it. Next the Q high shove is sketchy, if u get called, its not by worse than Q high.
Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Quote
03-10-2012 , 02:52 AM
Only bluff someone u KNOW can fold. Also any hand that is not thr nuts can be beat so the answer to ur question is sometimes depending on villain and ur tendencies
Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Quote
03-10-2012 , 05:08 AM
You've posted this thread in multiple boards now... Dude, I don't think you're getting it. This is a bad play. There isn't even a side-pot and you have Q-high. If you bluff him out, you win $80, not the whole pot unless Q-high beats the all-in player's hand or improves (might be drawing virtually dead). That means, this move has to work way more often than it would otherwise.. It's not going to. Congrats if the stars aligned and you got it in against 78 with the shortstack and the other player folded and your hand managed to hold up, it's a 1/1000 shot.
Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Quote
03-11-2012 , 12:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks
You check that flop with an overpair? Against a loose passive?
Please respond. Your range is bluff imo.
Is it a Bad Bluff, When the Represented Hand Could Be Beat? Quote

      
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