Here's the scenario. Player is in first position with 4500 chips with the blinds at 3000/1500. Talking this over with my buddy who was in this position and decided to fold. I told him his best option is to move all in blind rather than wait for the BB next hand.
He disagrees saying that he might get Kings or Aces next and still be in the tournament. IMO I think he's better to shove blind than wait for the blinds to swallow him up.

A lot depends on his cards, the other player's stacks, the payout, but lol at the bolded part

Hope springs eternal.

If I'm UTG in this scenario, I push with ATC that play together for a straight or flush or any hand higher in value than Q7o.

But it sorta doesn't matter. You're screwed by this point

Just a wild guess but your buddy sucks at tourneys?

Just shove Q7+ and if not call all-in next hand on the BB?

Yeah he does suck at poker in general but he's only been playing a couple of months. Tried to tell him not to let himself get in positions where he is critically short stacked like that.

Tell him if he shoves blind, he might have AA, KK this hand.

"Hope springs eternal" is meant as mocking here but hope is something more than an empty promise for those with the brains to create something valuable out of something little and seemingly hopeless.


So our problem is the guy has 1.5bb and is UTG in table of 9 or 10? What hands to play there?

The guys that tell you to play any hand and you as well since you take that line blindly without specifying what hand he had are very wrong. Are you all seriously defending a push with 27o or 23o or 62o or hell yes T2o even? Are you serious? Wait and you will see even better hands drop dead out as worthless ideas next.

If this guy plays with whatever he is only attracting more flat callers and he ends up vs many opponents often. But with him at the blind next hand he has one less opponent typically! This is that one opponent that is now the blind. His all in is not taking the current blind out and in the next hand the chance a UTG player would play is typically less than 10% anyway. So yes if the hand is below some level yet to be determined but certainly clearly very wide by now it has to be folded. And even if his hand is big he has to limp, not go all in with it leaving 0.5bb behind because the fold equity that extra 0.5bb has is almost 0. He needs to limp and call any raise of course and hope he doesnt get raised if not top or that others limp behind him too not feeling they have to pay more than the 1bb to do so (so he invites the creation of dead money) and that either nobody raises and he sees a flop or someone raises real big and takes all other limpers out leaving him alone for a big real big pot compared to his stack (good outcome). Who seriously is going to worry if the guy then at the resulting flop, if never raised earlier, bets his last 0.5bb? Are they maybe folding scared of that 0.5bb? No they will easily all call him or better 80% of the time. Plus he has the option to check/fold post flop and keep that last 0.5bb. Am i kidding? Hell no! What if the guy has 5s6s and the flop comes AcQdKh, he checks it and then 3 others in the hand all bet strong ? Are you seriously calling them now? With what? Your typical 3.5% equity ? And if he had to be the blind in the same spot and had 63o with what , his 1.4%?
My point is there is always room to fold even on the most ridiculous of small stack situations. Always leave yourself one last option.


Let me tell you how i would see playing this instead.

First we consider the pay structure and how close we are to the money. If we are within 1-2 left to be eliminated before pay starts all is possible and play slow and fold stupid hands and even fold the big blind too next and get to see 3 cards slowly and maybe you make it or at the very least when at your small blind with your last 0.5bb you may get lucky with some 20%-30% chance (that the typical random hand has vs 2-3 other opponents anyway). And then if you win you have another 9 hands to see and plenty of time for more to be eliminated and make it. On a very flat initially pay structure event the most important thing is no longer chip EV equity but probability to make the money when your stack is so ridiculous low.

Now usually of course it will not be such a close spot. Usually you will have to play to grow and to go all in very soon again after that, hoping to arrive at some 10-15bb stack after 2 successful all ins. It will be very far from the money or far enough. And then it will be a tournament EV problem or even just chip EV problem if very far from money.

Its pure logic that if you look down and see a stupid hand its a fold. In your next hand anyway you will be the big blind and have a random hand dealt. So why play now a sub 50% hand here? You can play an average hand next anyway its a given. And you will have one less opponent in general because the next player that will be UTG (the current big blind) will not in general be equally desperate to be willing to play anything from UTG. So count this guy out 80-90% of the time in the next hand.

Not only that but how on earth do you know that you will be dealt a blind the next hand? Have some imagination people!!! Is it exactly impossible that during this hand you are actually moved to another table with maybe 4 hands left again before your blind? Or if this rare thing doesnt happen why cant the current big blind simply get so involved in the present hand that he gets eliminated!!! What if the small blind gets eliminated? What if both the big and small blind get eliminated in this hand? Is it entirely impossible? Do you realize that its not at all remote to not only have the big blind get eliminated but you next to post the small blind instead and be left with near 1bb stack even after folding that if its a bottom 20-25% crappy hand since you will then have another 7-8 hands to see (depending on antes if at all also). Yes have some imagination and derive maximum probability from all that is going on around you even when as some already said you are already "screwed" (no you arent!) ! To push any 2 is actually the equivalent of hopeless and resigned player. You can do better. Is it a lot better what you can do ? Not sure about that but maybe yes it is something reasonably material. I am very confident its not negligible. It may be as big as +0.5bb difference between a careful all in and a blind whatever idea in terms of EV. Try pushing 63o and tell me what happens on average (try some <-0.5bb EV)

So what hands do you play then? Keep in mind 1.5bb is very different than 2bb. 2bb small as it is has a bit of fold equity still left in it. Maybe for that reason pushing 1.5bb vs limping 1bb is not the better choice here with a good hand.

I will continue to work on this with math analysis but at first level i think one must not be pushing wider than 40% here! And that is way different than the any 2 idea.


When the guy says he can get AA,KK next he is not wrong. Yes he can . He doesnt have it now but he may have it next. So yes if he has 28o now or 73o or some garbage like that and as it turns out even J3o or Q2o its a fold. I propose 22+,A2s+,K3s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K7o+,Q8 o+,J9o+,T9o.


But let me first show you why a hand as high as Q7o is a marginal fold anyway.

Lets take several cases that can happen just to obtain some intuition;

Lets take ideal best case there are antes adding up to 0.75bb (plus the 1.5bb if the blinds standard) ( i will spare you the math but its easy to verify with pokerstove and some simple addition of chips for all involved plus antes)

1) Only the 2 blinds call us. +0.23bb
2) Only the Big blind calls us . +0.7bb (real rare will happen less than 15% of the time)
3) The 2 blinds call us and a top 30% minus top 10% hand . -0.1bb
4) The 2 blinds and 2 other limpers (30%-10% again).-0.2bb
5) A single 5% raiser (no flat callers before him) takes out everyone including the blinds.-0.25bb
6) A single raiser and the BB flat calls him. -0.35bb
7) A flat caller then a big raiser that takes out him and the blinds (also a good case) .+0.25bb
8) 2 strong hands raise and call and the blinds forced out. -0.4bb


I can go on and on but looking at this list you see that the Q7o is probably the marginal idea and considering all the other little things like the case we are moved to another table or the BB is eliminated during the hand you can see why at the very least you should consider folding about 55% of hands here. I suppose the push to 40% or a bit better is the proper choice when you consider all the other little things i mentioned that can save you .

Verdict; I do not expect to be very wrong with limping or pushing with 40% hands and maybe a bit better even depending on pay structure closeness to the money and the stack size of the present Big blind and Small blind players. Definitely not a good idea to try any 2 or even top 50%. You need to be a bit better and this is a very clear conclusion.