Open Side Menu Go to the Top
FAQ Today's Posts Search Twitter Discord
Register
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic
Post Reply Subscribe
...
02-25-2015 , 10:49 AM
#1
Rob3rt
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By Rob3rt Find Threads By Rob3rt
newbie
Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 25
Can anyone agree with this? When shoving all in with AK you have less then 45% chance of winning against any PP because somebody could have already folded a K or an A preflop? For example, somebody folded K2o preflop which means you have minus 1 out? To be fair the chances of somebody folding at least one K or A is big preflop?

Thanks in advance
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-25-2015 , 10:51 AM
#2
RDT316
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By RDT316 Find Threads By RDT316
enthusiast
Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 77
It's offset by the times everyone who folds didn't have an A or K in their hand, thus making all As and Ks live with less cards remaining.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-25-2015 , 10:54 AM
#3
Rob3rt
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By Rob3rt Find Threads By Rob3rt
newbie
Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 25
Thanks for clarifying this.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-25-2015 , 10:55 AM
#4
heehaww's Avatar
heehaww
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By heehaww Find Threads By heehaww
Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,086
Unknown cards do not affect probabilities. What's the difference between the card you need being in the muck vs at the bottom of the deck?

Also, why didn't you apply the same logic to the guy with the underpair? Someone could have folded his set cards.

In reality, if a bunch of people folded, there are on avg slightly more high cards in the deck because they're more likely to fold low cards than high cards.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-25-2015 , 11:42 AM
#5
Rob3rt
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By Rob3rt Find Threads By Rob3rt
newbie
Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
Unknown cards do not affect probabilities. What's the difference between the card you need being in the muck vs at the bottom of the deck?

Also, why didn't you apply the same logic to the guy with the underpair? Someone could have folded his set cards.

In reality, if a bunch of people folded, there are on avg slightly more high cards in the deck because they're more likely to fold low cards than high cards.
Wow, didn't think of that one before, thanks for the tip.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-25-2015 , 11:46 AM
#6
pepexed's Avatar
pepexed
View Profile Find Posts By pepexed Find Threads By pepexed
banned
Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 284
Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
Someone could have folded his set cards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob3rt
Wow, didn't think of that one before, thanks for the tip.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...them-1-1-a-64/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob3rt
To be fair the chances of somebody folding at least one K or A is big preflop?
Pat Dittmar - Practical Poker Math: Basic Odds & Probabilities for Hold'em & Omaha

i remember he calculates stuff like this... if you curious, of course, in all this stuff.
Last edited by pepexed; 02-25-2015 at 11:52 AM.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-25-2015 , 12:32 PM
#7
Kelvis
View Profile Find Posts By Kelvis Find Threads By Kelvis
banned
Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737
Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
Unknown cards do not affect probabilities. What's the difference between the card you need being in the muck vs at the bottom of the deck?

Also, why didn't you apply the same logic to the guy with the underpair? Someone could have folded his set cards.

In reality, if a bunch of people folded, there are on avg slightly more high cards in the deck because they're more likely to fold low cards than high cards.
Well a lot of mucked cards aren't unknown. The reality is that there is actually a greater chance of aces and kings still being live because there is more combinations of Ax/Kx that are not folded while a lot of small cards always will be. While unpaired high cards are almost always played like AK/AQ or KQ, 84o will hit the muck every single time thus having a lot of people fold random hands will increase the ratio of big cards in the remaining unknown cards.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-25-2015 , 03:08 PM
#8
punter11235
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By punter11235 Find Threads By punter11235
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 8,210
Quote:
Unknown cards do not affect probabilities. What's the difference between the card you need being in the muck vs at the bottom of the deck?
They do though as some hands are less likely to be folded (like AK) and some more likely (like 72) someone did great analysis of this effect on this forum before. Unfortunately I can't find a link now. I am pretty sure this effect is in favor of AK not in favor of pp though (aces and kings are less likely to be folded so when the actions get to you there are on average more of them in the deck)
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-25-2015 , 08:55 PM
#9
just_grindin
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By just_grindin Find Threads By just_grindin
Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,263
Quote:
Originally Posted by punter11235
They do though as some hands are less likely to be folded (like AK) and some more likely (like 72) someone did great analysis of this effect on this forum before. Unfortunately I can't find a link now. I am pretty sure this effect is in favor of AK not in favor of pp though (aces and kings are less likely to be folded so when the actions get to you there are on average more of them in the deck)
I believe it was TakenItEasy but I can't find the thread either.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-26-2015 , 12:31 AM
#10
TakenItEasy
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By TakenItEasy Find Threads By TakenItEasy
old hand
Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 1,767
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_grindin
I believe it was TakenItEasy but I can't find the thread either.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...olved-1418266/

In general action that favors hitting AK:

Open folds, flatting 2B, limps, overcalls, 2B/F, folding behind action helps a little, more if it's a snap/auto-fold.

Action that favors opponents who call:

any aggression, but with a premium over passive action. gets worse as it gets tighter.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-26-2015 , 02:11 AM
#11
heehaww's Avatar
heehaww
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By heehaww Find Threads By heehaww
Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,086
Kelvis and Punter didn't read the bottom of my post :P

But iirc from TIE's thead, the effect is too slight to worry about when you have overcards and are facing a shove by what you believe to be an underpair (or vice versa).

Quote:
Originally Posted by pepexed
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...them-1-1-a-64/
Hah there must have been a lot of funny threads like that in '05 and earlier.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-27-2015 , 01:15 AM
#12
TakenItEasy
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By TakenItEasy Find Threads By TakenItEasy
old hand
Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 1,767
Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
Kelvis and Punter didn't read the bottom of my post :P

But iirc from TIE's thead, the effect is too slight to worry about when you have overcards and are facing a shove by what you believe to be an underpair (or vice versa).

Hah there must have been a lot of funny threads like that in '05 and earlier.
Yeah, leveling was huge in those days but sometimes it went too far.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-27-2015 , 12:27 PM
#13
heehaww's Avatar
heehaww
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By heehaww Find Threads By heehaww
Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,086
Quote:
Originally Posted by 69 so fine
The pocket pair needing to hit a set is irrelevant because the pocket pair doesn't need to improve
It's relevant because the possibility of a set is why the pair is favored instead of the overcards. If both players hit the board, the wired pair hits harder.

AK facing an underpair has a 50.32% chance of at least pairing by the river. If he's against 99 and we know that both the other 9's are removed, that becomes a 52% chance and AK has roughly a 4% edge.
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
02-27-2015 , 01:24 PM
#14
samooth's Avatar
samooth
View Profile Send Message Find Posts By samooth Find Threads By samooth
veteran
Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 3,350
69 so fine is a superb screenname
AK has less than 45%-49% against any PP logic Quote
Post Reply Subscribe
...
      
Feedback is used for internal purposes. LEARN MORE
Contact Us Privacy Statement TOS
Top
Powered by:  Hand2Note
Copyright ©2008-2022, Hand2Note Interactive LTD
m