Hello,

I have a question about counting Outs.

My Hand is 22
Enemys Hand is AA

If I get a Set 222 and the enemy doesnt get anything in the flop, I am ahead.
but there is also the possibility of me getting my 222 and my enemy also hitting his set AAA.

Now how do I count my Outs PreFlop correctly?

Normally you would count the 2 (Needed Cards for my Set) * 3 (Cards Shown on Flop) = 6 Outs. But I dont think thats right here, my chance of beating the enemy msut be alot lower.

Dont give me just the Numbers, I know how to use PokerStove or any other Odds Calculator, I want to know how to count the Outs in this situation. I cant use PokerStove in a Real Table u know...

Thanks alot, this is my first post here, hope I didnt do anything wrong :-)

That is incorrect. Your outs are cards that could give you the best hand. Preflop, 22 vs AA, you have 2 outs to a set (the remaining 2's in the deck). If he hits his set then the only hand you can beat him with is quads, as the board pairing will just turn set-over-set into boat-over-boat. You will need the remaining 2 in the deck to hit quads, 1 out.

Your outs and his are the same preflop but your equity is vastly lower due to the low value of your hand against his and the fact that should he spike an ace, you're pretty doomed.

I think your initial calculation was confused with that of roughly calculating your chance of hitting your hand using outs. For example, 22 vs AA on a flop where both hands missed, you have 2 outs to a set, you would multiply outs by 4 on flop and 2 on turn so 2 * 4 = 8% chance of hitting your set after flop or 4% after turn.

Thanks but youre comment didnt really helped me.
Can someone else explain this in another way?
Maybe by simply writing down the process of counting the Outs in this example.

Hey man, I'll try and explain. First up, the method of counting equity you wrote isn't correct. You don't use the number of cards on the flop in the calculation. To count outs, you take the number of cards that improve you (outs), and multiply it by 4 if you're on the flop, and 2 on the turn. This gives you the chance of winning the hand. So, if you have 22 on a 689 flop against AA, you have 2 outs multiplied by 4, = 8% equity. If you have 22 against AA on a A24 flop (as you suggested), you only have one out, the remaining 2, so 1 x 4 = 4% chance of winning on the flop.

Hope I helped

Thanks that was clearer, but STILL didnt answer my question.

If I have 22 and my enemy has AA Pre Flop. How do I count the Outs?
I know I have 2 Outs to make my Hand better, but my enemy if he hits his Outs Beats me (Lets not Include the chance of me beating him on Turn and River).

Im pretty sure I have to some kind of decrease my Outs or the % Value at the end.
Otherwise I would always make Bad Calls becouse I think I have 2 Outs to get a Superior Hand.

I hope I could explain myself a lil better this time. (Eng is not my native language...)

You're confusing outs and equity.

Your outs are 2. You have 8% chance of hitting a set on the turn if you whiff and 4% on the river.

Your equity is what is affected by your hand strengths in the situation you mention. Preflop, you only have 18% chance of winning (against his 82%). This will decrease with each street.

So... Outs is really just about making my Hand better, without counting Outs that at the same time make my opponents Hands better.

But I think u guys understand what my Problem is in this example right?
So in a Situation like in my Example whats the best thing to do?
This example really crushed my confidence q.q

Basically yes. Obviously excuse his hand is so much stronger, he will still win a lot more than you in the long run as he can still hit an ace and beat you even if you do make a set.

Without a hand history or description of the exact situation we cannot really tell you how to play your pocket twos.

In general counting Outs PreFlop isnt really something anybody does.
People only count Outs when they are on the Flop and Waiting for the Turn and River Cards.

So PreFlop I should just Memorize the Strenght of each Hand right?
Im really trying Hard to learn all Mathematics of Poker, its jsut like a Puzzle things have to come together and build the big picture

You should just use an equity calculator or advanced software like flopzilla or CREV. These calculations can get complex quickly especially over multiple streets.

The general idea is that you want to divide the number of outcomes you win by the number of total possible outcomes. If it is easier you can also divide the total number of outcomes you lose, divide that by the total number of outcomes, and then subtract that result from 1.

If we rephrase your question to 'how often will 22 be the best hand on the flop vs AA' the number of outcomes we win include the following:

1. The number of flops that contain a 2 and no A

2. The number of flops that contain an A but also contain both remaining 2's

There are a number of different ways to count both 1 and 2 but I'm going to use the following logic:

1. Set one of the 3 flop cards to a 2, count the number of combinations of the remaining cards in the deck that AREN'T an A or a 2.

2. Set 2 of the remaining flop cards to the 2 remaining 2's and then multiply by the number of A in the deck.

Since order doesn't matter I will be using combinations.

1. 2*(44C2) = 2*946 = 1,892
2. 1*2 = 2

(1892+2)/(48C3) = 1894/17,296 = .1095*100 = 10.95%

I have nothing to verify this number but the thought process should be along the right lines. Heehaw or statmanhal will probably correct any mistakes.

The calculation looks good to me.

This sounds ugly. Dont think of handstrenght as something static. Handstrenght is very relative in poker and varies based on positions, stacksizes and opposition.

I dont think there is something about that you can directly memorize. Well, you can memorize how often certain hands hit certain flops, but thats about it. Everything else needs to be seen in relation.

Well if you want to simplify it in your mind I should be able to help...

-First work out my outs. If I have 22, then with 5 cards remaining its 10..
-Then guess roughly how often he hits. Same as me with AA. 1 in 5 ish..
-Then I dirty those ones from my own outs... So 2 of my 10 outs are losers.

Think that's all right in regards to a proper rough calculation.. I am in a rush though so don't hold me to it.. phones bats about to die lol.