Quote:
Originally Posted by Quicksilvre
So, if Fischer hadn't gotten a seat at Palma, and didn't get to go to Candidates, who else thinks Larsen would've won through and faced Spassky? I think he is as least as likely as Petrosian, maybe more so.
If we take Fischer out of the standings of the Palma Interzonal (and insert Benkö, who would not have played for the qualifying spots), Portisch (first reserve) would have entered the Candidates Matches. A top GM in his own right, but never really close to a WC match. Petrosian and Larsen are indeed the most likely candidates to play Spassky instead of Fischer. Looking at the january 1971 rating list we see:
1. Fischer 2740
2. Spassky 2690
3-4 Larsen & Korchnoi 2660
5. Petrosian 2640
6-9 Portisch, Botvinnik, 2630
Geller & Polugayevsky
Petrosian having beaten Korchnoi in the semi-finals, this leaves him and Larsen as the likely finalists. (Funny how Karpov four years before becoming world champion was ´only´ rated at 2540 and shared a 43rd spot on the FIDE list with amongst others Osnos, Lutikov and Gheorghiu).
Petrosian had a clear plus score againt Larsen (+9 -4 =10 according to chessgames.com), but we can ascribe that for a great deal to their early games (5-1 to Petrosian) when The Tiger was already a well established world class GM and Larsen up and coming. Larsen and Petrosian seemed to inspire each other, remember the double defeat Larsen inflicted on Petrosian as world champion in the 1966 Santa Monica Tournament.
I´d say Larsen was the better Tournament player, Petrosian the better match player. Chances would have been roughly 50-50 I think, much if not everything depending on Larsen´s form, notoriously hard to predict. One would like to think Larsen would have won, even if only to have a new face playing Spassky and not a 3rd Spassky-Petrosian match, that almost certainly would have been won by the former.
As far as a Spassky-Larsen, I think Spassky would have been a prohibitive favourite. They met in the 1969 Candidates semi-finals and Spassky on his way to the world title crushed Larsen 5,5-2,5 after getting off the blocks with a ´Fischeresque´ 3-0. Their overall record also indicates Spassky was simply a notch stronger, not to mention more stable in his performances.