Quote:
Originally Posted by YouKnowWho
Ding
Dubov
Alekseenko
Harikrishna
Dominguez
Wang Hao
Grischuk
Xu
So
Vidit
Karjakin
Huschenbeth
Nepo
Aravindh
Adhiban
Anton Guijarro won game 1 with black... CMON NOW SON.
Giri
Xiong
Andreikin
Duda
Mamedyarov
Nihal Sarin also won game one.. yall ****in with me or what?
Radjabov
McShane my biggest 50-50 before the round :/
Vachier
Jones
Nakamura I thought that in-form Nisipeanu can give troubles to out-of-form Naka, but I expected that Naka will salvage two draws and win in the rapids/blitz.. this is LOL.
Svidler
Aronian
Gelfand
Artemiev
Korobov
22/32.
some picks were based on my liking rather than objectivity, so it's fitting I got burned on those (Korobov, Gelfand, Jones), but really sad that some of my upset picks validated my picks by either having a lead, or comfortably reaching playoffs, but then most of them got rekt there.
R3:
Ding (there is a small chance that Firouzja gets one of his crazy crushing wins and takes it, but I think Ding too solid for that)
Harikrishna (Alekseenko is reaaaaally good, but an in-form Hari is a beast. However, if this reaches playoffs, then I feel like Alekseenko's chances improve and Hari is maybe just a small favorite)
Dominguez (this one is a coin toss to me... Going for Dominguez as he is super solid, and very good in faster controls, which will definitely be reached)
Grischuk (Xu has been my dark horse in both first two rounds and he has pulled through, making me look good. The journey ends here, though)
So (both very good, but I just feel that Vidit is simply not there yet. But it all depends on which So shows up. He has kinda been all over the place as far as his level of play recently, so Vidit might have plenty of chances to take this one if So doesn't find consistency)
Karjakin (another fairly close one, but Karjakin is just a bit above Vitiugov and doesn't really have weaknesses that players of lesser caliber could exploit)
Tomashevsky (Nepo is a better player, for sure. But Tomashevsky is ultra solid, while Nepo is all over the place, with very high peaks, and very low lows. He has not blundered anything yet in this tournament - I feel like he finally will. And if he loses one, he is not winning against Tomashevsky on demand).
Wei Yi (maybe the biggest coin toss of the round. You might think its strange that I picked Anton Guijarro to beat Wei Yi (which he should have, winning first game with black), and now I am picking Wei Yi to beat a much stronger Yu. But Anton's style is just perfect against Wei Yi, and Wei Yi has a tendency of going for an overkill against lower rated guys, which he doesn't do vs his level of opposition. Yu is very good, but I am not convinced at all by his form this tournament. I think this reaches playoffs 95% of the time, and then.. who knows)
Giri (fun fact - I've beaten Xiong many times in tournament games! when his head was barely visible above the table...
I honestly would have picked Xiong here, had Giri beaten Najer in regulation, as Giri often plays down to his competition and seems to lack focus a bit when playing vs lower rated guys, while Xiong is someone who would not be shy about going for the throat if the position allowed. But now I have a sense that after surviving such a scare a rejuvenated Giri will go far, and young Xiong is no match yet)
Duda (Andreikin is also very strong, but similar to Nepo in a sense that he has quite high highs, but quite low lows. Duda, though also prone to that a bit due to his age, is a bit more consistent overall. Usually Andreikin can rely on his rapid/blitz to get through some of the earlier rounds, but Duda has shown to be extremely strong in fast time controls, so I do not feel like Andreikin has any edge there, actually the opposite. This is my candidate for Armaggedon this round)
Mamedyarov (Safarli is quite underrated, and has proven that when he beat Shankland in R1, making me look good! He has a tendency to look down on his opposition, which is why I picked Nihal to beat him, which Nihal had a real chance to do after leading 1-0. Safarli will for sure bring his A game vs Mamedyarov, and it will be quite a struggle, but Mamedyarov just too strong to overcome even with Safarli's A game).
Radjabov - (Yuffa is someone who brought me the most frustration this tournament. I know how good he is, far better than his rating. I almost put him down as going through vs Navara, but convinced myself otherwise for whatever stupid reason. Then I spent a bunch of time trying to find out how McShane can beat him, and again found a reason. He definitely has a chance vs Radjabov too, but Teimour does not have some of weaknesses that Navara has, so Yuffa will have to do something quite special to go through this time. Third time is the charm, I guess - JUST GO OUT ALREADY PLS)
Vachier (I dislike Jakovenko with passion for whatever reason. Vachier is better in all aspects of the game and will comfortably go through. Or so I hope
Svidler (I am not really sad to see Nakamura go, but I am sad that I didn't pull the trigger on Nisipeanu pick. I had a sense that he will create a lot of problems for Nakamura in classical games, but Nakamura will escape and then destroy in faster controls, which he didn't get a chance to do lol. But Svidler is not Naka. I am actually amazed that Naka is so strong, which is a testament to his incredible other abilities, as he really does not have nearly the understanding as some of these other guys do, like Svidler. Nisipeanu will try something super aggressive both games, and Svidler will take whatever is on offer and calmly defend.
Aronian (Aronian might struggle this tournament, but not yet. Should be fairly comfortable.
Artemiev (I don't like him much, but cannot argue with his strength. Will be rooting for Le, though).