Hi all, cash game, white owns the cube, black to play.



I obviusly instant closed my opponent up, avoiding him to potential anchoring, then I gammoned him and I analyzed the game, finding out that my move is a horrible blunder 0.2 (snowie) while 24/18, 9/6 is best.

I couldn't understand why, because he has no prime, my backman is not trapped, I have good timing even if I cant immediately escape with that man...

Obv I know that there is a little risk to crash my home board in case of truly horrible roll (not so many btw), but I still think they are longshots, and ok that 9/6 brings 4 builders that aim on the 2 point, (I am little less than even money to make that point next turn) but I thought that closing him out was a priority.

Someone can explain?

Many thanks in advance

You just mentioned it. If you roll 5-5, 4-4 or even 3-3 next turn, you won't be happy. Even a roll such as 5-4, 5-3 or 4-3 could smell trouble. With 24/18 9/6, you escape and bring a 4th checker. Unless he rolls 2-2, you shouldn't have too many problems to close him out in the next few rolls.

Note: Let's say you roll a 5 or a 2 next roll and he still have both men on the bar, you simply advance the back man until you have a closing roll. (Of course, if he entered one man on the 2-pt, you should hit loose.)

The general rule that covers these sorts of positions is this:

Do the harder thing first.

Here, making the 2-point with 4 active builders while he has two on the bar is relatively easy, while escaping requires rolling a 6. Once you get to the 18-point you've bought a lot of time and your game is easy to play. If you make the 2-point first, you're immediately in danger of collapsing.

I tryed to make a rough count of bad rolls: 33, 44, 55, 34 35 45 are a big disaster, but they occur only say 1/3 of the time, while the other not so good rolls such 2-5 are not so bad because I have the 9 man to gain time to rolld decently.

I was afraid of lose the opportunity to close him out.

In my experience (even my other blunder in my last thread) I noticed that when you are in complete control of the game but you have a backman potentially trapped you should immediately try to escape that man, frist of all...

If you run you rear checker with this 6, you can have your cake, and eat it, too! You become a heavy favorite to complete the escape and close your board. When you close the board now, however, by your own analysis, 25% of the rolls that follow cause you to crack. That’s no piece of cake.

I recommend setting up this position, and playing it out a both ways 10 or 15 times. The USBGF Facebook page has a short video showing how you can setup XG to do all the playing for both sides. All you have to do is watch.

I followed your advice on snowie: there is simpler thank you

I belive the key thing here is that having time to move is pretty crucial in these positions. Considering normal dice distribution, you won't imagine how fast this position can crack on you if you play it wrongly.