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Hitting in a bearing off position Hitting in a bearing off position
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12-09-2014 , 02:33 PM
#1
endingcredits
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stranger
Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 2
Hi everyone,

this is my first post here! I am wondering why Gnu-BG considered the move I played 6/1 5/1 very bad relative to the right play 6/2* 5/off. The relative equity difference being -0.180 after rollout. It seems to me that hitting here is too risky even though the blot on the 23 point isn't a favourite to be covered by white in the next turn. Thanks!

White - Pips 114

Black - Pips 50
Black to Play 5-4
Created with www.BGdiagram.com
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12-09-2014 , 05:15 PM
#2
Fllecha's Avatar
Fllecha
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journeyman
Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321
Its because of the final position you get. With your play you remain in the rear with the 3-2-2 distribution (which is very bad and you Will soon Leave a shot) but no checkers bear off. With the bot play you still remain with 3-2-2 distribution but you bore off a checker and white may dance in compensation with the fact that you may Be hit, and plus he has a blot in his home
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12-09-2014 , 11:15 PM
#3
Taper_Mike's Avatar
Taper_Mike
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adept
Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,030
Did you check to see which play wins more gammons?

Not hitting get you a gammon win in about 24% of all games. Hitting wins one in almost 35% of all games! I like Fllecha's explanation why you win a single game more often after hitting. The number is about 2.5% of all games. It is the big swing in gammon victories, however, that explains the large difference in equity that you are seeing.

If you set this up as a DMP problem, where gammons do not matter, the best play is still to hit. The equity involved, however, is much smaller.

Mike
Last edited by Taper_Mike; 12-09-2014 at 11:28 PM.
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12-10-2014 , 05:00 PM
#4
endingcredits
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stranger
Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taper_Mike
Did you check to see which play wins more gammons?

Not hitting get you a gammon win in about 24% of all games. Hitting wins one in almost 35% of all games! I like Fllecha's explanation why you win a single game more often after hitting. The number is about 2.5% of all games. It is the big swing in gammon victories, however, that explains the large difference in equity that you are seeing.

If you set this up as a DMP problem, where gammons do not matter, the best play is still to hit. The equity involved, however, is much smaller.

Mike
Is a DMP problem defined as a game without gammons? I've never heard this term before.
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12-10-2014 , 05:24 PM
#5
Aaron W.
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 30,132
Quote:
Originally Posted by endingcredits
Is a DMP problem defined as a game without gammons? I've never heard this term before.
DMP = Double Match Point

It means that both players are one point away from winning the match (or in some situation that's equivalent to that, like 3-away/2-away but the cube has been turned up to 4).
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