the big thread about cube decisions - Page 4 - Backgammon Forum - Discuss Backgammon Strategy, Clubs and Books

The double looks clear by the woolsey rule.

Since white leads by ten and has only one man back and black has not many spare in hb it seems a take, altough the risk of being hit is a potential threat. But since even in case of being hit white can easily anchor and he his hit about 1/3 i take

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03-27-2015 , 05:04 PM

#78

uberkuber

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,043

I'm not sure what you mean by easily anchor. If White is hit loose in his home board, he cannot anchor.

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03-27-2015 , 05:19 PM

#79

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Quote:

Originally Posted by uberkuber

I'm not sure what you mean by easily anchor. If White is hit loose in his home board, he cannot anchor.

I was thinking about the 16 white blot. With out that blot ( say it is stacked on the point nearby ) and its a massive take from white.

A lose hit in hb by black is useless: black has no spare in the vicinity so white can counterplay on it

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03-27-2015 , 06:32 PM

#80

_Z_

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 722

Pretty scary cube, but let's see. 25 numbers where Black hits something. After accounting for gammons, I'd say White still gets some wins there, tough to say how many though. 4 maybe? But he looks to be a favorite on average on the 11 misses. So it's looking like White will be well above 9 equity wins in 36 games here. I'll guess double based on the volatility, but solid take.

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03-28-2015 , 11:21 AM

#81

bleep69

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 483

Phew. I'd double here, but would be to nervous to take. I think it's a drop. Like Fleccha, the exposed 16 swings it for me.

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03-28-2015 , 11:33 AM

#82

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Quote:

Originally Posted by bleep69

Phew. I'd double here, but would be to nervous to take. I think it's a drop. Like Fleccha, the exposed 16 swings it for me.

Its like one of that position in which if you drop nobody blames you because you Will "pratically" lose quite often:" usually" you are hit and you dance: game Over. But a computer may find a take on white resources because it doesnt have the poker player syndrome: when you see only a way in which the game Will develop, ignoring the possible counterplay we can set up.

Imo if one flash takes this cube has a too lose take habit and potentially very dangerous

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03-28-2015 , 01:30 PM

#83

Taper_Mike

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,030

I'll go with double/take. OTB, I call these "double/I-don't-like-this!"

The take looks iffy, but if Black hits loose inside, or misses completely, White will have some counterplay.

Mike

Quote

03-29-2015 , 05:51 AM

#84

yogiman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 784

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,574

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,920
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,080)
3. No double            +0,642  ( -0,277)
Proper cube action: Double, take

As you will see below, it may be impossible for us to assess this position, and might not be worth the risk. The role of the single checker is quite crucial.
If black misses, he is sure the dice will show a 5 or 6, and all of them will be okay for the single checker, which could then be used for containment or building purposes. If he hits, the single checker will be closer to the 2-point, than in the next position where there is no single checker:

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,441

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,607
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,393)
3. No double            +0,512  ( -0,095)
Proper cube action: Double, take

As mentioned above, this position is much more favorable for white, and is a very fat take. Black is a long distance away, and OTB we can all live with this take decision. The opposite happens when shifting the single checker up two pips:

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,628

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1,000
2. Double, take         +1,017  ( +0,017)
3. No double            +0,684  ( -0,316)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

With respect to the original position 65 is now added to the hitting numbers, 29 in total. This subtle change is enough to get into pass territory. One might wonder whether the 0.08 (computer) advantage of the original position is worth the stress. I rather go home, than heroing on a misty slippery slope.

For curiosity I show the results when creating a 5-board for white.
By moving white's 10-point:

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,367

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,580
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,420)
3. No double            +0,577  ( -0,002)
Proper cube action: Double, take

As expected, white has a much better take here.

By moving white's 17-point:

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,418

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,605
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,395)
3. No double            +0,488  ( -0,116)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Moving the 10-point gives a better pipcount for white, but this is imo not the reason that it gives black a much stronger double. The 10-point creates two extra checkers that black can wait for. In reply to Fllecha, the race is likely of little importance here, as there is so much that can happen.

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03-29-2015 , 09:41 AM

#85

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

Your rollout says it's a clear take, but you're advocating dropping because it's hard to assess and you don't want to get on a slippery slope.

I think you have this backwards. The most common cube error among players of almost all levels is dropping takes in double-edged positions. If you can't decide that a position is a clear pass, your default should be to take. Otherwise you're going to cost yourself a lot of points over time. (Not to mention a lot of thrills and chills in exciting games!)

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03-29-2015 , 10:43 AM

#86

yogiman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 784

I should accept your advice. But I think that it is also dependent on the cube knowledge and the state of mind at the moment. If someone is moody, he can work himself into a heavy depression.

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03-29-2015 , 01:11 PM

#87

yogiman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 784

Position ID: dpw5EEBsO0GQIQ Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE

White - Pips 118

Black - Pips 145
Black on roll. Cube action?
Created with www.BGdiagram.com

Quote

03-29-2015 , 01:49 PM

#88

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Seems a double/take, white can easily re enter and black has many men back to estricate. The blot looks scary but black has no spare to close out white.

Quote

03-29-2015 , 07:00 PM

#89

uberkuber

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,043

I might well be wrong, but I'm not taking this if I'm White. I even thought "too good" territory (assuming no Jacoby).

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03-30-2015 , 01:50 AM

#90

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Sorry, Misread position, thought that black board had 3 gaps. Its a double pass of course.

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03-30-2015 , 04:00 AM

#91

Kamba

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 93

As white i would drop this with pleasure.

Also agree with uberkuber. If black had the cube I would play on a bit and see if i could get a gammon.

Quote

03-30-2015 , 07:26 AM

#92

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kamba

As white i would drop this with pleasure.

Also agree with uberkuber. If black had the cube I would play on a bit and see if i could get a gammon.

This is not a too good for sure because of lack of ammo and many men back, easy pass: my original post was a misread

Quote

03-31-2015 , 11:29 AM

#93

yogiman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 784

White - Pips 118

Black - Pips 145
Black on roll. Cube action?

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,746

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1,000
2. Double, take         +1,337  ( +0,337)
3. No double            +0,923  ( -0,077)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

I present this problem intentionally, because after the previous one you could easily be fooled into taking:

White - Pips 108

Black - Pips 118

The previous problem was a good take, whereas this one is a whopper whopper whopper take. Though it is extremely difficult to assess both positions relative to each other properly, imo the main difference is very roughly that white is on the bar with a 4-board in the former, and threatened to be sent to the bar with a 5-board in the latter. Here I have created a little resemblance:

White - Pips 116

Black - Pips 145
Black on roll. Cube action?

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,421

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,592
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,408)
3. No double            +0,546  ( -0,045)
Proper cube action: Double, take

It's a hugely strong take now. That's the power of a checker on the bar.

We are all curious when white would be able to take.

Bringing the 8-point checker to the 13-point:

White - Pips 118

Black - Pips 150
Black on roll. Cube action?

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,713

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1,000
2. Double, take         +1,251  ( +0,251)
3. No double            +0,927  ( -0,073)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

No.

8-point to the 20-point:

White - Pips 118

Black - Pips 157
Black on roll. Cube action?

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,566

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,931
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,069)
3. No double            +0,807  ( -0,125)
Proper cube action: Double, take

That far back do we have to get the checker, which for us is ofcourse impossible to quantify. To keep it very simple: against a 4 board on the bar and a blot in direct danger, all black checkers but one should be far away in order to venture a take.

20-point to 21-point

White - Pips 124

Black - Pips 147
Black on roll. Cube action?

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,574

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,948
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,052)
3. No double            +0,783  ( -0,165)
Proper cube action: Double, take

This shows the power of the 20-point vs the 21 point.

4-board with gap

White - Pips 118

Black - Pips 141
Black on roll. Cube action?

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,608

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1,000
2. Double, take         +1,008  ( +0,008)
3. No double            +0,774  ( -0,226)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Taking and passing are equal money. With most other variations 4-board it will be a good take.

4-point board for white

White - Pips 117

Black - Pips 145

Code:

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,561

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,905
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,095)
3. No double            +0,776  ( -0,129)
Proper cube action: Double, take

With an almost equal board strength I think most often you will have a take.

Quote

03-31-2015 , 01:40 PM

#94

uberkuber

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,043

Is it close to "too good" with gammons activated?

Quote

03-31-2015 , 02:58 PM

#95

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Its maybe close at to good but definitively not to good. As a general rule a 4 board+blot in the rangeof a direct shot+ man on the bar is almost always a pass (there a similar position and rule on backgammon boot camp by Trice), while against a 3 board or a 4 board with high point open sometimes you can find a take.

The problem here is that you have too many man back and its usually a big liability. More: you cant close out your opponent and you are disconnected, signs that you arent as good as you think, dont Be itchy finger

Quote

04-01-2015 , 03:25 AM

#96

yogiman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 784

Quote:

Originally Posted by uberkuber

Is it close to "too good" with gammons activated?

No double means a loss of 0,077. With the numbers we see passing by I find 0,08 pretty close.

Quote

04-02-2015 , 11:30 AM

#97

yogiman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 784

Position ID: OM8BYFRsboMgKA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE

White - Pips 172

Black - Pips 140
Black on roll. Cube action?
Created with www.BGdiagram.com

Quote

04-02-2015 , 12:15 PM

#98

uberkuber

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,043

I would say it's a take for sure. When you hold the golden point, rarely will you have top drop I think. It also looks like an easy double based on PRAT.

Double/Take.

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04-02-2015 , 12:26 PM

#99

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Completely agree with uber

Quote

04-02-2015 , 04:15 PM

#100

Taper_Mike

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,030

Making either 1pt or the 2pt is not really going to help White. Both are primed, and he does not have sufficient timing for a 5-2 backgame. In many variations, this devolves into a 2pt holding game, with few chances to win.

Double/Pass

Mike

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