Code:
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0,574
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0,920
2. Double, pass +1,000 ( +0,080)
3. No double +0,642 ( -0,277)
Proper cube action: Double, take
As you will see below, it may be impossible for us to assess this position, and might not be worth the risk. The role of the single checker is quite crucial.
If black misses, he is sure the dice will show a 5 or 6, and all of them will be okay for the single checker, which could then be used for containment or building purposes. If he hits, the single checker will be closer to the 2-point, than in the next position where there is no single checker:
Code:
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0,441
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0,607
2. Double, pass +1,000 ( +0,393)
3. No double +0,512 ( -0,095)
Proper cube action: Double, take
As mentioned above, this position is much more favorable for white, and is a very fat take. Black is a long distance away, and OTB we can all live with this take decision. The opposite happens when shifting the single checker up two pips:
Code:
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0,628
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1,000
2. Double, take +1,017 ( +0,017)
3. No double +0,684 ( -0,316)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
With respect to the original position 65 is now added to the hitting numbers, 29 in total. This subtle change is enough to get into pass territory. One might wonder whether the 0.08 (computer) advantage of the original position is worth the stress. I rather go home, than heroing on a misty slippery slope.
For curiosity I show the results when creating a 5-board for white.
By moving white's 10-point:
Code:
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0,367
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0,580
2. Double, pass +1,000 ( +0,420)
3. No double +0,577 ( -0,002)
Proper cube action: Double, take
As expected, white has a much better take here.
By moving white's 17-point:
Code:
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0,418
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0,605
2. Double, pass +1,000 ( +0,395)
3. No double +0,488 ( -0,116)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Moving the 10-point gives a better pipcount for white, but this is imo not the reason that it gives black a much stronger double. The 10-point creates two extra checkers that black can wait for. In reply to Fllecha, the race is likely of little importance here, as there is so much that can happen.