Hi everyone,
I am having a little troubling understanding the difference (if there is one!) between an adjusted and effective pip count. First of all, here is the situation as I understand it:
- The effective pip count (EPC) is defined as the number of pips one must roll to bear-off, on average. For example, if one has only two checkers remaining, and both are on the 1 point, then the EPC is simply the expected value of a roll (so EPC = 8.167).
- Adjusted pip count methods (e.g. the Thorp or Ward methods) are ways of summarising who is ahead in the race. You only compute your adjusted pip count method (e.g. using the Thorp method) so you can compare it to your opponent’s adjusted pip count (and make doubling decisions accordingly). Adjusted pip count methods are not intended to estimate the EPC; in fact, the numbers generated by Thorp and Ward will generally underestimate the EPC.
I was wondering whether everything above is correct.
In particular, am I right in thinking that the Thorpe and Ward adjusted pip counts will generally underestimate the EPC?
Many thanks in advance!
Itzhak
