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Analyzing PREflop luck... Analyzing PREflop luck...

04-03-2010 , 01:25 PM
Is there a way to analyze how far above or below average my hole cards have been over a period of time? I'm talking about how good my hands were before any money (besides the blinds) went in.

A more advanced version of this preflop luck analyzer would involve position. For instance, you'll be much more profitable if you get your trash hole cards in early position and good hole cards in late position, as opposed to good hands in early position and garbage in late position.

Does even the simple version of this function exist?
04-03-2010 , 04:07 PM
You could build a custom report to do this I believe, but you would need to quantify more exactly how you considered "lucky" vs "unlucky".
04-03-2010 , 05:03 PM
This is why I suspected it didn't exist. You'd need a chart of preflop hand values from AA to 32o, and the values in the middle just aren't fixed. SCs are more valuable in passive, limpy games for instance.
04-03-2010 , 05:29 PM
Indeed. For any given hand you could calculate how many times you would have expected to have it over a given sample and see whether you're +/- on the sample, but you do need a fairly large sample before they start converging.
04-05-2010 , 02:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kraada
Indeed. For any given hand you could calculate how many times you would have expected to have it over a given sample and see whether you're +/- on the sample, but you do need a fairly large sample before they start converging.
PokerProspector does this for sets. I don't remember whether it does it for poker pairs.

You can both calculate the expected occurrence of an event like preflop PP and also the stddev of the event given the sample size to see how "lucky" or "unlucky" you have been at getting AA.

FWIW, I recently posted in a BBV thread about a session where I got AA 7 times (expected 4 times for 882 hands). 4 of those never saw a flop (won only blinds 1 time, open raiser folded another) and lost the other 3 pots to suckouts and coolers.

So on the plus side: I got AA far more than expected but on the negative side, everyone else either folded, sucked out or coolered me.

The point is not to whine but to illustrate the many facets of luck.

You and I may both get AA vs different villain's KK but all my villains stack off PF with KK while all of yours call a 3bet, see a flop with an A and don't put any more money in. In this case I have been far more lucky in that I had villains who put money in bad. Through no fault of the PF cards or your play, you get far less money (or sklansky bucks).

Looking at luck like how often you make sets can be a fun diversion but don't expect that all-in-EV, how often you make sets, how often you get set over set et cetera to help you that much.

      
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