[stat] flop fold vs. cbet - Page 2 - Heads Up Poker

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[stat] flop fold vs. cbet

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10-09-2009 , 04:37 AM

#26

chesterfieldking

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 479

I guess we just have different philosophies. I try to simplify the game. You take an already complicated game and analyze it by making it even more complicated.

10-09-2009 , 06:42 AM

#27

checktheriver

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 856

I agree kiddo, but it's not really because of multi-street aspects.

It's because EV(bet)>0 doesn't say much, the relevant info is EV(bet)>EV(check). Indeed when you look at it that way the cost of betting can be > 1sb when you compare it to checking. That happens on the river too, when you bet with a medium strength hand and get c/r'd it costs you roughly 2bb (a little less because your opponent has to bluff sometimes).

However I think that "Giving immediate profit on a raise is always wrong" because ranges should be built in a way that folding is always an option.

10-09-2009 , 09:00 AM

#28

kiddo

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 3,047

Quote:

Originally Posted by checktheriver

And I agree with you. It is because what interests us is EV(bet)>EV(check).

But I think the reason it gets complicated is that there are many streets left. Noone would claim that we would make an "immediate profit" if we always bet river just because the other guy will fold more then potodds dictate because now they fully understand that they will have to call x% of the times the other guy raises and also understand that this last bet will go in very bad for us.

10-11-2009 , 06:49 AM

#29

skrotis

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 623

Kiddo is absolutely right!

When you are intending to c-bet/call as a bluff on the flop you can´t just take the price you get for bluffing (1SB) into consideration.. You have to take the "call" part into consideration too! And the times you do call you are effectively giving yourself a worse price on the flop c-bet bluff. So villain can fold often enough but if he raises a lot and we can´t fold then then this hurts whatever profit we made on the flop c-bet in isolation.

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