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How long can a downswing take (#hands) How long can a downswing take (#hands)

08-21-2010 , 12:04 PM
I was wondering what's the longest downswing you guys ever had (I mean in number of hands).

At ipoker I probably played about 50k hands last couple of months where I had several huge downswings (like 300-400BB down, once even 500BB down in 2-3 days) but I never had a single upswing during that whole sample. Yeah the best upswing was like 100BB at most. Thank god there is 50% rakeback so I can still break-even / make a tiny profit.

But I'm just amazed how I can be on a 50k hands downswing, well in fact actually from the start (6 months ago) so make that 80k hands while I am a steady winner at 2 other sites that rake just as much. I try to play as "optimal" (where we heard that before) as possible so different sites shouldn't matter.

What I see on daily base is that I hit way less hands on ipoker then I do on other sites so that explains the downswing but shouldn't it be about time that I start to hit after 80k hands, as you can see I don't give up that easily but I'm starting to get pretty pissed off as it takes way too long imo.
08-23-2010 , 07:36 PM
downswings correlates to player skills. Lower skills --> larger downswings

my 5ctms
08-23-2010 , 07:48 PM
is it even a downswing?
08-23-2010 , 07:59 PM
Try this.

Plug in your winrate and standard deviation and voila!
08-23-2010 , 08:22 PM
How can it not be a downswing when I'm a consistent winner at 2 other sites for over 350k hands in the last 7-8 months?

Do you know where to find standard deviation in PT3?
08-23-2010 , 08:56 PM
Sorry - HEM user. I used to use PT2, but it was a long time ago.
08-23-2010 , 09:29 PM
From the 'general' tab, click on 'configure this report' (the tool option on the right hand side of the player summary info). From here scroll down to the bottom of the available stats and you can find stdev in BB/100 hands.
08-23-2010 , 11:12 PM
08-24-2010 , 12:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dragon1893
is it even a downswing?
i dont think so.

its like if you considered a downswing in a live game when you always lose if you have to sit by the dealer, but always win when you are in the 4 seat.

or if you always lose when you sit on the right seat as opposed to the left seat (although in Stars i'm sure sitting on the right would correlate in a lower winrate)
08-24-2010 , 06:16 AM
Info about the site where I win most:

Rake 5BB/100
Winrate excl rakeback 3BB/100
Winrate incl. rakeback 4BB/100 (20% rakeback)
Standard deviation: 30BB/100

Now the site where I complain about

Rake 7.5BB/100
Winrate excl rakeback -2BB/100
Winrate incl. rakeback 1.75BB/100 (50% rakeback)
Standard deviation: 20BB/100

Both taken from pretty small samples though as I verify my play in PT a lot to see how it effects my winrate in certain spots so I purge a lot of sessions to get the most recent results.
08-24-2010 , 06:24 AM
Well if you fill in any negative winrate it only talks about when you have an upswing. No matter what deviation you type. They say that I should have once in 50k hands a 7k hands upswing.

Either way I keep finding it strange that I make effectively when there was no rake 8BB/100 at the first site and 5.5BB/100 at the other site.
08-24-2010 , 07:30 AM
Does a high deviation mean I play to loose?
08-24-2010 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djdanny82
Does a high deviation mean I play to loose?
lol wat?
08-24-2010 , 04:49 PM
to lose?
08-24-2010 , 04:54 PM
nice, I will look up deviation in the dictionary

Yeah deviation means what I thought it means, so the looser you play the higher the deviation. Yeah maybe it also fits when you play way too tight, well I guess I'm on the loose site as ptr said that I had a 88% tilt factor.
08-24-2010 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djdanny82
nice, I will look up deviation in the dictionary

Yeah deviation means what I thought it means, so the looser you play the higher the deviation. Yeah maybe it also fits when you play way too tight, well I guess I'm on the loose site as ptr said that I had a 88% tilt factor.
I always thought Stars was the loosest site.

      
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