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Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

03-07-2020 , 04:18 PM
I played it a lot in my 20's, a lonnnng time ago, and my line bet was $3. I'm not sure I can bring myself to make $25 line bets (my starting roll was always 30 line bets) and whenever I've felt like looking for a $5 or $15 table I've had no luck. Maybe that's a good thing.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 12:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCanoe
Nerds. Let’s just enjoy the gambool
If you can't understand the discussion, that's fine. But trying to belittle those that do just reflects poorly on you.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 01:33 AM
Was just making a joke. No biggie
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 09:59 AM
leon,

First, congratulations on the the hits!

This occurred to me: obviously, the machines could report on what you held in certain situations, and the casino could know how close to 'perfect play' you are based on that.

Have you ever heard of someone being backed off, like in blackjack, because their VP play was 'too perfect'?

My guess is that the casino is perfectly happy taking their edge (even with optimal play), and it isn't worth their time to do this kind of analysis.

Of course, they're perfectly happy when people don't know basic strategy and the casino's edge is even higher.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 10:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golddog
leon,

Have you ever heard of someone being backed off, like in blackjack, because their VP play was 'too perfect'?

My guess is that the casino is perfectly happy taking their edge (even with optimal play), and it isn't worth their time to do this kind of analysis.
As long as the payback with perfect play is sub 100% there is 0 incentive to back someone off. If they have those kind of advanced analytics they might adjust the theoretical loss of perfect play players and lower the comps they offer accordingly but they are never going to refuse action on a plus ev bet. Even with blackjack they never back you off for perfect play based on basic strategy. They only back you off if you are able to count and make the game -ev for the casino.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCanoe
Was just making a joke. No biggie
Yeah I'm pretty sure Canoe was just messing around. Plus being called a nerd is a compliment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by golddog
leon,

First, congratulations on the the hits!

This occurred to me: obviously, the machines could report on what you held in certain situations, and the casino could know how close to 'perfect play' you are based on that.

Have you ever heard of someone being backed off, like in blackjack, because their VP play was 'too perfect'?

My guess is that the casino is perfectly happy taking their edge (even with optimal play), and it isn't worth their time to do this kind of analysis.

Of course, they're perfectly happy when people don't know basic strategy and the casino's edge is even higher.
I've never heard of that but it's an interesting question. Like others have said if you're +EV for the casino, you're +EV, just a matter of what degree.

I think they clearly do some sort of different analytic when it comes to comp and your rating though, more than just calculating your theo. I've spoken to several people who appear to play a similar game, similar hours etc who get quite different levels of comp- one is Chairman at the Wynn and one is not, for example. I have to figure there's a difference in their playing "ability" which is accounting for that. I don't have enough data to know. Of course, that could simply be their different abilities expressing themselves in theo and net loss.

For my dad and myself, he continues to get offers and is Chairman despite me being the bigger player now, at least over 2019. I received his Chairman's card in the mail recently, and inquired with our host about me. No dice- I "didn't lose enough". I've been unable to combine offers in the past (despite getting both offers, you just have to pick one), but I know for a fact other people have been able to. So clearly there's more to it than just my theoretical value as a player- I'm not actually worth that much to them, either bc I've run good or I'm not a total donk or both. Who knows.

Either way you'd assume they'd gather as much data as possible simply bc it helps them tailor their tactics. For instance, they could get more out of me personally if they offered session by session perks- bc I've proven if I sit too long on any given session my propensity to tilt off money goes up a lot. That's just me personally and it may not be worth it to them to make micro-adjustments for each customer, it's just an example of how data I've given them could be used. Or find some way to get me to play late at night- bc I'll be more likely to stay up, but then still wake up early, be tired and make bad decisions the next day. Stuff like that. My data clearly shows I tend to rise early and play regardless of when I stop the previous night.

Final installment should be coming at some point today.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bpb
If you can't understand the discussion, that's fine. But trying to belittle those that do just reflects poorly on you.
If you cant understand the sarcasm, thats fine.
But trying to patrol those that attempt it just reflects poorly on you
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 12:49 PM
Wow congrats on being back on track Leon, have to say this thread entertainment value is amazing, especially given currently have no idea when the virus concern will subside enough to think about making a trip.

Was in Vegas a couple months ago and got a free Buffett from Wynn app. As wife and I were going I told her I wanted to go look at your machines, she looked at me like I was crazy but now having the visual image of your surroundings makes thread even more entertaining.

Notably, I also played hours of 10 handed DDB that trip, didn’t hit a single 4As despite being dealt AAA twice. Maybe next time.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 01:16 PM
Richard Brodie, Microsoft multi-millionaire, was actually banned by CET. I think they flat out banned him from even going into any NV casino, including the WSOP. He played big, and got very, very lucky. He was a good online poker player too.

They basically banned him for being too lucky. IIRC he won hundreds of thousands.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 02:22 PM
[QUOTE=leon;55889018]Either way you'd assume they'd gather as much data as possible simply bc it helps them tailor their tactics. For instance, they could get more out of me personally if they offered session by session perks.../QUOTE]

Such as even more high-end bourbon--are you listening Wynn?

Thanks again for sharing your adventures.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
Richard Brodie, Microsoft multi-millionaire, was actually banned by CET. I think they flat out banned him from even going into any NV casino, including the WSOP. He played big, and got very, very lucky. He was a good online poker player too.

They basically banned him for being too lucky. IIRC he won hundreds of thousands.
Hundreds of thousands? Are you sure the numbers are correct, or is this a very old story? I know of a guy from the other forum who has an average bet of $1 million per roulette spin or blackjack, he has had some pretty big wins (and obviously huge losses) and doesn't get backed off.

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golddog

Have you ever heard of someone being backed off, like in blackjack, because their VP play was 'too perfect'?

My guess is that the casino is perfectly happy taking their edge (even with optimal play), and it isn't worth their time to do this kind of analysis.

Of course, they're perfectly happy when people don't know basic strategy and the casino's edge is even higher.

If you're just playing a typical -EV VP game and you're up some money, casinos won't really care about that.

However, I have heard of quite a few VP players who played solely -EV games, but only did so during big multiplier promotions, exploited a promotion via some sort of loophole, exploited a malfunctioning machine (e.g. a machine giving way more player's club points than it should) or things like that, who were then no-mailed, and in the worst cases had their players club card/benefits revoked.

I haven't, however, heard of a VP player being trespassed like they do with some BJ counters. But I'm sure that's happened though.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golddog
Have you ever heard of someone being backed off, like in blackjack, because their VP play was 'too perfect'?
I got backed off of VP once, but I was gaming a promotion, not exactly just playing the game straight up. They took my card and said I could talk to the manager in the morning if I wanted it back, but I didn't bother; other than the promotion there was nothing there worth playing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by leon
I received his Chairman's card in the mail recently, and inquired with our host about me. No dice- I "didn't lose enough".
Hasn't happened to me, but I've heard this sort of thing is becoming more common. CET is starting to deny people Seven Star even if they get the points; luckily I don't bother with them anyway because Seven Star has gone to **** in the last few years.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MuckPls
Hundreds of thousands? Are you sure the numbers are correct, or is this a very old story? I know of a guy from the other forum who has an average bet of $1 million per roulette spin or blackjack, he has had some pretty big wins (and obviously huge losses) and doesn't get backed off.

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk
This was from 2007-ish. There was quite a bit of chatter here about it. Maybe you can find it with search unless it's been lost/archived.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MuckPls
Hundreds of thousands? Are you sure the numbers are correct, or is this a very old story? I know of a guy from the other forum who has an average bet of $1 million per roulette spin or blackjack, he has had some pretty big wins (and obviously huge losses) and doesn't get backed off.

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk
Haha, yep. I remember reading his blog around 10 years ago and he did get banned for being too lucky at VP. Just google liontales.com and video poker. The one I happened to pullup show 240k royals at 100$ video poker in one trip along with a couple 60k hits.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
This was from 2007-ish. There was quite a bit of chatter here about it. Maybe you can find it with search unless it's been lost/archived.
Yep 2007. April when he got those 2 $240k royals and June 2 post he says he got banned.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 10:03 PM
Final Day

I manage to sleep until about 6am. Could have slept more, but I know I need to print out my tickets for the free drawing, we've got breakfast TBD, and last day in Vegas!

I head downstairs, and B is already up sitting in the lobby on his phone. I LOL and tell him he should have gotten coffee, the people at the coffee bar are awesome and will serve us before they're even open. We grab coffee and hit the machines.

We fire two 1k bullets to no avail, change machines and fire another 1k bullet before



BOINK!

I swear, this is literally the best trip ever. EVERY time it looks like I might get stuck, here comes a save. We fire a 4th bullet, hit nothing and are even for the AM session. I get my tickets printed out and head to Encore to deposit them in the drawing drum while B heads upstairs to place our room service breakfast order.



I've got 120 ish tickets. At 500 pts per tickets, I've earned 60000 pts this trip. That's a lot of coin in.

I deposit my tickets and note the drum is ridiculously full, as in I've never seen it that full before, as in I think my chances of hitting the drawing are basically zero. But not all the way zero! You're saying there's a shot. I head back to B and G's room.



They've never done room service before. Glad I could help them break that cherry! 8/10.

After, we head over to the craps tables hoping for a 10$ min. We find it, and it's good right off the bat. Bunch of small wins and profitable rolls, and the stack grows slowly but steadily. Both B and I are shooting reasonably well. T is up and wants to join. I'm in the middle of a good roll, and tell him to buy in. He refuses, not wanting to ruin mojo or something like that. I tell him, you know it doesn't make a difference, if I keep going I keep going, don't miss a good roll sitting on the side lines. I can't convince him, so he watches me proceed to build 8 up to 720$ and win a few grand on that roll before I seven out. He immediately comes in, slightly annoyed but what can you do? I gave him full license to come in mid-roll, he chose not to.

So now it's the three of us playing and it's still good. We manage to convince G to shoot and she throws the dice like a typical inexperienced person, but manages to hit a few numbers. It's almost 11am, time for me to go to the drawing. I know I'm probably not going to hit anything in the drawing, but I can't leave money on the table. We seven out right around 10:40am and I take my cue. I leave my chips on the table, wish them luck and head back to Encore.

At the drawing, they do their usual "pick 1st, then second, etc". 10 spots total. I'll take any free money, but 1st is 10k, 2nd is I think 5 k and 6-10 is only 500$ free credit. I win-

Spoiler:
jack S, of course.


Well, that was dumb. I head back to the Wynn and wonder if my friends are still at the table.

And, in fact they are! And they're still winning! I hop right back in and we pick up where we left off.



Stack at some point in the roll. I'm in for 5k and have the entire back rack filled with black.

It's now 11:30 ish. I need to head to the airport around 1:30 and I still have to pack. The table is cooling off a bit, so I mentally set a lock up point, and alas we finally reach it. No great rolls, but a bunch of decent ones. In for 5k, out for



Second flag of the trip!

I'm up 7k for the day. B and I grab a whiskey and he, G and I head for one last VP session. I'm skipping lunch. T heads to slots. I've got money to burn and I'm booking a huge win for the trip no matter what- such a good feeling.

We fire one bullet. Then two. Manage to get G to push the buttons for a bit. And then- dealt 4 AWAK?!

Spoiler:


Nope. Just one ace into 4 w/kicker. Still fun, and a shocking lightning bolt that had me and B cackling like loons again. G got to witness this one real time which was cool.

Fire a third bullet. Nothing. Up 1k for this session. OK, that's it. I need to pack and hang with T a bit before I leave. Let's book this win!



Came with 30k. Out for basically 65k.

We chill for a bit, then it's off for home. I cannot believe how amazing this trip was. I think 35k may be my single biggest Vegas score ever. Plus, the way the trip went was basically perfect- as you might be able to tell, there was always a save/bink/reversal. I was never stuck. Craps was basically amazing. VP was never terrible. Got to hang with friends and treat them to a good time. AND, I'm STILL ALIVE!!



Just a reminder of reality. Grabbed up all the empty straps I had at home when I got back. This game can be so good, and SO bad.

That's it. Next TR coming post facto, hopefully with another score. Thanks for reading!

Day 4 result- +8k
Overall- +35k
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 10:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
Richard Brodie, Microsoft multi-millionaire, was actually banned by CET. I think they flat out banned him from even going into any NV casino, including the WSOP. He played big, and got very, very lucky. He was a good online poker player too.

They basically banned him for being too lucky. IIRC he won hundreds of thousands.
He was also playing Full Pay Deuces Wild (100.76%) for $300 a whack. But it was those CET idiots' fault, they set the machine up for him!

6 years ago, my gf found a gaffed 10/6 DDB (100.07%) bartop at Gustav's Bar at Paris at all denominations (25c-$5). That lasted a few months at least. CET likes to screw up.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-09-2020 , 10:07 PM
Nice report Leon! Great draws drawing 4!
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-10-2020 , 01:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tringlomane
He was also playing Full Pay Deuces Wild (100.76%) for $300 a whack. But it was those CET idiots' fault, they set the machine up for him!

6 years ago, my gf found a gaffed 10/6 DDB (100.07%) bartop at Gustav's Bar at Paris at all denominations (25c-$5). That lasted a few months at least. CET likes to screw up.
I'm not sure those were screwups. Lots of places had +ev vp back then because vp was like printing money. I bet the casinos made bank even on the +ev machines. So why not put some out there to attract gamblers if most of the monkeys are playing them wrong anyway?
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-10-2020 , 02:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
I'm not sure those were screwups. Lots of places had +ev vp back then because vp was like printing money. I bet the casinos made bank even on the +ev machines. So why not put some out there to attract gamblers if most of the monkeys are playing them wrong anyway?
At that level it's definitely an error. And by 2007, there were VP several strategy makers for people to use. Even the Wizard of Odds had the strategy published on his website by then.

A computer that played perfectly would expect to make $1824/hr on average at 800 hands an hour on that machine. No casino is going to take that risk. It's possible he played "full pay" Deuces Wild badly enough where the house had the edge, but I doubt it.
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-10-2020 , 06:57 AM
Nice trip. As always, thanks for sharing!
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-10-2020 , 01:36 PM
I am happy that your trip was a success both financially and socially! It is really cool you were able to give your friends their first room service experience at no cost to them. The bankroll has been re-stocked!
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-10-2020 , 02:02 PM
From an only personal level, I'm happy that this will enable more epic trip reports!
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote
03-13-2020 , 04:22 PM
Leon, how is life in the E.R. so far?

Stay safe
Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last? Quote

      
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