There's always the Mandalay spa...

Bold part correct. You can check your bags at any hotel.

My comps at the "V" went byebye, too. My "host" has a new position so I am going to try and call and rustle something up. I sent them an email saying straight out that I am booked @ MGM instead of the "V" and still no love. One last phone call and I guess I'll be back @ MGM for MLK weekend.

The convention thing is a piece of this puzzle because room rates @ MGM, NYNY and the Mirage are all silly high on TUESDAY Jan. 19. Rates are within ten bucks of a typical Saturday night rate. So book me at MGM Sat.-Mon.

Time to go back to Craftsteak - it's been awhile and I told 2010 not to let the door hit it on the ass its way out town New Years. Last year really sucked so its time to schedule more fun this go round.

Congress could step in right now under their commerce powers if they wish. There are a ton of industries that draw from the Colorado River, not the least of wish is the oil companies, and there is no doubt that the Supreme Court's expansive commerce jurisprudence, from Comstock on back, would allow it. The use and distribution of the Colorado River's water drastically impacts interstate commerce.

Now they haven't yet because it's going to be a political nightmare and the rubber hasn't quite met the road yet necessitating such a horror, but Congress no doubt has the power to step in and do so.

You can take a look at Hutchins's treatise on Water Rights Law in the Nineteen Western States if you want to read more.

Look at the fundamentals, and keep an eye on the Case-Shiller index. We can revisit this next year as well to see if I'm right, but home prices have stabilized over the more recent months, and more importantly, even at elevated unemployment rates, the current income streams in Las Vegas as well as new speculative money flowing in will serve to keep the prices about where they are.

Obviously obtaining financing right now is difficult for many Las Vegas residents is difficult, but there is enough action in the speculation market to keep the prices about where they are right now.

Could a doomsday scenario play out? It's possible, but I think the far more likely result is that prices are at or within 2% of the floor and that they'll move upwards at a wretchedly slow rate from here.

The fundamentals suck.

2) Latest Case-Shiller data has LV as the worst city in the country and is still pointed south for 2011 values. Further, the high percentage of existing homes underwater is unprecedented. No one knows what that means. Can you say pent up seller's wanting to get out? So even with some economic turnaround, too many owners still want to or will have to find an exit before this is over. And every notch down only puts more existing owners under water. Unless you get tomorrow's price of -10-20% off today's values, I suggest that more patience will be rewarded on the buyer's side.

^^^^^^^^^This for sure. With 30+% of the market being all cash buyers(ie investors, and morons to boot for investing in a non liquid likely to depreciate asset and being happy with a 5-6% return LOL), there are any number of ways the buying market for Las Vegas real estate could collapse in a matter of weeks or months.

As long as Harry Reid is still running the show for the Democrats, any potential state of emergency that affects Nevada will remain on Congress's agenda.

More importantly to your national perspective, if water starts to trickle in that river, oil companies will be incurring larger costs of production and gas prices will rise accordingly. That will pressure Congress to get involved whether they want to or not.

I'm reminded here of wisdom from Warren Buffett: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." Just because LV is the worst city in the country doesn't tell us much about the city itself moving forward, though it tells us a lot about the past. It's as reasonable if not more so to suggest that LV's decline to the bottom of the Case Shiller index indicates that LV is on its floor or very close to it.

There are a high percentage of existing homes underwater, but that tells us nothing more than that a number of sellers held onto their homes on the way down hoping to make some of that gain back. Those who wanted to get out at a discount price have flooded the market already and are reflected in current prices, and right now a majority of the homes underwater belong to people who have no desire to leave Las Vegas. So long as they can afford to make their home payment, it's unlikely that they won't hold out until the market rises somewhat before selling to offset their losses.

Those that weren't able to make their home payments have already been foreclosed on or are counting the days until they are, so perhaps you were referring to pent up foreclosure properties that have yet to be liquidated, and that is certainly a concern. Still, the balance between those properties and the combination of those Las Vegans sitting on the sideline waiting to buy and speculative buyers will determine where the market goes.

As to the fundamentals, the unemployment rate has generally stabilized and visitor volume is up slightly, as is gaming revenue and traffic into Las Vegas from Arizona and California. There is a lot of noise in the indexes, but for the most part they're starting to trend either neutral or slightly positive. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicted gambling revenues will return to pre-recession levels by 2014, and while I'm not as bullish as they are, I don't think it's going to fall much more if at all.

Of course, you can disagree with me, and we've got it all archived next year so we can check back on this thread for some crow either way.

Go ahead, put your $ where your written mouth is and show us that you BOUGHT in 2011. Without that, even if you prove academically correct, from a real life planning point of view your talk is pointless w/o a real life purchase. If it proves that in hindsight I missed the "bottom", aw shucks. I don't care. As it sits today, IMO the risk is NOT worth the reward and I am so stupid with SOME of my $ that I actually play POKER. GASP!

If you want respect for your opinion, BUY in with your $.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, easy there killer. Nobody is saying you're stupid with your money for playing poker. Assuming you're a decent player, that's a reasonable investment, and even if you aren't decent, it's great entertainment as well. Where we merged from discussing home prices in Vegas to the morality or wisdom of playing poker in the same city is beyond me.

As for the rest, I already own a home in San Diego and can find better rates of return on other investment vehicles. But that wasn't the OP's asked for purpose. I believe he already made the decision to invest in a Vegas home and was asking for well-protected home values. An opinion of that doesn't require any personal investment from the person offering it, and the OP is free to take my advice or yours with as large a grain of salt as he or she sees fit.

Your post is a bizarre turn from what had been a reasonable discussion about home prices. You may be right a year from now or I may be right. The point of the discussion was to help the OP find well-protected home values in Vegas or to warn him from doing the same. You can call it "academic" or whatever you wish, but I hope we've at least given him or her something to think about. And I couldn't care less about internet respect.

This has been in the works at V/P for awhile.

From what I have heard from a few people, they are "reevaluating" their comp system. If you were RFL there, I wouldn't worry, you will probably be restored to that in February. They aren't sending out offers for Dec and Jan from what I was told, but will be in Feb. All my comp rooms and weekly freeplay have been cut off over these 2 months too.

n/m..

It's so funny when folks over react, pulling any and all hypothetical out of the air just so they can not be proven wrong... in their own eyes





will do... give me 6-8 weeks or so to find a piece of property and I will post it up.

I actually already made and offer a month and a half ago and had it accepted on a BEAUTIFUL home out towards the 95 west... originally it was a 500k home, made an offer of 179k on it and they said yes. the only reason I am not in it right this second were some unforeseen tax implications of paying for such a large purchase as I am coming from california(tax capital of the world). I had to rescind that contract and i missed that property as it sold soon after and I am now on the trail for a new home again since my tax situation has been ironed out

For a place that you live in (versus invest in) I agree its a great time. Las Vegas needs you and a 1000 more like you.

don't you invest in the place you're living in?

good luck regardless

Pure investment property is different than a primary residence. I don't think that needs to be explained.

It didn't. I was being sarcastic fwiw

There are better places to live and better places to invest in imo. Just saying (in a non-trolling type of way).

No, that's a neccesity of modern life, not an investment.

thank you very much sir... I appreciate that!

I'll be there this sunday through wed doing an intense search. This was why I asked my initial question, "are there areas other than summerlin/the parks and out towards 95 west down towards the durango blvd(floyd lamb state park) that I should be considering?"

I really have concentrated on those two areas mostly and I have been trying to stay away from extreme west and east and henderson.

I understand what you are saying and why you are saying it, but really... this is a bit of a tax play for us. California has become a nightmare as far as the tax structure and the TYPES of legislation that are being forced upon the people.After living here for all my life in southern california, we're done. not selling our property, but leaving to set up a primary in nevada.

there are two ways of thinking about investing in a depressed area(glass if half empty or glass is half full)... one is that it's a bad idea because there is no guarantee that i will ever recover(I dont see this for Las Vegas!)... the other is speculative in that it IS a wonder time to invest in an area if simply for that reason, it is depressed.

FYI, per yesterday's WSJ there is a lawsuit by banks that would require builders to build out a 14,000 unit development in "Inspiria" (less than 700 units completed). Can you imagine the impact of dumping another 13K+ units into the already over loaded sellers side of the demand/supply LV area real estate equation?

Thank you, but in context, owning a home is still.. and will always be.. an investment.

(However, yes, there is a big difference in an investment property)

Then you're doing it wrong. You should never look at buying your home as an investment.

Who?

if you're talking to me you've missed the main point, it's partly for tax purposes, california taxes are death incarnate. the investment portion of the equation is NOT really about making money, though we all expect to make money on our homes over a long enough timeline, it's simply to protect what money we've laid out and to secure a primary homestead. I can live with a 5-8% regression in the short term, and I really don't see that from the point where we are now. Is the purchase going to appreciate, eventually...

http://las.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailVi...18&s=LAS&t=LAS

only two more posts until doorbread isn't the pic at the top of the page every time i open this thread.. plz..plz... post now for my sanity...

...about anything other than this repetitive real estate bickering back and forth

Let me see if I can help you out.