j9 vs AA is the same thing that cost me 1500 at 5/10 the other day... laid out exactly the same. turn trips.

WSOP Wrap Up

Finished up the last week of my WSOP yesterday. I was on good pace to finish the prop bet hours as planned for but unfortunately had a bad session yesterday and quit 2.5hrs short. I was disappointed to leave so close to being done but it was more important to get up while I was running horribly and not playing my best. I honestly would have left sooner if I didn't have the goal in mind of finishing the prop bet but I told myself I could stick it out. Then I ran KK into AA and lost more than I should have (still didn't go broke so thats a win) and I quit pretty much instantly after that.

The week was definitely one of my most swingy weeks of 2/5 ever. Started off with a big loss on Wednesday, followed up by one of my biggest wins on Thursday which was headlined by my JT holding up on KQ9 against AJ for a 2k pot.

Friday I dug myself into a 1k hole early and managed to get out of it and ended my session in the black courtesy of a reg calling me down in a 3 bet pot with JJ against my QQ on a 632TQ runout. I got pretty lucky to hit my set on the river but I'm shoving a lot of rivers anyways.

Saturday I was stuck early and battled back to almost even when I got AA all in pre against KK and held, walking away with a pretty good win. Thinking about this hand and then my KK hand from yesterday makes me happy because its an example of the reciprocal edge I have on the player pool. When I have the AA, my opponents pretty much always go broke with KK. But when I have KK and they have AA I get away before going broke with a much higher frequency. So even though I can't know what side of a cooler I'm going to be on, I know that when I'm on the right side I'm going to win more than I lose when I'm on the wrong side.

Sunday was fairly nusto as early on in the session I played a giant pot with Mr. RobFarha. I picked up KK on the button and 3 bet to 80 after Rob iso'ed a limper to 25. He made the call and we saw a flop of KQ5r. He checked, I bet 125 and he calls. Turn comes a brick, I believe a 3, and Rob leads for 225. At this point I don't think I can raise because it lets him off too easy if he has AK or decided to flat with AA. I call. River comes a T and rob leads for 400, leaving 300 behind. I announce all in and me and Rob look at each other with laughter. He says "did you really overset me here? Ok I call" and flips up his QQ. For the next few minutes I couldn't stop laughing at the absurdity of that hand getting set up between us.

I would end my session pretty much right where I was after this hand but not before losing about half of what I was up and then going back up at the end of the session. Then yesterday happened which I already talked about, with my KK v AA hand ending what was a crazy swingy week and a long WSOP.

All in all I'm satisfied with my WSOP this year. I did infinitely better than last year when I had no direction and wasn't half the player I am now. I didn't play as much 5/10 as I would have liked but I don't think I was ready to play that game all summer. Got in 260 hours which while short of my original goal, I'm happy with that volume. Its hard to say how I ran overall because I had several of my biggest losers this summer but also many of my biggest winners. I can definitely say I could have played better as the increased volume caused me to make some sub-optimal plays. In the end though I won at a rate just over what my 2/5 hourly was before the series so even though I think my EV was higher given the quality of the games, I have to be satisfied with those results.

Taking a few days off here to rejuvenate and should be back sometime this weekend to finish up the last couple hours of the prop and start mixing in some non-holdem games to my playing schedule.

Congratulations on a successful WSOP! And good luck as you branch out to non-NLHE games. I think that is useful for almost any player.

FWIW, I would almost never raise that river with AA and would frequently fold. I can understand the argument for not folding but IMO it would be very rare in a 2-5 game for that raise to be correct.

All my best,

--Nate

Thanks man, I'm excited to start playing some other games.

Which hand are you talking about here? I don't remember raising AA on a river. Do you mean if I had AA in the spot against Rob?

Yup! Sorry, read too fast. NH.

--Nate

Congratulations on a very successful WSOP season. The 2-5 game at the V is a pretty tough game and the fact that you have been a winner at it all year is something you should be very pleased with.

Great thread and gj!

Hey guys, just finished up a pretty short week, only played 4 days and played shorter sessions that I was playing during the WSOP. Friday I played some 2/5 and finished up the prop bet with squid, rob and the other V reg. Finished the 500hrs just north of 10bb/hr which locks up a win in the bet. Rob and squid are both done and we are now just waiting for the other guy to finish up.

Saturday I did something different and played 8/16 O8. I really was just sick of holdem and needed a change of pace. I also want to start playing/learning it and other games as I find limit games interesting. I felt pretty good about my session and even with a pretty basic grasp on the game I was easily better than half the table. Ended up with a decent profit but left after about 3 hours since I got into a bunch of spots I was unsure about and didn't want to overwhelm myself thinking about too much new stuff so I quit and played some holdem. I wrote down a bunch of spots to discuss with some friends of mine who know limit games much better than I do. It really was fun to play a different game, and the looks I got from dealers/floor when they saw I was playing 8/16 O8 instead of 2/5nl were priceless. The guy at the desk that called my name was baffled to see it was me that he had called and I even had one dealer ask me if I was lost.

The last 2 days I was back to holdem and had mostly unremarkable sessions, one small loss and one decent win. The games have died down a lot and aside from obviously being lower EV than WSOP games, they play so much different. Its definitely an adjustment to go back to normal games where ranges are tighter and people fold more after playing in more ramped up games all summer. Its less profitable, but definitely makes for fewer headaches since there aren't nearly as many tourney kids or aggro fish there to put you in tough (but profitable) spots. Part of me likes it better that way but obviously given the choice I'd sit in WSOP games all year if I could.

I know this isn't a strat thread really, but curious about some
Of the spots you got into that you weren't sure about.

Yea I'm not gonna get too in to strat here. Most of it was preflop stuff, nothing too exciting. There was one hand where I was lost and just kept betting because I didn't know what else to do. I don't have the full hand history anymore since I deleted them after having a discussion with a good O8 player I know. Basically I flopped top pair with an A with ****ty back-door draws and kept betting when I turned a backdoor flush and low draw. The main mistake was the flop bet. Then I bet the river after making a ****ty low where I just had a live deuce, got raised and mucked it.

Took it pretty easy again this week, played 4 days, booked 4 losers. I'm running pretty bad but also playing B game so thats part of it. Its making me think about hands and question a lot of things which can be good and bad but I feel like I'm still sticking to the fundamentals that I know are right even when I get smacked in the face by variance.

Today was the last day of July for me, and it was one of my worst months. I didn't lose, but my total win for the month is in the 3 figures and my hourly is a single digit. Obviously lol sample size but still a frustrating stretch.

Since I've been playing less I've had more time for fun things. Just in the last week I went bowling one night, went to a 51's game (minor league baseball) and played a round of golf. This has for sure helped make the losing stretch easier because I don't worry so much about poker when I've got other things going on instead of just stewing over losing sessions. I hope I can keep a good balance of poker and non-poker activities because it definitely helps my mindset when I do go and play.

Anyways, looking forward to better things in August. Only a month until football starts, which can not come soon enough.

I am glad to hear that you are doing some fun things, the variance will work itself out. On the other hand, life has a way of passing by quickly . . . so good for you on living it to it fullest !!

Wrapped up another week today. I played more this week than the last couple and am slowly getting back to my regular volume after taking it slow for a few weeks after the WSOP. Most of the week was a pretty good rebound after a terrible last week. I booked moderate wins my first 4 days and felt pretty good about the way I played. Missed a few thin value bets and wasn't thrilled with some cbets but nothing too bad. I definitely felt like I was getting back into a rhythm, though as most win streaks are, a good chunk of it was variance induced.

Today that rhythm got thrown completely off. After about an hour of 2/5 a PLO game got called. I haven't been playing much PLO at all but when I saw the lineup I knew I had to play. A guy from LA I used to play with occasionally at Aria was there and when he's in the game its insane. He plays basically 100% of hands preflop, almost always for a raise, and isn't afraid to put lots of money in on flops where he has the worst of it. He's wealthy outside of poker and usually plays bigger games so he's just there to gamble.

I got on the list and after not too long a wait I got in the game. As advertised it was a crazy game. Some sort of straddle was on nearly every hand, and it was 30-70 to see the flop. Most hands went 4-6 ways to the flop. This makes it basically impossible to maneuver since with that many people seeing the flop you just have to make hands.

I was definitely a bit rusty but with how crazy the game was playing I had a huge advantage just playing tight. I definitely played too passively in a few small pots since I don't have a great sense of when I can stab at a multiway pot since it just feels like I'm gonna get called even though no one has shown an interest in the pot. I think the correct answer is that most of the time you can't since there are too many combinations of hands out and the turn always changes the complexion of the board. I must have just ran into times today where it would have worked.

Anyways I lost a fair bit in the game, much of it coming from calling raises in bloated multiway pots with good hands and whiffing over and over again. At 30-70 per flop it gets expensive when you miss every one. We may have some rare strat discussion itt as I'm gonna go over the major pots I lost today and anyone who is so inclined can feel free to critique my play/analysis. Unfortunately there aren't any major winning pots to discuss, as in 4.5 hours of play I won a grand total of 2 pots, chopping a 3rd.

First spot: Straddled, a bunch of limps and a guy with ~300 makes it 60. I call with QJ87ds. Theres another caller and it gets 3 bet to 320. The original raiser calls all in and I decide to fold since I'm ~1k effective with the other two guys and am probably dominated by some of their holdings, so I can't really call and try to crack aces.

Second spot: 5 ways to flop for 20 each, I have QJJT. Flop T98. Checked to me and I pot it, the action guy calls behind me and another player calls up front. Turn 3, now the first guy leads for 300, I fold and the other guy calls. Obviously on the turn I'm done, but whether to bet at all is interesting. I could wait for a safe turn since so many cards can come off that suck for my hand since all I have is the bare nut straight. An advantage of that is also that if the action guy checks I may be able to just get it in now and hope I'm not free-rolled, which is unlikely since I hold the J.

Third spot: I overlimp the co with KJJT, button straddler pots it to 70, goes 4 ways to the flop. Flop is A83, checks to straddler who shoves for basically exactly pot, folds back to me and I call. I wasn't sure about this in game but after running some equities its an easy call. I need 33% to break even and worst case I'm against top set and I'm 29%. The guy had just lost a big pot and had rebought with what seemed to be case money since it was less than his other buy-ins, so his range is way wider than just top set. He ended up having A8Q4 with no hearts, giving me about 45%. We ran it twice and I bricked both.

Fourth spot: Crazy guys have left, I open 3456 to 15, one caller behind, both blinds call. Flop 622. Checked to me and I bet 45 as a semi-bluff with my top pair/****ty inside wrap. One guy calls leaving himself about 250 left. Turn Js, he checks and I bet 115 as a barrel/semibluff/I don't know what else to do here. He shoves and I call getting 3.7:1 hoping one of my draws is live. It wasn't. He had 22** for quads.

Fifth spot: I raise to 25 after a couple limps with AKKJ and a good player 3 bets to 95. We are 700 effective so I don't think I can fold really even though I have an ace and a pair in my hand, which is usually bad against a 3 betting range consisting of mostly AA hands. However, this guy had shown down hands where he 3 bet without AA, and we are deep enough that I could call and try to bluff some flops that look good for my range. I also didn't think he would 3 bet all his AA hands this deep since he can only get 1/7th of the effective stack in. Being oop and not knowing exactly which flops I could bluff since he could be 3 betting some rundowns, I decided to 4bet/get it in, which is what happened and I ran into AA obviously and lost both run outs. So either my thought process was right and I just happened to run into AA or it was wrong, I'm honestly not really sure.

Even though I lost almost what I was up the whole week at 2/5 in one short session, I'm still happy I played. The game was insane so my EV was likely higher than 2/5, but its PLO and in the short term variance doesn't give a **** what your EV is. I was definitely feeling a bit results oriented after and while having a conversation with Squid afterwards I said something like "yea, makes me feel like I shoulda just played holdem". He snapped that right outta me basically saying that you can't think that way because as long as you have the roll for it playing in games like that will pay off in the long run. He's right and really I knew that but after a night like that I sometimes need a reminder. The thing is, in games like that the long run takes so long because those lineups are rare and its PLO so variance is crazy. That makes it hard to have a long term view after losing but really the results of this one session are meaningless. Part of taking advantage of a rare lineup means sometimes getting smacked in the face knowing you're gonna have to wait a long while before such a lineup happens again.

Anyways this got way too long, just wanted to post some of this stuff since it was interesting and I got into so many spots where I really just didn't know what to do, which pretty much never happens in holdem hence why my updates get somewhat monotonous/boring when I just play the 2 card game.

I didn't take the time to explain for the non-poker followers out there (though I suspect most of them stopped reading months ago) but for those that are still following along please ask here if something requires further explanation.

If you have any interesting O8 hands/Qs feel free to shoot me a PM. I've actually been working on my PLO game a lot post-wsop as the 2/5 rxr game here is sick so I'll take a shot at these hands

1) What's our position? If we're sure the 3bettor has AA, the other villain won't 4bet and we're last to act on the flop it seems close even with a two-gapper in the middle. I feel like it'd be a call if we're closing the action or had a single gap. I'd definitely flat a rundown with suit.

2) Effective stacks and position are relevant but you can't go wrong with betting flop. you have the nuts with a blocker in a game where people play bad and over-value non-nut hands. nh

3) Thoughts on 3-betting pre to buy position? I guess that KJJTss to the king has enough post flop playability to 3bet for value. obv flatting is fine too and might be best with certain stacks and villains.

4) I like checking back the turn. We're not really betting the flop for value and we pick up some potential outs on the turn so I'd rather utilize our position to control the pot size and check back. Most of his range is going to be 2x (especially if he's in the blinds) and Axdd and a lot of those hands also contain a J so we don't really have much FE. Also since we raised pre we should have less FE since 2x isn't in our perceived range. We can always decide to bluff river if he checks again.

5) Interesting spot. I haven't done any work with 4-betting in my game other than the obvious pump/shove AA spots so I really have no clue if a 4bet is good or bad. So I'll just comment on flatting. If we call the 3bet, theoretically we'd need ~42% equity to get in on the flop and against a range of AAxx and we'll flop that ~30% of the time. I would think that AKKJds is one of the few hands containing an ace that we could flat even being OOP, especially if villain isn't particularly solid.


Totally agree with squid. The game you describe is how my game plays like 70% of the time. it's super swingy but totally awesome at the same time. And since you aren't playing it every session you're still playing holdem and less swingy plo games which reduces your overall variance.

I've realized quickly that if you just stay disciplined preflop, play in position as much as possible, build pots when you flop good equity and steal a pot here and there that nobody seems interested in you'll crush these games.

I think I am with PV96... I think you might have more playability post flop than you gave yourself with the double suiting if you can get to it for a controlled amount... $95. I can certainly see your reasoning for getting it in pre, oop and unsure, but shoving seemed somewhat problematic to me ADDING to the swinginess, not diminishing it.

was part of your decision of going all that you would run it twice? if it was, that makes a lot more sense.

My bad, I wrote these last night while tired so forgot some positional stuff/stack sizes, I'll try to clarify here.

I was in LP, the 2nd caller was behind me on the button and the 3 bettor was in the blinds. The 3 bettor was the crazy guy so I wasn't sure he had AA, and the original raiser called the 3 bet for less and was all-in. I could be against one AA hand but also am probably dominated by a ABBB/KQJT type hand, not to mention I have another player besides the 3 bettor to act behind me. I considered 3betting to isolate the original raiser but didn't see much point in that since I'd just be getting it in heads up against a probable better hand.

900 effective and I was 3rd to act out of 5 otf with the crazy guy behind me. This is why I considered check/raising but on that board I couldn't be sure he would bet so I did myself. Getting 2 callers I'm just looking for a brick ott so I can commit.

Yea but since the raiser was to my direct left and got a couple callers already I didn't think I would buy anything. I could see an argument for raising to knock out the button straddle (I was CO) but such raises weren't knocking anyone out so I leaned towards a passive pre-flop strategy keeping the pot smaller and waiting to jam until I flopped enough equity. This was only viable because the players were making it easy to get money in whenever you wanted so I didn't see much reason to bloat pots pre unless I was trying to get all in with AA hands.

Yea I agree with checking back turn. Deeper I could see just potting it and threatening a huge river bet but his stack size makes the barrel less effective. I was probably a bit tilted at this stage tbh.

Yea in hindsight it is probably better to flat and check/raise flops where I flop good equity and also one's where it looks like I flopped good equity and he will have to release AA like lower and middle connected boards. In position this is certainly what I'd do but here I just thought being oop I would rather get it in now.


Yea I agree, I have a love/hate relationship with PLO and will certainly be back for more. Thanks for your comments on those hands.

No, this guy was sometimes going twice and sometimes not so I wasn't sure if he would go twice. That doesn't change equities so its not really a consideration for me. Reducing variance is fine, but I'm rolled for the game so I'm not gonna make a play that might be lower EV in order to run it twice.

so then you thought you were ahead as opposed to trying to catch the variance train and come from behind for at least 50% of the pot.

I guess that's not meshing with the OP where you seemed slightly confused as to where you were. Maybe I'm not reading it right.

Bolded is a completely fishy thought process. I love when people do this because they are making bad calls just because they'll get 2 cracks. So they will suck out twice as often but its only for half as much. EV wise its exactly the same but since they know theres a higher chance they will get some money back now they don't care about getting it in bad.

I'm not saying I'm 100% sure I made the best play in that spot. Just saying that in any spot whether to run it twice or not is not a consideration when I'm making a decision. I made the decision to 4 bet based on what I thought was most profitable at the time. I could have been, and probably was, wrong. Hope that makes more sense.

I mean that is pretty obvious taylor, and kind of goes without saying.

I am trying to get a handle on where YOUR thoughts were before stacking it off.

I agree with your hindsight. To me, if you are looking for future reference, in a situation like this, this will be a good hand to remember. I especially like the thought that there may be a lot of flops that hit good equity and put you ahead and allow you to move the villain off AA or get a call from him when he is behind.

Your posts about running it twice are dead on. I seldom run it twice so I don't often have to think that process through.

This is something I've thought quite a bit about and can see both sides. On one hand PLO is about fold equity and getting someone off of 30%+ equity is huge even if you are ahead. However, I have settled on running it twice with people who always will go twice. It reduces variance which is a good benefit in live PLO where the game moves slowly and the swings are massive. Although it seems like you're always chopping when you're on the right side of 60/40's or whatever, in reality you still have that edge and will simply scoop the pot more often than your opponent will.

It also makes the bad players not realize how bad they play because they chop so many pots where they get it in bad and just go "well that was a coinflip, I get half and you get half just like is supposed to happen". It encourages people to get it in badly a lot where they wouldn't if you only go once. In live PLO where my strategy is more or less nut peddling this is optimal because I'm looking to capitalize on peoples calling mistakes more so than folding out their equity anyways.

I will however only go once if someone else decides to go once with me. We either always go twice or always go once. I also never go twice in holdem no matter what.

Bro: I totally agree with Squid...dude sounds like a really good guy with a lot of knowledge. J/k thx for the love sir. Missed you young guns today, room was quiet as hell

That he is.

Took off today and tomorrow for some brief r&r (and a little golf). Keep crushing and I'll see you Thursday!

No-Swingin

Hey guys, wasn't going to post an update this week since I didn't feel like I had anything interesting to say, but decided to write a bit anyways. This week was a pretty dull week, had one big day and the rest were either small wins or marginal losers. For that reason I didn't really see a point in another boring weekly update.

What I really want to talk about is how its gone overall post-WSOP and some comments about it. Looking at my records, in the month since the WSOP ended I'm just barely above break even. I've been through many stretches like this before but they are still some of the hardest for me to take personally. It's what I've decided to call "No-Swingin". I'm not on a downswing per se, because I'm not losing money, but I'm not winning either. When I play week in and week out and come out with nothing over long periods of time it can get frustrating. In many ways extended break-even stretches can be harder than relatively shorter losing stretches. I start to question everything and sometimes change things I shouldn't be changing.

Its hard to blame variance because playing in deep games doesn't lend itself to getting sucked out on when all-in before the river (though thats happened my fair share). Variance tends to manifest itself in non-showdown areas like getting lots of bad turn cards, having to fold to 3 bets with a higher than average frequency, good cbets not working, or getting sucked out on before the money is all in and either folding before showdown or getting to showdown anyways. Thats just a few examples as the list is pretty much infinite.

For me this makes it harder to evaluate my play because its not as simple as "well I got my money in good and they got there". Sometimes even though it feels like I played bad, in reality I just ran into an unfortunate yet unavoidable situation. I end up racking my brain going over hands that I feel I played bad because I lost but really were fine. This in turn draws my focus away from the game and reduces my edge because I'm not in tune to whats going on.

This isn't to say I'm not making any mistakes, I'm just pointing out that when I leave a session I can almost always point out actual mistakes, but also have a bunch of other hands that I think are mistakes but aren't. I rarely miss a hand or decision that I messed up, but I often get a bunch of "false positives".

As I said before, these stretches are still tough for me, but they are definitely getting easier. A huge part of that is having understanding poker friends that don't mind me bouncing what seem like standard hands to them to help me keep my mind from convincing itself that I made a bunch of mistakes where really I just happened to lose money in a good spot. Everyone has different strengths and weaknesses so something one person may find standard another may find difficult and vice versa. Thats why its important to keep an open mind when someone asks about or posts a hand that is really easy to you because sooner or later you might have a situation that gave you trouble but others find trivial.

The other way its getting easier to deal with these stretches is having gone through several of them before and having more experience in general. Its a helpful tool to be able to tell myself "relax, you've been through stretches like this before. You're not doing anything majorly wrong and are a proven winner in these games. Its mostly variance, you just need to stick to what you know works." This is an internal dialogue I've had to have with myself a fair amount lately and not being able to say those things in my first few bad stretches made them that much worse because I didn't actually know if what I was doing was right since I wasn't a proven winner.

Another interesting phenomenon that I can only believe comes from experience is how quickly (or slowly) I notice run bad. A couple days ago I lost a 1k pot all-in as a 2:1 favorite and I wasn't phased at all. I had just stacked the iceman for a bit more than what I lost in that hand so I felt like I was still running good overall. Not until I glanced over my post-WSOP results did I realize how poorly my results have been. I feel like this is another product of my knowing that I have an edge long-term which makes me not notice short term fluctuations as much. The calmness of mind that comes from this is a huge bonus because worrying about short term swings is both exhausting and counter-productive.

As often happens this post got way longer than expected but the main point is that while losing or long break-even stretches will never be fun, with experience they start sucking less because there is less uncertainty regarding the size and existence of my edge.

It's definitely a good feeling to be able to get through stretches of bad results with more confidence, thereby making them shorter because they won't be as prone to being extended by bad play. This to me is a huge accomplishment because so many players lose more than they need to during bad runs because of the bad play it causes.

Therefore right now my focus is playing my A-game, finding areas I need to improve, and letting the results be what they may. I dare say that having that mindset just might make this and future tough stretches borderline pleasant!

I have followed this thread since day one so I know you are an extremely solid player and so do you. I have also been through exactly what you are writing about but I would not be able to put it as well as you have and in the terms you have described.

I will go as far as suggesting you continue doing:

This

"Tell myself "relax, you've been through stretches like this before. You're not doing anything majorly wrong and are a proven winner in these games."

This

"Knowing that I have an edge long-term."

And This

"Therefore right now my focus is playing my A-game."


I will be in Vegas for the last week of August.

I hope to see you at the end of the month at the V so we can discuss your forthcoming upswing. Don't let me down.