in 10years broski... its gunna take awhile before the market crashes again and then re stabilize i expect over 10years for this after its second market dip.

It seems like there is a decent market in turnkey homes. I'm surprised that some savvy individuals aren't out there buying up the least distressed properties and putting a little money in them and turning them over. I know this generally isn't the type of market for buying fixer uppers and selling them but from what people are saying in this thread it seems plausible.

The 411 from today's Wall Street Journal via the Las Vegas Sun: http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009...rough-next-ye/

Cliff Notes: Lots more foreclosures to come in LV market. Steep drop in prices to continue from 6/09 through 6/10, then moderate drops from 6/10 through 6/11. Nationwide prices to begin recovery from 6/10 through 6/11.

christ vegas people. Pay your mortgage, you are killing the economy for the rest of the country

Buying a house essentially became gambling for tons of people. Once you've already lost, why keeping paying?

There is a school of thought which has considerable merit that the financial industry created the fiasco. They gave loans to people to buy houses who never should have qualified and artificially created the hyper-housing inflation bubble. They gave 0 downpayment loans, and no-documentation loans when they knew people were lying about their assets and income. They let completely unqualified people buy multiple houses with the intent to flip, again without adequate evidence that they could afford to pay the mortgages should anything go wrong. And they bundled together hundreds of these mortgages that everybody knew were individually dangerous and created AAA-rated securities out of them to resell so they could rush back with new capital and generate more mortgages doomed to fail. And most everyone involved was just hoping they'd get rich and get out before it all collapsed.

So I don't have a lot of sympathy for the banks. Since I am "painfully honest" and capable of covering a 50% mortgage deficit, I will do so, but not without some serious annoyance and moral tumult. Sadly for the Vegas housing market, not very many people are able and willing to cover a huge mortgage loss.

I understand how this whole thing happened. And I dont not feel sorry for the banks, nor do I feel sorry for the people (those that acted irresponsibly, not those that were living within their means and lost their jobs) who cant pay their mortgage. Just like I dont feel sorry for people that cant pay the credit card bills. People just need to take responsibility for their actions, and not blame the evil banker who tricked them into a loan.

I mean, seriously, I find it amazing that people actually use the excuse that they didnt know what they were getting into, though real estate would always go up, etc.

Moral of the story: people are dumb, and other people (banks in this case) prey on the dumb. Everyone's wrong. The consequence to the "people are dumb" part is basically meaningless, since those people just walk away from their mortgages. The consequence of the "preying on the dumb" part is what we are stuck in now. That there was nobody around to smack both sides in the head and tell them to knock it off is the solvable part of the problem.

I just hope in the future, the people who walked away from their mortgages are never ever given any type of credit again. While the banks should not have been lending to unqualified people, it is still the people's fault. Claiming ignorance they they cant afford a 500k house on 50k/year is just plain wrong.

Instead of punishing the bad investors who contributed to this mess I think it’s more likely that we’ll bail them out. Since a much larger percentage of the buying population will now have a foreclosure on their credit report, those black marks may ultimately get looked upon with more forgiveness than they had historically. Heck, the government might even pass laws to this effect in an effort to resuscitate buying.

While I agree that most of people who got foreclosed on have their own greed or lack of investing savvy to blame, let’s not forget how branding them all as uncreditworthy pariahs affects the rest of us. If none of those people can ever get a loan again, the pool of prospective buyers shrinks tremendously. Simple rules of supply and demand will tell you that this forces home prices even lower.

I don’t pretend to fully understand this complex mess we’ve gotten ourselves into. But I will say this: as painful as it is to even think about bailing out the fools who got us into this mess, the alternative might actually be worse.

Maybe about 7 years ago a friend came to me and asked my opinion about a mortgage they were thinking about. They were looking at a newly constructed house in a somewhat swanky area, and were trying to be sure they could afford it. Apparently she was aware enough that what she was hearing seemed a little odd, so she went looking for second opinions. When I heard the details I about tossed my cookies.

Me: "WTH! No way you can afford that. Do you guys have some source of income or wealth I don't know about?"
Her: "No... but the bank says we can afford it. They did the calculations for us and said it was ok."
Me: "NO way."
Her: "Yeah--it would only take 80% of our combined take home pay. That'd leave us with 20% of our income to live on."
Me: "!!!!!!!"

I explained the insanity of this and ultimately they bought a house that cost about half as much. Which is good since one of them lost their job about 12mo later.

Yeah, I do lay a lot of blame on the banks for crap like this. People are amazingly financially stupid. They are willing to hand their financial affairs over to "experts" and trust the advice they get. And when a mortgage "expert" is telling them that this 0-down loan that will require 80% of their combined pay is just fine and completely normal and everybody is doing it, they don't necessarily know otherwise.

A similar thing happened to someone else I know. He relied completely on the bank and mortgage folks, and they prayed on him. He's not stupid, but he's not a detail person. And things like interest rates and balloon payments just kinda sailed past him. All he heard was "we can lower your payments from $3000/mo to $2200/mo--sign here". He has a lawyer now, who is claiming they suckered him into a classic predatory loan. May not help him in the end, but it could be an interesting foreclosure fight.

I am all about personal responsibility. Real big on that. But when folks rely on experts and are duped, then the situation is different. They were trying to be responsible and were instead prayed upon.

And at the end of the day, this really isn't about right or wrong any more, (although any one who was affirmatively misled should sue the crap out of those who did the misleading!) it's about restoring order in the marketplace. Because without an orderly functioning re-sale marketplace NO ONE is safe. That is why bail out measures were appropriate. Bail outs are, by definition, unfair, but will act to protect everyone's long term best interests by preserving and maintaining a functioning marketplace.

IMO, that is why it is OK to squeeze your own lender hard if that is what you need to do to be able to afford to stay in your home. Your bank got bail out $ for PRECISELY this event. And the fewer walk away's that happen creates a better real estate resale marketplace that will eventually be based on non-forced sales.

Side note 1: Legal definition of "fair market value" - the price a willing buyer would pay a willing seller, neither under a compulsion to buy or sell. Well, when 1/2 the current real estate sales are foreclosure based, your marketplace isn't working an FMV basis, is it?

Side note 2: I am talking against my own self interest. My home in LA has dropped in value like everyone else's. But since I didn't re-fi to buy new toys, it is my taxes going to fund all this bail out crap. But, IMO, things got so bad and are not better yet, that taking exceptional and costly measures to preserve and restore the functioning of key marketplaces, banking, stocks, and residential real estate, is worth expense and the exposure to unfairness. My mother is 94 - I'll let her talk to you about what life was like without a functioning bank system. And we were closer to the brink of that than most of you know. And we are NOT out of the woods yet, either.

I'm reading here and elsewhere that banks are turning down multiple full-price offers that involve financing in favor of much lower all-cash offers.

Can anyone in the RE/Mortgage/Banking area put forth any possible explanations for this?

I ask because another site I read is suggesting that banks may have knowledge of an imminent credit lockup, which might explain the seemingly inexplicable behavior of banks to be accepting cash offers 10-20% less than customarily financed full-price offers.

Is something brewing?

I'm going to add just a few thoughts to this thread as person who bought in Nov. 2007 at what I thought was more apparent time of the economic downturn. I rushed as usual because had I held out until 2009 I would of course got something even better for my buck.

Timing is of the essence - but I'm not complaining because the 2 years that I have had a presence in LVega$ I will never get anything better of a time.

A couple of more additional points.

Although I paid for my foreclosed property in cash and the value of that property has diminished if I summize all my properties that I have bought over the period (just like my retirement plan for 401K) then I'm still well ahead. I didn't put all my eggs in one basket and I knew that coming to LVega$ if you don't have the resources to live there if there is a disaster - Then you should not be going there. Of course there was risk and evaluation was made about that.

The condominium association where I live had a an owner's meeting just recently with the directors. In a complex that has 256 apartments only 5 owners + directors showed up. Owners who have bailed out in the last 24 months have left a burden to the rest of the owners in the association. Our management company has indicated that 20% of the apartments and in distress - That means that they are not playing their monthly dues.

Because of this I have seen marked drop in quality around the complex. Things don't get fixed quick or at all. The tenants that rent in the complex I believe are of a lower class level than what the were facilities intended. This is because the owners are taking anyone just so the that they could have capital flow to pay off these mortgages and monthy maintenance fees.

While I do understand your points about the bail out being necessary, and I agree that it was necessary, and things would have gotten much worse, though I am in the side that thinks things will get worse and that just because the stock market is going up, we are not even close to a recovery at this point. I still cannot get behind people walkout on their mortgage, just because they are underwater on their house. If you overpaid for a house, well that is just too damn bad, suck it up, and pay your debts.

I bought a house in the Spring of 2008, not the high point, and not the low point. While I am not underwater, since I am responsible, put my 20% down, didnt buy more than I could afford, I am sure I am still down on my purchase. But fact is, that is a choice I made to buy then, and I have to live with it.

While I do blame the banks for making loans that they knew people couldnt pay back, I still and will always blame the people for taking those loans in the first place. If you arent smart enough to either, understand how much you can afford, or at least smart enough to ask someone who might understand it better than you, I have zero sympathy for these people. They should pay off their debt, and if they choose not too they should never be extended credit of any kind again. Including prepaying for cell phones, electricity, etc.

I do though have sympathy for people who had a life chaning event, such as the GM worker, who thought they had a job for like, and now are out of work. Sometimes you cant foresee things happening, and that does suck. But, someone spending 80% of their takehome on a house, that is just outrageous. Just cause the bank is offering you something, doesnt mean you have to take it.

My rant is over for now........

This isn't about right or wrong. Its about KNOWING your rights and options under the law. If Nevada (which has many laws in common with the California) has the same "anti-deficiency" laws that we have in California that fact could significantly impact your options if you find yourself drowning under a home mortgage in Nevada. The law doesn't care whether you were smart or stupid when you signed that mortgage. This is about getting smart NOW and knowing your legal rights in important financial dealings.

So, basically you are saying, that is there is some 'loop hole' in the law, then you should just walk away from your mortgage? great logic, it is logic like that, that has gotten the country in this mess.

Even people that think they know something about finance are that way. Go read the finance forum here. The majority of people say "Buy index funds because the experts say you can't time the market". They don't bother to do any research for themselves.

Wow, one out of 10k, really useful email I'll be sure to read all about them.

In CA, this law to promote home ownership has been around since at least the 70's. What I'm saying is know your legal rights and options in these tough times. And if these rights help 1 extra family keep their home, AND pay a fair balance on their mortgage, IMO this is a win.

BTW, where was your "rightious indignation" when:

1) Realtors sold homes knowing they were overvalued,
2) Appraisers knew they were overvaluing homes,
3) mortgage brokers knew loan applicants were either taking mortgages they couldn't afford and/or affirmatively misrepresenting income,
4) bankers sold and packaged those loans knowing a lot of the package was toxic,
5) wall streeters sold the these toxic packages overseas to foreign pensioners, and
6) rating companies looked the other way to keep the fees coming in.

In the words of Abraham Lincoln: "There are too many piglets for the teats."

Bring to mind our health care mess? The moral and ethical strength to say no to all that easy money faltered far before some poor shlub now facing the choice of ruining his credit and walking away from his mortgage just to survive. Take your moral indignation and go find the next Madoff and mini-Madoff out there and put a stop to them. They are your real criminals.

I agree with all 6 of your points. I am not saying the banks, people writing the mortgages, rating agencies, etc are not also in the wrong. I am just saying that people walking away from their mortgage, just because their house went down is just wrong.

While everyone was preying on the innocent mortgage taker, didnt the people taking out the mortgage ever stop and think, "Maybe I shouldng buy a house with no money down with a mortgage payment that is 80% of my take home"

The homes were not overvalued though, that is the thing. People were willing to pay, and therefore they were valeud at market. I live in the NYC area, and personally I was not willing to pay what people were asking for crap homes. I looked at many many homes, until I finally found one that I felt was a reasonable deal. If I hadnt found that I had other options, called renting. And I could have kept renting in the mean time while looking for a home that was more in line with what I thought houses should be valued.

I think that is the other problem with this whole mess. Owning a home is not a right, and not everyone is meant to own a home. If you arent responsible enough or are unable to afford it, then you shouldnt be a homeowner.

Anyway, I am done with this thread. Not because I dont enjoy the discussion, but mainly because this is a Vegas board. I need to live vicariously through everyone on here. I havent been to Vegas in 6 months, and as of now have no clue when I will be able to get out there.

http://www.southwest.com/

Sick 72hr sale going on right now.

You should buy a vacation home here--I hear from very good sources the market is kinda depressed and is due to rebound huge!

haha, funny. It isnt because of the cost, it is because I have a 4 1/2 month old boy at home, makes a bit difficult to get away

Actually took a look at the MGM Signature condo's, can get a 1 bedroom for like 170k. The condo fees were just too damn high