Preflop, I'm assuming villain is 3betting 88+, AQo+, AJs, KQs.

On the flop, we k/r which tells villain we can beat that range. Villain probably puts us on 99+, A9s, some bd straight/flush bluffs, and that's it... Also I'm not sure how hero plays here since delaying until the turn is an option too. I think k/r'ing the flop immediately has its pros with this holding since we can potentially squeeze out a ton of bets (b/3b the turn potentially) and also we can polarize it with some bd straight/flush bluffs.

On the turn, villain repops us which means villain is telling us he's ahead of 99+ and A9s. This means villain probably has QQ, KK, or AA.

Once we 3b the turn, we're telling villain we're ahead of QQ, KK, and AA. This means we have practically only 99 and AA. It's hard to imagine KK or QQ taking this line anyways from villain's pov imo (esp if villain respects hero)... I'm not sure what villain is suppose to do. QQ is probably a toss if that's what villain has.

On the river, I think we have to bet/cry-call ourselves unless villain will make the mistake of value betting QQ or KK... Also we can discount 6 combos of AA to just 3 combos of AA once the river came an A.

I don't think a snug villain will value bet QQ or KK. Also how likely is it that villain thinks you overplayed QQ- here and decide to check on a safe river... If he will bet KK or QQ at near 100% freq then by all means, check/(raise or call)...

I did some stoves: I used my 5 off the button range: 66+, A6s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs, T9s vs MP's 88+, AJs+, AQo+. MP has a 2:1 equity advantage preflop which turns into a 64:36 advantage when the flop hits. QQ+, 99, and 66 are 22 combos. Out of 170 flop combos in EP's range that's just under 13% check raising frequency. Without those strong hands in our check call range, we have under 30% equity range vs range.

This is best case scenario because EP could mean 6 or 7 seats off the button, in which case our check raise range should be even more narrow.

88 is a dog.
TT has just under 51%.
JJ has 57%.

I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

Also I'd like to argue villain should just peel JJ/QQ on the turn (instead of raising) since a k/r on this flop by hero is probably polarized towards a very strong holding or a bluff that'll likely barrel the river...

yeah, good point. i don't really ever c/r flop in this spot.

I'd bet/fold

b/f

Yeah, I think prolly b/f > x/c > b/c.

At game speed I bet and hate call obv. NH AA.

Anyhow, though it was a fairly interesting spot as x/c seems really counterintuitive but prolly isn't actually all that bad.

I think you need to think about your river range and your bet folding frequency if you bet fold here. If your river betting range is 99 and AA, then you're folding 50%.

Does this imply c/raising our AA on the river being infinitely better than betting?

c/c>b/c>b/f. at game speed i don't think i'm good enough to c/c tho.

He is just never bluff raising here and never raising Ak for value.

Live villains never make exploitable folds in limit holdem so I can never bluff spots like this.

They also sometimes make inexplicable bluffs and raises so i can never b/f.

I disagree with everything everyone said.

For starters I find it hard to believe ranges are so tight. Has villain never played with you before?

Next I think you should have a x/r range on this flop, since preflop ranges are not that narrow.

Finally, x/c'ing the river is awful and b/f'ing is pretty bad too. I guess I can agree with you nit's that we can't x/r, so that leaves b/c imo.

What are you check raising on the flop? How narrow do the ranges have to be for you to have an empty check raising range on the flop?

If #1 is true, build your strategy around exploiting this by bluffing less. But realize that bluffing a nonzero % is likely still better than bluffing never, because in many scenarios, villains can't showdown 100% of the time, because their hand has no SD value.

If they sometimes can make inexplicable bluffs, build your strategy around not making too many exploutable folds, but realize never b/fing is likely bad too. Just estimate a wtf-percentage for villain's bluff frequency and adjust accordingly.

check/calling 100% of the time so that you're bluffed never is not as profitable than a mixed strategy of c/c or b/f and getting bluffed some of the time, in nearly all cases. we cant use furcoat dilemma argument to justify trying to reach sd everytime.

I'm semi-joking in that if villain does indeed have a much tighter range than us, we can delay until turn. I'm just needling OP because I find it hard to believe anyone respects his UTG raise as much as described

In general I don't think the tightness of the ranges itself dictates if/how much we want to x/r. It just becomes more attractive to humans to delay splitting their ranges as they get tighter because the less hands we hold the harder these ranges are to balance. Playing mixed strategies becomes necessary as our number of possible holdings decreases, and this is much harder to properly execute.

The real dictating factor is the asymmetry between the two ranges. The weaker our range relative to our opponent's the fewer x/r hands comprise our range, and the more x/c hands that we need to protect by x/c'ing our stronger hands as well.

@future - not sure what any of this has to do with me raising early. But even people who don't ever give me credit for having anything prolly start giving me some credit for a hand when I raise early AND x/r flop AND 1/3 turn.

I know, but then what are we really thinking about here? I just don't get the logic of assuming villain will bet all these weak hands if we check while also assuming villain has aces. Our hand is easily strong enough to value-bet and probably not strong enough to x/r, and is certainly too strong to x/c. So bet, then call because folding would be super exploitable.

Eh, I'm just not worried about getting exploited in this particular spot. There are literally 4 people I've played with lifetime who would ever consider bluff raising this river in villian's spot. And you, me, and the other two guys I know who might do it are getting snap looked up 100% of the time when we do. Basically, it's very close to impossible for anybody to successfully bluff raise this river imo.

If we assume the read that villain had JJ - AA, and will bet KK+ on river:
AA (3), KK (6), QQ (6), JJ (6)

Villain shouldn't fold more than about 2 of these 21 combos here. If he calls a bet with 4 combos of JJ and the 12 of QQ and KK, then we win 1 bet 16/21, lose 2 3/21 and win 0 2/21. So we win 10BB's/21.

If we check he bets KK+. We win 1 bet 6/21, lose 1 3/21, and win 0 12/21. So we would only win 3BB's/21.

Even if villain bets QQ+ x/c'ing only comes out to 9BB's/21, so villain would have to be both value betting too thin when checked to, and folding too much to our bets to make an exploitative x/c more profitable than betting.

I can get behind an exploitative b/f if you are confident villain can never be doing this with a worse value hand. I agree that many are incapable of bluff-raising here, but I'm always worried that he somehow lost his mind with AK or A6s or something dumb.