Winamax - €0.50 NL (5 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 105.33 BB (VPIP: 21.68, PFR: 18.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 3,533)
Hero (BB): 107.87 BB
CO: 218.93 BB (VPIP: 37.35, PFR: 16.87, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 89)
BTN: 25.17 BB (VPIP: 42.26, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 178)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 K

fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 7 Q 4
SB bets 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn: (15 BB, 2 players) 2
SB checks, Hero ?


Vilain 67Cbet flop, 51Cbet turn
I know this guy is not the type of guy to protect his checking range (76% F2Float flop, 80% F2Probe turn for example), so i'm pretty sure the guy would be really rarelly traping or probably even not often holding a Kc
What's your plan turn + river here with this hand ?

Turn info bluff against such a leak then, yeah?

Alright but size ? overbet ?
And do we continue on most rivers if he call ?

Overbetting is unneccesary and doesn't make any sense either. Why would you ever overbet Ac on this turn?

Since he's x/folding 80%, just bet a little over half pot and print money. Going by that same read, it's probably wise to give up river the few times he does call.

This,

Also, even if he is giving up a lot, this is a turn card people will check most of hteir range with anyway, so I could see a guy that only bets value still x/c here

Alright thx for answers i think i'm levelling myself too much into wanting to do big bluffs unecessarilly with hands that don't require it

On the hand i 2/3 pot and he folded though, but i've been doing some mayb questionable stuff lately, like this :

Winamax - €0.50 NL (5 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 30.61, PFR: 25.66, 3Bet Preflop: 8.79, Hands: 1,080)
BTN: 110.54 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 13.51, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
SB: 162.02 BB (VPIP: 28.78, PFR: 23.13, 3Bet Preflop: 9.05, Hands: 561)
Hero (BB): 105.54 BB
UTG: 87.96 BB (VPIP: 52.63, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 39)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J K

fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 6 A 3
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 4.9 BB, BTN calls 4.9 BB

River: (16.3 BB, 2 players) T
Hero bets 26 BB, BTN calls 26 BB

Hero shows J K (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 46%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
BTN shows A 3 (Two Pair, Aces and Threes)
(Pre 54%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
BTN wins 63.86 BB

Actually i'd like to know ur opinion on this one
First 3b > call preF i guess
Then i don't think that it's that bad tbh cauz probably i'll get enough fold especially in these stakes where people tend to overfold i guess and to not protect their checking range in those kind of spots (definitly don't expect him to check that flop LOL, but i think it happens once every 245287372838 times)
But the thing is if we're doing that with this hand we are doing that a tonnnnn right so that's an issue i guess ?

Just make new thread w/ new hand please.

most if not all K high is just a check/fold down here in terms of your range.

You better be sure what you're doing when you're messing around with zero equity bluffs, since they are (for obvious reasons) very expensive and therefore require even more pin-point reads to show profit.

As for the last hand you posted, I think your fold equity is kinda low ott after villain xb flop, which leads to a scenario where you're forced to bomb river blind a large% of the time.

Are you floating the flop in hand 1 knowing villain folds a lot ott? I mean otherwise I don't really like your call.

Am I too nitty here?

It's probably fine. People c-bet this board a lot and it is BvB, obviously much rather call with Xc7 over a strong 7, but this is still likely a defend in theory.

I thought defense flop was quite standard
Aren't we overfolding here if we don't defend hands like this ?
I arrive at around 36% defense on this flop if we call all better hands until A7o with no c and lower pairs with FD so we need to defend more right ?

Well minimum defense isn't perfect. It doesn't factor in future betting and the fact that some of villain's bluffs have equity. It also doesn't account for blockers or how villain constructs his cbetting range on monotone boards.

We also need to remember that we should only be defending the percentage of our range that has the appropriate equity to call and not the percentage of our total range.

So I guess my main concern is our raw equity vs villain's range in the event the monotone board shifts the hands villain chooses to cbet. I have no doubt that second pair with the kicker you have is an easy defend most of the time without doing any math or sims so it wouldn't take(or should I say hasn't taken) much to convince me it's an alright defend here.

Yah overfolding monotone boards quite often

Alright yea right now i'm checking a lot the mdf to check my defending range (adapting over ranges strenght thought) and i don't check that much equity vs range

One thing i'm wondering thought and that kinda prevents me to use more my equity over vilain attributed range is :
Around how many percentage of our equity can we expect to realize ?
Obv it's probably changing a ton given the situation but is it like preflop like we shouldn't consider more than like 75% of our equity that we will actually realize ? or postflop we can expect to realize more of our equity ?

I'm not quite sure what you're saying here but if it's that you don't use your equity to make your decision but only rely on MDF that is a large mistake and it should very much be the exact opposite of that.

You should never defend a bluffcatcher that doesn't have the appropriate equity to call just to fulfill mdf.

It's difficult to say how much equity you'll capture post flop. As extreme examples think of hands that have 100% show down equity (nuts with no possible redraws or ties) and those that have 0% showdown equity.

The 100% hand will capture more than just the pot because it will also capture all future bets. On the same token the 0% showdown equity hand might actually make some better hands fold meaning its value is non-zero.

I haven't seen a great way to estimate such things, but then again I haven't read all of literature out there that might contain that information (Will Tipton's books and Applications of No limit by Janda).

Yea that's basically what i am saying
Mostly because i'm really not sure how much of this equity we should expect being able to realize
I guess it's not that bad since with mdf we're taking an apropriate part of the top of our range to defend, and if our range is not too far from equaly strong as opponent's range i guess we will end up taking close to the right portion of hands that have enough equity
Obv i'm still aproximatively aware of the equity of the hands but it's just guesstimations

Yea also there's the implied or reverse implied odds so probably quite different than preflop where usually i'm going like aproximating to realize 70/75% of my equity on a normal spot

Actually i would really like to have some estimation so if someone know something about that
Even if it's vague just to have an idea if on average otf we should expect to realize more like 50/75/100% on our equity on later street (again on average on a medium normal spot, i understand that this will vary a ton depending on the spot)

Bluff turn

Honestly I tend to 3b the Kxs parts of my range BvB. As played I will be turn and still don't think you need to go 2/3 pot and think 1/2 pot will be good enough. But yes I also think no matter what his tendencies are this hand is always a bet unless he is checking his entire range on turn and checking some medium strength or even some "pot controlling" top pair hands then and only then would I tend to just see a showdown.