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200nl AQ 3bp AKQx board 200nl AQ 3bp AKQx board

11-22-2015 , 02:52 PM
Very tricky spot vs reg. Stack size is awkward. If we flat, we would have 45bb left in 112bb pot. That may discourage villain from bluffing the river.
If I were villain, I would play KQ cautiously here. It's also very bad card to keep betting flush draws on (Tc9c 8c9c 7c9c etc.). I don't really see him vbet anything worse here, except maybe KQ.
So I think we can flat here, but do we xf river then? Let's say river is 2. I really don't see him bet KQ on that river. Calling for a chop is not a great idea either. We would need very few bluff combos though.

So my conclusion is: call turn, then call river or xf? Shoving would be a mistake OTT imo.
Folding right away would seem weird, but is that an option?
To make it worse, I had some reads on villain that he plays SDV passively and doesn't bluff.

Pokerstars - €2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 46.18, PFR: 31.75, 3Bet Preflop: 9.49, Hands: 948)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.14, PFR: 16.55, 3Bet Preflop: 5.97, Hands: 139)
UTG: 101.73 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 103 BB (VPIP: 22.01, PFR: 16.74, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 1,408)
BTN: 105.92 BB (VPIP: 27.26, PFR: 20.34, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 1,254)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, CO raises to 11 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 7 BB

Flop: (24.5 BB, 2 players) A K 6
Hero checks, CO bets 11.71 BB, Hero calls 11.71 BB

Turn: (47.92 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, CO bets 32 BB, Hero ???

Last edited by Fishtankz; 11-22-2015 at 02:59 PM.
11-22-2015 , 03:28 PM
Lol, I fold turn.

His bluffing range is some suited connectors that are clubs, but I honestly doubt he even barrels those (esp for this sizing). His value range is obviously AA/KK/AK, possibly JTs, there is 0 chance he has KQ as that would check flop.

AA/KK/AK is 1 + 3 + 6 = 10 combos. Even if he is bluffing T9cc, 98cc, 87cc, 54cc, then it's still not enough to justify calling. Add in some JTs combos and it's even worse.
11-22-2015 , 03:34 PM
u fold 2p m8? u wot?

I actually ended up folding the turn, but trying to justify reasons for calling. VS good thinking villain I really think it's a fold OTT.
11-22-2015 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishtankz
u fold 2p m8? u wot?

I actually ended up folding the turn, but trying to justify reasons for calling. VS good thinking villain I really think it's a fold OTT.
It's a good fold, there are plenty of spots where overfolding is going to be good. 3bp oop on AKQ board is going to be one of them.
11-22-2015 , 10:47 PM
meh, I cc more than cf river but you can talk me into cf

      
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