What if it only falls a half of a standard deviation from the norm?

You can conclude with a high level of confidence that the game is fair.

Live play is limp call to the flop vary vary loose poker, win rates should be higher.

Selective memory. If you have a decent sized sample and you actually do the analysis, you'll be disappointed to discover that Aces show up on the board exactly as often as they should. You won't need a multi-million hand sample, either. This should converge fairly quickly.

Do the math. Don't rely on your emotions (and we're talking about tilt, here). If you find something out of the ordinary, post it.

What's more likely to happen, though, is that you'll re-evaluate how you play your big pocket pairs.

Do the math. Always do the math.

So if a site actually did rig their game in such a way that it deviated from expectations by only half a standard deviation, you would conclude with a high level of confidence that the game was fair. Correct?

Either that or it was rigged to be random. Which at the end of the day is...random.

Not necessarily, and I get what Weevil99 is getting at. With large samples of a normally distributed population, only about 34% will fall within one-half standard deviation from the population mean. 99.7% fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean. So if you start seeing a lot of large samples that are within one-half standard deviation, something is fishy. That would not be a "normal" or natural distribution, it would look artificially created, as if the rigging algorithm was overcorrecting to make things look kosher.

Put another way, there is only a 34% chance that a large sample of a normally distributed population, will fall within one-half standard deviation of the population mean. Amirite?

Good point. At the end of the day though we'd still be able to tell a random deal to one that is not with a fair amount of confidence.

Spadebidder beat me to it.

You don't do just one sample, just like your samples don't have just one hand in it. One data point is meaningless. No conclusions can be drawn from one data point, other than the stupidity of the sampler.

Oh, dude - I never said I was due to hit a flush, I said maybe, maybe not, you can never tell whether or not you should have won a particular hand. But hands with flush draws are few and far between, those that get to the river even rarer. Thus getting a large enough number of trials is very difficult.

There are other factors that differ between live and online such as tells and such so you can't compare them directly, but if a lifetime big winner live is breakeven online at smaller stakes, then something is going on.

Also, I have taken a stats class - aced it, actually.

And although I can't prove it doesn't mean I have to play - I have been cutting my hours online way back.

I think the point was, just the fact that you articulated the question that way is an error in reasoning, and it implies something about your understanding.

That's BS. I've played over 500k hands and it does not add up.

You still aren't getting it. There is no maybe or maybe not "due". You are never "due". This concept doesn't exist when dealing with individual events. You could flip a coin 10 times in a row and have it come up 10 times head. Tails is not due and never will be. The odds for the next flip are still 50/50 as long as the flip is completely random.

Great hand just now.

Flop Ace High nut flush on unpaired board. Only thing I'm thinking is how is PS going to **** me now.

Dude has K7. betting on his stupid king.

Obviously turn k river 7.

Such a surprise.

Have you done any statistical analysis on your half a million hands? If not, go do some.

So, what are the odds of the flop containing an ace K13?

At least a PT screenshot to start.

I love how you jump to the conclusion that it must be rigged, if a big winner live is only a breakeven player online. There are so many factors into how good you are, and you have just lumped them all together and labeled it the 'rigged factor.'

Seriously, get PT3 or HEM and do some actual analysis of your play. You'll realize you are not as good as you think. In fact, doing this analysis should make you realize areas in need of improvement.

this is proof of roggedness

feel free to show your work and/or let others check your database for you.
yeah, if you don't know the answer to that then your analysis isn't reliable.

This is the bs that brought me here, mind you 135 people get paid, this is what happened for me to get knocked out in 145th place....?

Stage #1602782210 Tourney ID 4299017 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 2400 - 2009-04-19 00:04:12 (ET)
Table: 135 (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
Seat 1 - CEZARIO1 (68758 in chips)
Seat 2 - NEWLIES57 (133043 in chips)
Seat 3 - LADIESMAN213 (26970 in chips)
Seat 4 - (32706 in chips)
Seat 5 - PTSHARK (33266 in chips)
Seat 6 - TALONZ (25208 in chips)
Seat 7 - KINGHAZE888 (37440 in chips)
Seat 8 - BET_THAT (26216 in chips)
Seat 9 - ALEXACEG (69414 in chips)
CEZARIO1 - Ante 200
NEWLIES57 - Ante 200
LADIESMAN213 - Ante 200
- Ante 200
PTSHARK - Ante 200
TALONZ - Ante 200
KINGHAZE888 - Ante 200
BET_THAT - Ante 200
ALEXACEG - Ante 200
KINGHAZE888 - Posts small blind 1200
BET_THAT - Posts big blind 2400
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to [Ah 9h]
ALEXACEG - Folds
CEZARIO1 - Folds
NEWLIES57 - Folds
LADIESMAN213 - Folds
- Raises 5000 to 5000
PTSHARK - Folds
TALONZ - Folds
KINGHAZE888 - Folds
BET_THAT - Calls 2600
*** FLOP *** [9s Kc 9d]
BET_THAT - All-In 21016
- Calls 21016
*** TURN *** [9s Kc 9d] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [9s Kc 9d 7s] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
- Shows [Ah 9h] (Three of a kind, nines)
BET_THAT - Shows [Ks 2s] (Flush, king high)
BET_THAT Collects 55032 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot(55032)
Board [9s Kc 9d 7s Js]
Seat 1: CEZARIO1 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: NEWLIES57 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: LADIESMAN213 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: HI:lost with Three of a kind, nines [Ah 9h - B:9s,P:9h,B:9d,P:Ah,B:Kc]
Seat 5: PTSHARK Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: TALONZ (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 7: KINGHAZE888 (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: BET_THAT (big blind) won Total (55032) All-In HI55032) with Flush, king high [Ks 2s - P:Ks,B:Js,B:9s,B:7s,P:2s]
Seat 9: ALEXACEG Folded on the POCKET CARDS



Stage #1602784127 Tourney ID 4299017 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 2400 - 2009-04-19 00:05:15 (ET)
Table: 135 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 1 - CEZARIO1 (68558 in chips)
Seat 2 - NEWLIES57 (132843 in chips)
Seat 3 - LADIESMAN213 (26770 in chips)
Seat 4 - (6490 in chips)
Seat 5 - PTSHARK (33066 in chips)
Seat 6 - TALONZ (25008 in chips)
Seat 7 - KINGHAZE888 (36040 in chips)
Seat 8 - BET_THAT (55032 in chips)
Seat 9 - ALEXACEG (69214 in chips)
CEZARIO1 - Ante 200
NEWLIES57 - Ante 200
LADIESMAN213 - Ante 200
- Ante 200
PTSHARK - Ante 200
TALONZ - Ante 200
KINGHAZE888 - Ante 200
BET_THAT - Ante 200
ALEXACEG - Ante 200
BET_THAT - Posts small blind 1200
ALEXACEG - Posts big blind 2400
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to [Qd Ah]
CEZARIO1 - Folds
NEWLIES57 - Folds
LADIESMAN213 - Fold
- All-In(Raise) 6290 to 6290
PTSHARK - Folds
TALONZ - Folds
KINGHAZE888 - Folds
BET_THAT - Folds
ALEXACEG - Calls 3890
*** FLOP *** [8s 3s 6c]
*** TURN *** [8s 3s 6c] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [8s 3s 6c Js] [Qs]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
- Shows [Qd Ah] (One pair, queens)
ALEXACEG - Shows [Jc Qc] (Two Pair, queens and jacks)
ALEXACEG Collects 15580 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot(15580)
Board [8s 3s 6c Js Qs]
Seat 1: CEZARIO1 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: NEWLIES57 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: LADIESMAN213 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: HI:lost with One pair, queens [Qd Ah - B:Qs,P:Qd,P:Ah,B:Js,B:8s]
Seat 5: PTSHARK Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: TALONZ Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 7: KINGHAZE888 (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: BET_THAT (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: ALEXACEG (big blind) won Total (15580) HI15580) with Two Pair, queens and jacks [Jc Qc - B:Qs,P:Qc,B:Js,P:Jc,B:8s]

The odds that you lost A9 to K2 and then AQ to QJ are about 1 in 8

If you want to use the odds from the flop in the K2 hand then the combined odds were about 1 in 26


You may want to consider alerting the media to your findings, or at least use better rigged theory selection and show hands (after using a converter) that even combined in terms of odds are actually worse then a standard 2 outer on a river we all see (and should happen once in a while) every day.

What next, people losing coin flips thinking it must be evil forces at work?

tk maybe you shouldn't play $1 rebuys on absolute poker then.

this is correct, but there are a lot of FYPossibilities...
such as:
or
and how about
Possibly more, but the date really struck me as odd.

Hmm, the odd thing is that it happened 10 places before the money? Runner runner flush. Then, the very next hand I lose with AQ to JQ? Nothing wrong with that...I forgot I was rigtarded for a minute...

....are the same as the odds it happens on the first two hands of the tournament.

Next!