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04-21-2009, 05:16 PM   #2626
Weevil99
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dbcooper279 1. You certainly could. In a very large sample, there is an expectation that you will hit X flushes. Should your actual results fall +/- 3 standard deviations from the expectation, you might consider an unfair game.
What if it only falls a half of a standard deviation from the norm?

04-21-2009, 05:22 PM   #2627
dbcooper279
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Weevil99 What if it only falls a half of a standard deviation from the norm?
You can conclude with a high level of confidence that the game is fair.

04-21-2009, 05:23 PM   #2628
batair
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BitterChris 1. That's right, it's one of the reasons why you'll never be able to "prove", in a traditional sense, that you're being cheated. 2. Wow, you're right again- how did you know? Continuing my line of thought, a way of showing this would to use a program like StatKing to track live and online results to the point where it is 95 or 99 percent confident your true winrate is accurate to within +/- a certain amount, and if the live and online winrates are significantly different then rigged=true
Live play is limp call to the flop vary vary loose poker, win rates should be higher.

04-21-2009, 05:26 PM   #2629
Weevil99
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by K13 The most annoying ****en thing is the Ace happy boards on PS. There's no way an ACE can come that ****en often. Every ****en Ace rag is atleast 50% against high PP.
Selective memory. If you have a decent sized sample and you actually do the analysis, you'll be disappointed to discover that Aces show up on the board exactly as often as they should. You won't need a multi-million hand sample, either. This should converge fairly quickly.

Do the math. Don't rely on your emotions (and we're talking about tilt, here). If you find something out of the ordinary, post it.

What's more likely to happen, though, is that you'll re-evaluate how you play your big pocket pairs.

Do the math. Always do the math.

04-21-2009, 05:30 PM   #2630
Weevil99
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dbcooper279 You can conclude with a high level of confidence that the game is fair.
So if a site actually did rig their game in such a way that it deviated from expectations by only half a standard deviation, you would conclude with a high level of confidence that the game was fair. Correct?

04-21-2009, 05:50 PM   #2631
KingOfFelt
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Weevil99 So if a site actually did rig their game in such a way that it deviated from expectations by only half a standard deviation, you would conclude with a high level of confidence that the game was fair. Correct?
Either that or it was rigged to be random. Which at the end of the day is...random.

04-21-2009, 05:53 PM   #2632
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weevil99
What if it only falls a half of a standard deviation from the norm?
Quote:
 Originally Posted by dbcooper279 You can conclude with a high level of confidence that the game is fair.
Not necessarily, and I get what Weevil99 is getting at. With large samples of a normally distributed population, only about 34% will fall within one-half standard deviation from the population mean. 99.7% fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean. So if you start seeing a lot of large samples that are within one-half standard deviation, something is fishy. That would not be a "normal" or natural distribution, it would look artificially created, as if the rigging algorithm was overcorrecting to make things look kosher.

Put another way, there is only a 34% chance that a large sample of a normally distributed population, will fall within one-half standard deviation of the population mean. Amirite?

Last edited by spadebidder; 04-21-2009 at 05:58 PM. Reason: clarity

04-21-2009, 05:56 PM   #2633
KingOfFelt
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by spadebidder Up to a point, and I get what Weevil99 is getting at. With large samples, only about 34% will fall within one-half standard deviation from the population mean. 99.7% fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean. So if you start seeing a lot of large samples that are within one-half standard deviation, something is fishy. That would not be a "normal" or natural distribution, it would look artificially created, as if the rigging algorithm was overcorrecting to make things look kosher.
Good point. At the end of the day though we'd still be able to tell a random deal to one that is not with a fair amount of confidence.

04-21-2009, 06:05 PM   #2634
dbcooper279
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Weevil99 So if a site actually did rig their game in such a way that it deviated from expectations by only half a standard deviation, you would conclude with a high level of confidence that the game was fair. Correct?
Quote:
 Originally Posted by spadebidder Not necessarily, and I get what Weevil99 is getting at. With large samples of a normally distributed population, only about 34% will fall within one-half standard deviation from the population mean. 99.7% fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean. So if you start seeing a lot of large samples that are within one-half standard deviation, something is fishy. That would not be a "normal" or natural distribution, it would look artificially created, as if the rigging algorithm was overcorrecting to make things look kosher. Put another way, there is only a 34% chance that a large sample of a normally distributed population, will fall within one-half standard deviation of the population mean. Amirite?

You don't do just one sample, just like your samples don't have just one hand in it. One data point is meaningless. No conclusions can be drawn from one data point, other than the stupidity of the sampler.

04-21-2009, 06:12 PM   #2635
BitterChris

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Quote:
 Originally Posted by dbcooper279 1. You certainly could. In a very large sample, there is an expectation that you will hit X flushes. Should your actual results fall +/- 3 standard deviations from the expectation, you might consider an unfair game. 2. Just because you make \$x/hr live doesn't mean that if you don't make \$x/hr online that online is rigged. Chris, take a stats class. Your inability from grasping such simple concepts is making you look like a ******. FWIW, if you truly believe online poker is rigged, why in the hell would you play, and then complain about it?
Oh, dude - I never said I was due to hit a flush, I said maybe, maybe not, you can never tell whether or not you should have won a particular hand. But hands with flush draws are few and far between, those that get to the river even rarer. Thus getting a large enough number of trials is very difficult.

There are other factors that differ between live and online such as tells and such so you can't compare them directly, but if a lifetime big winner live is breakeven online at smaller stakes, then something is going on.

Also, I have taken a stats class - aced it, actually.

And although I can't prove it doesn't mean I have to play - I have been cutting my hours online way back.

04-21-2009, 06:17 PM   #2636
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BitterChris Oh, dude - I never said I was due to hit a flush, I said maybe, maybe not.
I think the point was, just the fact that you articulated the question that way is an error in reasoning, and it implies something about your understanding.

04-21-2009, 06:27 PM   #2637
K13
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Weevil99 Selective memory. If you have a decent sized sample and you actually do the analysis, you'll be disappointed to discover that Aces show up on the board exactly as often as they should. You won't need a multi-million hand sample, either. This should converge fairly quickly. Do the math. Don't rely on your emotions (and we're talking about tilt, here). If you find something out of the ordinary, post it. What's more likely to happen, though, is that you'll re-evaluate how you play your big pocket pairs. Do the math. Always do the math.
That's BS. I've played over 500k hands and it does not add up.

04-21-2009, 06:30 PM   #2638
KingOfFelt
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BitterChris Oh, dude - I never said I was due to hit a flush, I said maybe, maybe not, you can never tell whether or not you should have won a particular hand. But hands with flush draws are few and far between, those that get to the river even rarer. Thus getting a large enough number of trials is very difficult. There are other factors that differ between live and online such as tells and such so you can't compare them directly, but if a lifetime big winner live is breakeven online at smaller stakes, then something is going on. Also, I have taken a stats class - aced it, actually. And although I can't prove it doesn't mean I have to play - I have been cutting my hours online way back.
You still aren't getting it. There is no maybe or maybe not "due". You are never "due". This concept doesn't exist when dealing with individual events. You could flip a coin 10 times in a row and have it come up 10 times head. Tails is not due and never will be. The odds for the next flip are still 50/50 as long as the flip is completely random.

 04-21-2009, 06:31 PM #2639 K13 banned     Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Canada Posts: 531 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition Great hand just now. Flop Ace High nut flush on unpaired board. Only thing I'm thinking is how is PS going to **** me now. Dude has K7. betting on his stupid king. Obviously turn k river 7. Such a surprise.
04-21-2009, 06:37 PM   #2640
dbcooper279
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by K13 That's BS. I've played over 500k hands and it does not add up.
Have you done any statistical analysis on your half a million hands? If not, go do some.

So, what are the odds of the flop containing an ace K13?

 04-21-2009, 06:40 PM #2641 DMoogle Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Northern VA, USA Posts: 7,132 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition At least a PT screenshot to start.
04-21-2009, 06:43 PM   #2642
dbcooper279
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BitterChris There are other factors that differ between live and online such as tells and such so you can't compare them directly, but if a lifetime big winner live is breakeven online at smaller stakes, then something is going on.
I love how you jump to the conclusion that it must be rigged, if a big winner live is only a breakeven player online. There are so many factors into how good you are, and you have just lumped them all together and labeled it the 'rigged factor.'

Seriously, get PT3 or HEM and do some actual analysis of your play. You'll realize you are not as good as you think. In fact, doing this analysis should make you realize areas in need of improvement.

Last edited by dbcooper279; 04-21-2009 at 06:58 PM.

04-21-2009, 06:57 PM   #2643
tiltymcfish0
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by K13 Great hand just now. Flop Ace High nut flush on unpaired board. Only thing I'm thinking is how is PS going to **** me now. Dude has K7. betting on his stupid king. Obviously turn k river 7. Such a surprise.
this is proof of roggedness

04-21-2009, 07:11 PM   #2644
Markusgc
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by K13 That's BS. I've played over 500k hands and it does not add up.
feel free to show your work and/or let others check your database for you.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by dbcooper279 So, what are the odds of the flop containing an ace K13?
yeah, if you don't know the answer to that then your analysis isn't reliable.

 04-21-2009, 08:13 PM #2645 tk1133 veteran     Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Making friends one post @ a time Posts: 2,221 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition This is the bs that brought me here, mind you 135 people get paid, this is what happened for me to get knocked out in 145th place....? Stage #1602782210 Tourney ID 4299017 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 2400 - 2009-04-19 00:04:12 (ET) Table: 135 (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer Seat 1 - CEZARIO1 (68758 in chips) Seat 2 - NEWLIES57 (133043 in chips) Seat 3 - LADIESMAN213 (26970 in chips) Seat 4 - (32706 in chips) Seat 5 - PTSHARK (33266 in chips) Seat 6 - TALONZ (25208 in chips) Seat 7 - KINGHAZE888 (37440 in chips) Seat 8 - BET_THAT (26216 in chips) Seat 9 - ALEXACEG (69414 in chips) CEZARIO1 - Ante 200 NEWLIES57 - Ante 200 LADIESMAN213 - Ante 200 - Ante 200 PTSHARK - Ante 200 TALONZ - Ante 200 KINGHAZE888 - Ante 200 BET_THAT - Ante 200 ALEXACEG - Ante 200 KINGHAZE888 - Posts small blind 1200 BET_THAT - Posts big blind 2400 *** POCKET CARDS *** Dealt to [Ah 9h] ALEXACEG - Folds CEZARIO1 - Folds NEWLIES57 - Folds LADIESMAN213 - Folds - Raises 5000 to 5000 PTSHARK - Folds TALONZ - Folds KINGHAZE888 - Folds BET_THAT - Calls 2600 *** FLOP *** [9s Kc 9d] BET_THAT - All-In 21016 - Calls 21016 *** TURN *** [9s Kc 9d] [7s] *** RIVER *** [9s Kc 9d 7s] [Js] *** SHOW DOWN *** - Shows [Ah 9h] (Three of a kind, nines) BET_THAT - Shows [Ks 2s] (Flush, king high) BET_THAT Collects 55032 from main pot *** SUMMARY *** Total Pot(55032) Board [9s Kc 9d 7s Js] Seat 1: CEZARIO1 Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 2: NEWLIES57 Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 3: LADIESMAN213 Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 4: HI:lost with Three of a kind, nines [Ah 9h - B:9s,P:9h,B:9d,P:Ah,B:Kc] Seat 5: PTSHARK Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 6: TALONZ (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 7: KINGHAZE888 (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 8: BET_THAT (big blind) won Total (55032) All-In HI55032) with Flush, king high [Ks 2s - P:Ks,B:Js,B:9s,B:7s,P:2s] Seat 9: ALEXACEG Folded on the POCKET CARDS Stage #1602784127 Tourney ID 4299017 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 2400 - 2009-04-19 00:05:15 (ET) Table: 135 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer Seat 1 - CEZARIO1 (68558 in chips) Seat 2 - NEWLIES57 (132843 in chips) Seat 3 - LADIESMAN213 (26770 in chips) Seat 4 - (6490 in chips) Seat 5 - PTSHARK (33066 in chips) Seat 6 - TALONZ (25008 in chips) Seat 7 - KINGHAZE888 (36040 in chips) Seat 8 - BET_THAT (55032 in chips) Seat 9 - ALEXACEG (69214 in chips) CEZARIO1 - Ante 200 NEWLIES57 - Ante 200 LADIESMAN213 - Ante 200 - Ante 200 PTSHARK - Ante 200 TALONZ - Ante 200 KINGHAZE888 - Ante 200 BET_THAT - Ante 200 ALEXACEG - Ante 200 BET_THAT - Posts small blind 1200 ALEXACEG - Posts big blind 2400 *** POCKET CARDS *** Dealt to [Qd Ah] CEZARIO1 - Folds NEWLIES57 - Folds LADIESMAN213 - Fold - All-In(Raise) 6290 to 6290 PTSHARK - Folds TALONZ - Folds KINGHAZE888 - Folds BET_THAT - Folds ALEXACEG - Calls 3890 *** FLOP *** [8s 3s 6c] *** TURN *** [8s 3s 6c] [Js] *** RIVER *** [8s 3s 6c Js] [Qs] *** SHOW DOWN *** - Shows [Qd Ah] (One pair, queens) ALEXACEG - Shows [Jc Qc] (Two Pair, queens and jacks) ALEXACEG Collects 15580 from main pot *** SUMMARY *** Total Pot(15580) Board [8s 3s 6c Js Qs] Seat 1: CEZARIO1 Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 2: NEWLIES57 Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 3: LADIESMAN213 Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 4: HI:lost with One pair, queens [Qd Ah - B:Qs,P:Qd,P:Ah,B:Js,B:8s] Seat 5: PTSHARK Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 6: TALONZ Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 7: KINGHAZE888 (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 8: BET_THAT (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS Seat 9: ALEXACEG (big blind) won Total (15580) HI15580) with Two Pair, queens and jacks [Jc Qc - B:Qs,P:Qc,B:Js,P:Jc,B:8s]
04-21-2009, 08:52 PM   #2646
Monteroy
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tk1133 This is the bs that brought me here, mind you 135 people get paid, this is what happened for me to get knocked out in 145th place....?
The odds that you lost A9 to K2 and then AQ to QJ are about 1 in 8

If you want to use the odds from the flop in the K2 hand then the combined odds were about 1 in 26

You may want to consider alerting the media to your findings, or at least use better rigged theory selection and show hands (after using a converter) that even combined in terms of odds are actually worse then a standard 2 outer on a river we all see (and should happen once in a while) every day.

What next, people losing coin flips thinking it must be evil forces at work?

 04-21-2009, 09:01 PM #2647 Ice_W0lf Tremendous     Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: I want to go to there.. Posts: 13,533 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition tk maybe you shouldn't play \$1 rebuys on absolute poker then.
04-21-2009, 09:40 PM   #2648
Markusgc
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tk1133 This is the bs that brought me here, mind you 135 people get paid, this is what happened for me to get knocked out in 145th place....? Stage #1602782210 Tourney ID 4299017 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 2400 - 2009-04-19 00:04:12 (ET)
this is correct, but there are a lot of FYPossibilities...
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ice_W0lf tk maybe you shouldn't play \$1 rebuys on absolute poker then.
such as:
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ice_W0lf tk maybe you shouldn't play \$1 rebuys
or
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ice_W0lf tk maybe you shouldn't play on absolute poker then.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ice_W0lf tk, wtf were you doing playin a \$1 rebuy online then?
Possibly more, but the date really struck me as odd.

 04-21-2009, 09:44 PM #2649 tk1133 veteran     Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Making friends one post @ a time Posts: 2,221 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition Hmm, the odd thing is that it happened 10 places before the money? Runner runner flush. Then, the very next hand I lose with AQ to JQ? Nothing wrong with that...I forgot I was rigtarded for a minute...
04-21-2009, 09:46 PM   #2650
dbcooper279
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tk1133 Hmm, the odd thing is that it happened 10 places before the money....
....are the same as the odds it happens on the first two hands of the tournament.

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