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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,444 34.94%
No 5,522 56.02%
Undecided 892 9.05%
Voters: 9858. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-21-2009, 05:16 PM   #2626
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by dbcooper279 View Post
1. You certainly could. In a very large sample, there is an expectation that you will hit X flushes. Should your actual results fall +/- 3 standard deviations from the expectation, you might consider an unfair game.
What if it only falls a half of a standard deviation from the norm?
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Old 04-21-2009, 05:22 PM   #2627
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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What if it only falls a half of a standard deviation from the norm?
You can conclude with a high level of confidence that the game is fair.
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Old 04-21-2009, 05:23 PM   #2628
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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1. That's right, it's one of the reasons why you'll never be able to "prove", in a traditional sense, that you're being cheated.

2. Wow, you're right again- how did you know? Continuing my line of thought, a way of showing this would to use a program like StatKing to track live and online results to the point where it is 95 or 99 percent confident your true winrate is accurate to within +/- a certain amount, and if the live and online winrates are significantly different then rigged=true
Live play is limp call to the flop vary vary loose poker, win rates should be higher.
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Old 04-21-2009, 05:26 PM   #2629
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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The most annoying ****en thing is the Ace happy boards on PS.

There's no way an ACE can come that ****en often. Every ****en Ace rag is atleast 50% against high PP.
Selective memory. If you have a decent sized sample and you actually do the analysis, you'll be disappointed to discover that Aces show up on the board exactly as often as they should. You won't need a multi-million hand sample, either. This should converge fairly quickly.

Do the math. Don't rely on your emotions (and we're talking about tilt, here). If you find something out of the ordinary, post it.

What's more likely to happen, though, is that you'll re-evaluate how you play your big pocket pairs.

Do the math. Always do the math.
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Old 04-21-2009, 05:30 PM   #2630
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by dbcooper279 View Post
You can conclude with a high level of confidence that the game is fair.
So if a site actually did rig their game in such a way that it deviated from expectations by only half a standard deviation, you would conclude with a high level of confidence that the game was fair. Correct?
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Old 04-21-2009, 05:50 PM   #2631
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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So if a site actually did rig their game in such a way that it deviated from expectations by only half a standard deviation, you would conclude with a high level of confidence that the game was fair. Correct?
Either that or it was rigged to be random. Which at the end of the day is...random.
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Old 04-21-2009, 05:53 PM   #2632
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weevil99
What if it only falls a half of a standard deviation from the norm?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbcooper279 View Post
You can conclude with a high level of confidence that the game is fair.
Not necessarily, and I get what Weevil99 is getting at. With large samples of a normally distributed population, only about 34% will fall within one-half standard deviation from the population mean. 99.7% fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean. So if you start seeing a lot of large samples that are within one-half standard deviation, something is fishy. That would not be a "normal" or natural distribution, it would look artificially created, as if the rigging algorithm was overcorrecting to make things look kosher.

Put another way, there is only a 34% chance that a large sample of a normally distributed population, will fall within one-half standard deviation of the population mean. Amirite?

Last edited by spadebidder; 04-21-2009 at 05:58 PM. Reason: clarity
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Old 04-21-2009, 05:56 PM   #2633
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Up to a point, and I get what Weevil99 is getting at. With large samples, only about 34% will fall within one-half standard deviation from the population mean. 99.7% fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean. So if you start seeing a lot of large samples that are within one-half standard deviation, something is fishy. That would not be a "normal" or natural distribution, it would look artificially created, as if the rigging algorithm was overcorrecting to make things look kosher.
Good point. At the end of the day though we'd still be able to tell a random deal to one that is not with a fair amount of confidence.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:05 PM   #2634
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Weevil99 View Post
So if a site actually did rig their game in such a way that it deviated from expectations by only half a standard deviation, you would conclude with a high level of confidence that the game was fair. Correct?
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Not necessarily, and I get what Weevil99 is getting at. With large samples of a normally distributed population, only about 34% will fall within one-half standard deviation from the population mean. 99.7% fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean. So if you start seeing a lot of large samples that are within one-half standard deviation, something is fishy. That would not be a "normal" or natural distribution, it would look artificially created, as if the rigging algorithm was overcorrecting to make things look kosher.

Put another way, there is only a 34% chance that a large sample of a normally distributed population, will fall within one-half standard deviation of the population mean. Amirite?
Spadebidder beat me to it.

You don't do just one sample, just like your samples don't have just one hand in it. One data point is meaningless. No conclusions can be drawn from one data point, other than the stupidity of the sampler.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:12 PM   #2635
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Originally Posted by dbcooper279 View Post
1. You certainly could. In a very large sample, there is an expectation that you will hit X flushes. Should your actual results fall +/- 3 standard deviations from the expectation, you might consider an unfair game.

2. Just because you make $x/hr live doesn't mean that if you don't make $x/hr online that online is rigged.

Chris, take a stats class. Your inability from grasping such simple concepts is making you look like a ******.

FWIW, if you truly believe online poker is rigged, why in the hell would you play, and then complain about it?
Oh, dude - I never said I was due to hit a flush, I said maybe, maybe not, you can never tell whether or not you should have won a particular hand. But hands with flush draws are few and far between, those that get to the river even rarer. Thus getting a large enough number of trials is very difficult.

There are other factors that differ between live and online such as tells and such so you can't compare them directly, but if a lifetime big winner live is breakeven online at smaller stakes, then something is going on.

Also, I have taken a stats class - aced it, actually.

And although I can't prove it doesn't mean I have to play - I have been cutting my hours online way back.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:17 PM   #2636
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Oh, dude - I never said I was due to hit a flush, I said maybe, maybe not.
I think the point was, just the fact that you articulated the question that way is an error in reasoning, and it implies something about your understanding.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:27 PM   #2637
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weevil99 View Post
Selective memory. If you have a decent sized sample and you actually do the analysis, you'll be disappointed to discover that Aces show up on the board exactly as often as they should. You won't need a multi-million hand sample, either. This should converge fairly quickly.

Do the math. Don't rely on your emotions (and we're talking about tilt, here). If you find something out of the ordinary, post it.

What's more likely to happen, though, is that you'll re-evaluate how you play your big pocket pairs.

Do the math. Always do the math.
That's BS. I've played over 500k hands and it does not add up.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:30 PM   #2638
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Oh, dude - I never said I was due to hit a flush, I said maybe, maybe not, you can never tell whether or not you should have won a particular hand. But hands with flush draws are few and far between, those that get to the river even rarer. Thus getting a large enough number of trials is very difficult.

There are other factors that differ between live and online such as tells and such so you can't compare them directly, but if a lifetime big winner live is breakeven online at smaller stakes, then something is going on.

Also, I have taken a stats class - aced it, actually.

And although I can't prove it doesn't mean I have to play - I have been cutting my hours online way back.
You still aren't getting it. There is no maybe or maybe not "due". You are never "due". This concept doesn't exist when dealing with individual events. You could flip a coin 10 times in a row and have it come up 10 times head. Tails is not due and never will be. The odds for the next flip are still 50/50 as long as the flip is completely random.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:31 PM   #2639
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Great hand just now.

Flop Ace High nut flush on unpaired board. Only thing I'm thinking is how is PS going to **** me now.

Dude has K7. betting on his stupid king.

Obviously turn k river 7.

Such a surprise.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:37 PM   #2640
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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That's BS. I've played over 500k hands and it does not add up.
Have you done any statistical analysis on your half a million hands? If not, go do some.

So, what are the odds of the flop containing an ace K13?
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:40 PM   #2641
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

At least a PT screenshot to start.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:43 PM   #2642
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by BitterChris View Post
There are other factors that differ between live and online such as tells and such so you can't compare them directly, but if a lifetime big winner live is breakeven online at smaller stakes, then something is going on.
I love how you jump to the conclusion that it must be rigged, if a big winner live is only a breakeven player online. There are so many factors into how good you are, and you have just lumped them all together and labeled it the 'rigged factor.'

Seriously, get PT3 or HEM and do some actual analysis of your play. You'll realize you are not as good as you think. In fact, doing this analysis should make you realize areas in need of improvement.

Last edited by dbcooper279; 04-21-2009 at 06:58 PM.
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Old 04-21-2009, 06:57 PM   #2643
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by K13 View Post
Great hand just now.

Flop Ace High nut flush on unpaired board. Only thing I'm thinking is how is PS going to **** me now.

Dude has K7. betting on his stupid king.

Obviously turn k river 7.

Such a surprise.
this is proof of roggedness
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Old 04-21-2009, 07:11 PM   #2644
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by K13 View Post
That's BS. I've played over 500k hands and it does not add up.
feel free to show your work and/or let others check your database for you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbcooper279 View Post
So, what are the odds of the flop containing an ace K13?
yeah, if you don't know the answer to that then your analysis isn't reliable.
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Old 04-21-2009, 08:13 PM   #2645
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

This is the bs that brought me here, mind you 135 people get paid, this is what happened for me to get knocked out in 145th place....?

Stage #1602782210 Tourney ID 4299017 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 2400 - 2009-04-19 00:04:12 (ET)
Table: 135 (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
Seat 1 - CEZARIO1 (68758 in chips)
Seat 2 - NEWLIES57 (133043 in chips)
Seat 3 - LADIESMAN213 (26970 in chips)
Seat 4 - (32706 in chips)
Seat 5 - PTSHARK (33266 in chips)
Seat 6 - TALONZ (25208 in chips)
Seat 7 - KINGHAZE888 (37440 in chips)
Seat 8 - BET_THAT (26216 in chips)
Seat 9 - ALEXACEG (69414 in chips)
CEZARIO1 - Ante 200
NEWLIES57 - Ante 200
LADIESMAN213 - Ante 200
- Ante 200
PTSHARK - Ante 200
TALONZ - Ante 200
KINGHAZE888 - Ante 200
BET_THAT - Ante 200
ALEXACEG - Ante 200
KINGHAZE888 - Posts small blind 1200
BET_THAT - Posts big blind 2400
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to [Ah 9h]
ALEXACEG - Folds
CEZARIO1 - Folds
NEWLIES57 - Folds
LADIESMAN213 - Folds
- Raises 5000 to 5000
PTSHARK - Folds
TALONZ - Folds
KINGHAZE888 - Folds
BET_THAT - Calls 2600
*** FLOP *** [9s Kc 9d]
BET_THAT - All-In 21016
- Calls 21016
*** TURN *** [9s Kc 9d] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [9s Kc 9d 7s] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
- Shows [Ah 9h] (Three of a kind, nines)
BET_THAT - Shows [Ks 2s] (Flush, king high)
BET_THAT Collects 55032 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot(55032)
Board [9s Kc 9d 7s Js]
Seat 1: CEZARIO1 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: NEWLIES57 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: LADIESMAN213 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: HI:lost with Three of a kind, nines [Ah 9h - B:9s,P:9h,B:9d,P:Ah,B:Kc]
Seat 5: PTSHARK Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: TALONZ (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 7: KINGHAZE888 (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: BET_THAT (big blind) won Total (55032) All-In HI55032) with Flush, king high [Ks 2s - P:Ks,B:Js,B:9s,B:7s,P:2s]
Seat 9: ALEXACEG Folded on the POCKET CARDS



Stage #1602784127 Tourney ID 4299017 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 2400 - 2009-04-19 00:05:15 (ET)
Table: 135 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 1 - CEZARIO1 (68558 in chips)
Seat 2 - NEWLIES57 (132843 in chips)
Seat 3 - LADIESMAN213 (26770 in chips)
Seat 4 - (6490 in chips)
Seat 5 - PTSHARK (33066 in chips)
Seat 6 - TALONZ (25008 in chips)
Seat 7 - KINGHAZE888 (36040 in chips)
Seat 8 - BET_THAT (55032 in chips)
Seat 9 - ALEXACEG (69214 in chips)
CEZARIO1 - Ante 200
NEWLIES57 - Ante 200
LADIESMAN213 - Ante 200
- Ante 200
PTSHARK - Ante 200
TALONZ - Ante 200
KINGHAZE888 - Ante 200
BET_THAT - Ante 200
ALEXACEG - Ante 200
BET_THAT - Posts small blind 1200
ALEXACEG - Posts big blind 2400
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to [Qd Ah]
CEZARIO1 - Folds
NEWLIES57 - Folds
LADIESMAN213 - Fold
- All-In(Raise) 6290 to 6290
PTSHARK - Folds
TALONZ - Folds
KINGHAZE888 - Folds
BET_THAT - Folds
ALEXACEG - Calls 3890
*** FLOP *** [8s 3s 6c]
*** TURN *** [8s 3s 6c] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [8s 3s 6c Js] [Qs]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
- Shows [Qd Ah] (One pair, queens)
ALEXACEG - Shows [Jc Qc] (Two Pair, queens and jacks)
ALEXACEG Collects 15580 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot(15580)
Board [8s 3s 6c Js Qs]
Seat 1: CEZARIO1 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: NEWLIES57 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: LADIESMAN213 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: HI:lost with One pair, queens [Qd Ah - B:Qs,P:Qd,P:Ah,B:Js,B:8s]
Seat 5: PTSHARK Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: TALONZ Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 7: KINGHAZE888 (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: BET_THAT (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: ALEXACEG (big blind) won Total (15580) HI15580) with Two Pair, queens and jacks [Jc Qc - B:Qs,P:Qc,B:Js,P:Jc,B:8s]
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Old 04-21-2009, 08:52 PM   #2646
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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This is the bs that brought me here, mind you 135 people get paid, this is what happened for me to get knocked out in 145th place....?
The odds that you lost A9 to K2 and then AQ to QJ are about 1 in 8

If you want to use the odds from the flop in the K2 hand then the combined odds were about 1 in 26


You may want to consider alerting the media to your findings, or at least use better rigged theory selection and show hands (after using a converter) that even combined in terms of odds are actually worse then a standard 2 outer on a river we all see (and should happen once in a while) every day.

What next, people losing coin flips thinking it must be evil forces at work?
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Old 04-21-2009, 09:01 PM   #2647
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

tk maybe you shouldn't play $1 rebuys on absolute poker then.
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Old 04-21-2009, 09:40 PM   #2648
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by tk1133 View Post
This is the bs that brought me here, mind you 135 people get paid, this is what happened for me to get knocked out in 145th place....?

Stage #1602782210 Tourney ID 4299017 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 2400 - 2009-04-19 00:04:12 (ET)
this is correct, but there are a lot of FYPossibilities...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_W0lf View Post
tk maybe you shouldn't play $1 rebuys on absolute poker then.
such as:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_W0lf View Post
tk maybe you shouldn't play $1 rebuys
or
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_W0lf View Post
tk maybe you shouldn't play on absolute poker then.
and how about
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tk, wtf were you doing playin a $1 rebuy online then?
Possibly more, but the date really struck me as odd.
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Old 04-21-2009, 09:44 PM   #2649
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Hmm, the odd thing is that it happened 10 places before the money? Runner runner flush. Then, the very next hand I lose with AQ to JQ? Nothing wrong with that...I forgot I was rigtarded for a minute...
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Old 04-21-2009, 09:46 PM   #2650
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Hmm, the odd thing is that it happened 10 places before the money....
....are the same as the odds it happens on the first two hands of the tournament.

Next!
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