I love hands like that :P

With all due respect that last hand u played was horrible. I'm glad you hit, but it seems your frustration is affecting your gameplay. You are chasing hoping to hit big. Its good when it works but the other 80% of the time you are killing your winrate. Even getting 5.5:1 u still don't have odds to call for gutshot. I'm just saying is this what we have come to? Calling 15BB with suited one gapper, then chasing gutshots? U play better than this man. Making plays Like this is fishy as hell. Kinda disappointed in you man

its a 45 bb pot and guy bet 11 bb, here is getting pot odds of 11/67 = 16.4% and its likely the fish calls too so 11/78 = 14%

His implied odds do more than make up for the slack

Calling the 12bb raise preflop is more debatable

I would normally fold here, but because of the type of players involved I felt the potential reward justified the risk. I mentioned that the BTN was a calling station so if I hit my hand hard I'll most likely get paid off. SB could be squeezing pretty wide, but I have position on SB with a pretty disguised hand that's easy to play and the implied odds were there too if SB was strong. Obviously the flop doesn't help too much, but SB made a HUGE mistake with bet sizing. Pot was ~45 and SB bet out ~11 dollars if I remember correctly, wasn't anywhere close to fold out any hand with any decent equity. I have immediate 5.5 to 1 pot odds with another 70+bb in implied odds, not to mention a calling station BTN that's calling pretty wide too. You are right that calling with a gut shot is -EV and not my standard play usually, but with both of the villains making egregious mistakes allowing this to happen with their terrible bet sizing and general lack of aggression, I made the least amount of mistakes. Obviously, if any of the villains played their hand marginally well, I would've folded.

If button is calling station it's LESS likely he will pay of your hand. He has a wide range so it's hard for him to have a hand that's going to stack off. Nits on the other hand have narrow ranges. So when you hit its likely he also has a big hand

Its same reason we don't set mine vs a 45/24 But we do vs a 15/10.

Also if the squeezer just sits down, and raises your 3BB open to 15x, why would you think his range is wide?

Actually his range is pretty narrow.

I think you are thinking backwards. Implied odds come from playing vs narrow ranges that will have trouble folding. Not huge ranges with tons of air. We don't need implied odds for a wide range bc we are already ahead

Calling flop bet isn't really debatable imo.

How? U have a gutshot and only 15% pot odds. The only card that saves you is a J. Are you calling another street as well?

Um what? I don't think you fully understand what a calling station is. A call station will call a cbet with ANY piece of the board. Hence if you have the nuts you want a calling station with you in the hand as they will call if they have a decent piece not thinking of hands that have them crushed.

As for your other point, I always set mine against 45/24 type players because they are more likely to have hands ie. tpgk, two pair, draws etc. to stack off with when I do have a set vs a 15/10 type player. I'm pretty sure a lot of players will agree with that assessment.

Calling stations have wide ranges pre flop. There for even though they call with any piece it's harder for then 2 have an actual piece since their range is wide to begin with. Where as a nit has a narrow range that is already strong, therefore when you hit your chances are greater he has a hand He can stack of with, since he is strong to begin with

And 45/24 rarely has a strong hand, so we don't purely set mine. You set mine vs strong ranges, not weak. A nit is much more likely to have TP+, where as the loose passive fish usually hits medium strength hands.

Say you have 88, now list flops where you flop a set, ex A87 j84.... Now put in a 25% opening range vs a 15%. Tell me whose range is going hit these random flops harder? Who is going to be able to stack off more? Yea the 45/24 still stack of with any top pair, but top pair is such a small percentage of his range, whereas the nit will usually have TP, over pair.

Also it should be clear u don't have to set mine vs a 45/24 bc your PP is already ahead. 88 on 7A4 vs a 45/24 Open. U are good a sh*t ton. I'm not concerned about him having an Ace , bc his range is wide. I was ahead pre and usually ahead now. Now same flop vs a nit. We are proceeding cautiously bc he had Ax and PP ahead of ours. We were flipping vs his opening range pre, now we are behind allot.

So if I'm already ahead, I don't need implied odds hands, I need then vs the nit who range is ahead of mine to start. Three is a difference in playing a hand bc we are ahead and bc of purely implied odds. If you are set mining (implied odds) vs 45/24 u are doing it wrong, since you were ahead to start, you should be playing for value, depending on his tendencies and board texture

I don't know about the turn, I play poker one street at a time. It's a call because our implied odds are quite good and our pot odds are extremely good. If you don't think we can get another $20 out of the pot (which would yield a generous profit) then go ahead and fold, but I think it's a no-brainer that we can.

Yeah, the flop call seems pretty standard to me. ~10:1 to hit our J. Already getting 5.5:1 and w/ the fish in the hand. Seems on average we are gonna get paid enough to justify the call. I don't like the fact that we have reverse implied odds from KT. But w/ the fish's wide range and the betting sequence of the SB I think we are ok often enough.

Calling the 3bet pre for that price seems a pretty clear mistake.

There is no way you play one street at a time and made it this far. U have to consider future actions.

We need 11:1 to break even.Our implied odds are only great if we are guaranteed to stack both villains. If we only stack one we pretty much break even (which has same EV as a fold without the variance). U can't assume BTN always stacks here, which you are if you think our implied odds are great. Also you have to consider the fact that if u miss you will likely be priced out OTT since effective stacks are only 100BB.

Edit: Idk where got $20 to break even from. Its $50. (11*4.5).

I'm not slamming anyone for calling flop, since as I said you are at least breaking even. So whatever. But my original message was for OP.

I feel Stuntman has been getting frustrated and is chasing hands. Pretty much everyone agree the call pre flop was a bad play. I just don't want to see him chasing wins, when he is good enough to grind it out. That's why I had to post on this hand, bc even though it worked out, I don't want him falling into bad habits/chasing

U got this Stuntman, don't let the break even stretch get to u

GL

lets say we have 4 outs, or have 8.5% of winning

we're call $11 to win $78

91.5% of the time we lose the $11 we're calling with and 8.5% of the time we're winning the $78 pot

11*0.915 = ~10
78*0.085 = ~6 or something

We really don't need to make much money to yield a profit.

Becomes pretty obvious when you think about it, if villain had bet and our pot odds were 8.5% it would be a call right? And we're at 15% or something? Pretty obvious we don't need to make much compared to the original bet to make a profit.

Also, deciding what to do on the turn without knowing the turn action or card is a mistake.

I couldn't disagree more. Someone that is 15/10 is a lot more likely to fold TP and overpairs than a 45/24. The 45/24 will have a much wider range including all the TPs and overpairs along with all the straight draws and random 2 pairs using the boards you described.

I think the hand is fine. Yes pre is a little loose, but look what happened. I doubt Stunt probably doesn't do this very often but the table dynamics were fine for this and I believe he had a plan, but adjusted due to the small flop bet and hit his card for once

Pre would be less bad if the station wasn't half stacked, but it would still be pretty bad considering SB is unknown and he squeezed huge. Flop is an easy call, though if BTN wasn't a 55/5 or whatever it'd be bad because he's got a perfect jamming stack. Glad you hit though, keep it up!

Yes, pre should be a fold to the 3bet

Didn't play the last 2 nights due to being busy.

Start: 4248.37
End: 4097.36
Loss: -(151.01)

So I played really poorly was down like 4 buyins at one point. Then I battle back, played tighter, solid poker and won some of it back. Can't wait till Vegas, SUPER BOWL WEEKEND BABY!

Will you be wagering on the game? If so who you got? I'm so jelly. I know Vegas will bee going insane that weekend

I probably won't be betting the game, but if I were to I'd pick Seattle. Can't wait, hopefully I'll get in a table full of drunken whales!

Start: 4097.36
End: 4122.32
Profit: 24.96

Little bit of profit, took some bad lines and made some bad calls at showdown.

Start 4122.32
End: 4016.06
Loss: -106.26

Sigh, I need to stop playing tilted. I've been getting tilted too easily. Can't do this if I'm going to be playing at Vegas for more money.