Quote:
Originally Posted by emeriaa
Elmerixx hand challenge 1
Will post a hand here and everybody is free to share their toughts about the spot. Best analysis/post picked by €urop€an will win 100$. You have until monday evening 10 PM CET to post your toughts.
This hand is from 700 psko FT couple weeks ago.
Payouts:
38k
28k
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8,5k
6k
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $665 Buy-in (35,000/70,000 blinds, 7,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37659843
SB: 2,961,316 (42.3 bb) (Bounty = 5 143$ )
Hero (BB): 1,492,996 (21.3 bb) (Bounty = 4 236$ )
MP1: 1,392,712 (19.9 bb) (Bounty = 1 709$ )
MP2: 894,594 (12.8 bb) (Bounty = 831$ )
MP3: 4,479,332 (64 bb) (Bounty = 10 504$ )
CO: 4,279,080 (61.1 bb) (Bounty = 7 039$ )
BTN: 1,999,970 (28.6 bb) (Bounty = 4 571$ )
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 9
2 folds, MP3 raises to 153,300, 3 folds, Hero calls 83,300
Flop: (390,600) 5 9 T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets 158,428, Hero calls 158,428
Turn: (707,456) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets 4,160,604 and is all-in
Villain in the hand is Mid/HS reg and he plays pretty loose/agro. I think his RFI will be high in this spot(35%-45%). We don't have any special dynamics going on in this tournament. There is couple weaker spots left in the tourney (SB + MP2).
Some questions I will excpect you to cover in your reply ->
1) What is optimal ?
2) What assumptions if any you would make about villains range on the turn (his jam is 1,4x pot) ?
3) How does Hero's calling range will look like in this spot?
Pre and flop call is okay I guess but against aggro chip leader I'd consider c/r ai many flops instead of call-call as our hand is very easily dominated by many cards on turns and we can safely assume we won't get to an easy showdown. This one however is not really the type of hand I'd c/r here so just call and hope to improve and/or that MP3 slows down.
Turn he shoves which I think is his only size if he is not checking behind. He'll be shoving every value type hand alongside his bluffs even nuts are gonna be shoves as the bounty on our head is only winnable if he stacks us obv and many rivers can be a scare card to us after ch-ch on turn and we'd ch/fold some of those rivers for sure even tough we'd correctly/mistakenly (like you did
) would've called on the turn. His money will come here from knocking people out and getting it in with good equity against any smaller stacks on this table. So he's gonna be shoving here all kind of J+ pairs, straights, sets, club and diamond draws, some straight draws (most got a pair as well) and two pairs with a few combos of weaker bluffs like A5o.
Against above mentioned range on the turn and given the 1.4-1.5 bubble factor we need serious equity here, a lot more than 97o has. More exactly it issomewhere around 45% (could be less if we add more air bluffs) which is pretty hard to achieve here but a range like this:
5h5s, 5h5c, 5s5c KQs, Q8s, 87s, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, KdTd, QdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Qd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Jc8c, Td8d, 9d8d, Jc7c, Jh5h, Js5s, Jc5c, Th5h, Ts5s, 9h5h, 9s5s KQo, Q8o, 87o, KhJc, KsJc, QdJc, JhTd, JhTs, JsTd, JsTh, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Jh9d, Jh9s, Js9d, Js9h, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Td9h, Td9s, Th9d, Th9s, Ts9d, Ts9h would get us there.
However due to the nature of PKO tournies we should consider our future EV with our stack we'll have after this hand which should lead us to calling looser here with hands such as 9d7d or Q8o.
edit: 7:01 pm /facepalm
Last edited by Shokyu; 03-06-2017 at 02:12 PM.