And not in the good way.

A winning professional opens 3 seats off the button in an 8 handed game. I have a limited history with him (two days and maybe 6 hours) and he knows who I am. I 3-bet the CO with TT and we see a flop of:

7 3 3

He checks and calls.

K putting a flush draw

He checks and raises.

The rub here is that if I fold too much instantly I am exploitable, as he is putting 2 big bets into an almost 6 big bet pot. So folding more than 25% of my range is exploitable and if I do it he should raise 100% of his range on the turn. My range here when I bet the turn is probably 100% of my preflop 3-bet range. Let's call it AQ+ and 77+. But how much does being exploitable matter? I'm going to be playing with this guy a lot, so I imagine some, but let's be honest he has some cheese ball king here a huge percentage of the time, as I don't think he'd slow play much on this flop and this play from 66 or 99 or something is pretty rare.

1. What do you do with TT here?
2. What do you do with various other hands in your range?

I feel like I need to call down with at least a few more hands than those that can beat a crappy king, but might just be over-thinking it.

i think a more important question is what range do you put him on when he checkraises here? try and be as specific as possible.

babar if I knew the answer to that question I wouldn't really have to post the thread. But....

KT+
K7s+
Any flush draw he raised with preflop and still peeled the flop with, so something like 98s+, T8s+, Q9s, A8s+
A straight up bluff with jack high.
Some 7s that just picked up flush draws, like A7s, 87s maybe.

Well this has to live and (at least) 15/30 and by your own comments you have limited history on him and you are concerned about being exploited (or pushed around) by him. If you decide this is the time to take a stand perhaps your best action is to 3 bet the turn. This gives him the opportunity to think about things and you the opportunity to see his response. Regardless of the outcome you have sent him a message concerning his ability to exploite you.

sure, i agree that if you knew it it would help a lot of things, but it's a good way to think about the hands imo. let's take it to the next level. roughly what % of his total handrange do these checkraising hands (that you just listed) comprise? this may involve counting combos and other daunting things which tbh i am not amazing at either. but i bet the forum as a whole will help us pwn this problem.

not to mention other related things we can talk about are your pf3b range, and the turn value check possibility!

Forgive my n00baliciousness, but is a winning pro really open-raising K7s, 98s, and T8s from 3 off the button? I don't have the WITHG preflop charts memorized, but those seem like pretty wide ranges. With 5 people left to act (HJ-CO-BTN-SB-BB) you're bound to get dominated a lot with those, aren't you?

Or am I underestimating fold equity from the blinds?

I think you're probably beat, but I don't mind a calldown here just to let him (and others at the table) know you won't be frightened off your hand. And of course there's some chance your tens are still good, and you could possibly spike a ten on the river as well.

As far as putting him on a hand, i think 77 or A3s is reasonable, because otherwise I think he'd be hesitant to check-raise when a king hits, considering you had 3-bet preflop. Decent chance you're holding AA, KK, or AK there. For that reason, I think a bluff is less likely in this instance than it might normally be. If he has observed you 3-betting light (or very strong), that factors into his thinking, so be cognizant of that.

You can make arguments for either calling or folding, though if you choose to call him down (even just some of the time), I would want to do it as soon as possible for the reason stated above. I think 3-betting is a bad idea because you're going to get 4-bet semi-frequently. Besides, if he is indeed bluffing, you would rather that he fires another river bet than folds to your 3-bet on the turn. True, there is some chance he could suck out on the river with an A/Q/J, but combined with the chance you're already beat anyway, I think calling is definitely better than raising.

The hands that I was dubious of when I read this were, K7 and K8s, and its not like we should be shocked to see them. They are going to to be losers from UTG 6 handed for the vast majority of players though.

Jesse, is there any reason he should be expecting you to fold much of your 3bet range on a 733K board? Unless, he thinks you're really wide here, the K should strengthen your 2 barreling range.

jesse:

Is this a 40 game? Other than winning pro, what else can you tell us about this villain?

How aggro is this guy? If he's really aggressive, I like (and sometimes employ) bbb's suggestion that you begin to consider turn value checks.

Would he c/r semi-bluff a hand that improved, but still doesn't beat your tens? If so, I like Mr. Rivett's 3-bet suggestion and disagree with the poster that states you'll be getting 4 bet semi-bluffed even "semi-frequently" from an otherwise winning player.

You've proposed some hand ranges from 3 off the button (assume you're talking about the lj here) that are pretty wide and, if true, disqualifies him as a true TAG and puts him on the laggy side of the spectrum.

Without knowing any more than you've told us, I'm certainly not folding my tens to his c/r. Whether I call down or 3-bet would depend on other reads/info.

Babarino,

I have no idea what percentage of his total range is made up by the possible check/raising range I postulated. If I had to guess I would say 1/3rd. Perhaps I will try harder after I eat some dinner to get a real number.

Leo Doc Sir,

Yes this was a 40 game. He is a 2p2er who makes his living propping. I have heard rumors that he is quite good but as I said I have little experience with him.

I actually think a 3-bet fold is probably better than calling down, since I just don't see myself getting bluffed by a 4-bet like ever.

Yes I have proposed a super wide range, and that's mainly because of the hand I saw him show up with.

I'm hesitant to consider a turn value check when a fair piece of his range still has 10 outs (AQ, AJ, QJs....36 combos). With a pair of queens I'd be more inclined to try it.

No. I almost have to have a pair and he's probably assuming I will never fold one.

My preflop 3-bet range in this spot was pretty strong, something like 77 or 88+ and AQ+.

Well, now he knows exactly what percentage of the time you have a pair.

Or are you posting this in SSLHE because it's below his radar?

MSLHE is a cesspool

HSLHE is all gab

other than the small stakes shorthanded forum this is the best LHE strat forum.

3-bet/fold "might" be better than calling down, but not because he'd be likely to 4-bet semi-bluff or bluff. (Althought an expert might very rarely make that play against a tight TAG with a 12-15 out draw on the turn.)

But I think you have to be very cautious about 3-bet/folding relatively strong hands on dry flops against good players with whom you are just beginning to develop your metagame. If he's making this play (the c/r) with 66 or 88 or 99, then you've got to get to the river and you're willing to let him spew a bit. If he's doing it with AJ or AQ, hoping to run you off a pair less than kings, then call the c/r and re-eval the river and call "safe" cards.

Either way- 3-bet/fold or call turn c/r, call river- has you putting in 3 bets on the big streets. You get a lot more info with the latter course, tho, and have the ~4% chance of spiking another ten as a bonus.

And that why it's important to get to the river with a player you don't know much about. In addition to seeing his post-flop play and proclivities, you also begin to formulate his pf range.

And that's fair enuf. Value checking TT is best against very aggressive players, not your garden variety lag.

i have to respond to this.

;lsakfja;slkdfjas;lfja;dsldfja;ldfj;alddfj;asdlfja k;dlsfaja;lkdjfka;ldjfa;
a;kjdf;asjdffa;kdfja;sdklfj;alkjdf;aslfjk
;laklksjf;askjdf;adsljfa;jf;dsjfa;sdfja;fj;a

translation: holy balls i think this is fairly yuck

non-exploitative play is most important when you are against a skilled unknown. the more information you have on an opponent, the more you should tailor your strategy to exploit him(not necessarily tailor it to avoid being exploited).

this situation should be based on what play holds the most immediate value. looking at effective odds, you are getting around 3.5-1 to call down. without doing the math, looking at the range you assigned him i would think you easily have a profitable call down.

if you want to examine the best GTO play, sure you would need to consider folding some portion of the range you gave for yourself versus the turn checkraise. looking at that range, TT is too strong of a holding to fold in this situation. save folds for hands that you might calldown some times, but you don't give up as much in folding(maybe AT/AJ if it was in your range).

yea, 3bet/folding is FPS 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999% of the time. maybe more than that.

Why? You don't think he'll ever give up on the river with a missed flush draw (assuming i'll never fold so why incinerate another $80)? Or you think he'll actually 4-ball me with a hand I have outs to defeat? Or something else?

I agree that most of the time it's FPS and I'm not sure I've ever actually done it I just like to talk about it on the interwebs and pretend I do complicated things when in fact I just amble towards showdown in 2/3rds of the hands I play.

Who said anything about the potential 4-bet being a bluff? That's not what I was talking about. I'm talking about him having a real hand, like 77, A3s, or perhaps AK.

if we 3bet turn are we firing the river UI? if Villain calls turn on this paired board with KT/KJ/w/e he's not doing so to draw and may likely talk himself into calling the river.

1. If I 3-bet the turn and got called I wouldn't bet the river.

2. I think the preferred line is probably a fold, but see merits to 3-betting over just calling down, mainly because I doubt villain is ever bluffing with true air very much. If he for some reason decided to turn AJ into a bluff and I got him to fold that'd be super sweet anyway.

3. His c/r range is a little fishy because while he's probably capable of opening some crappy kings, he really shouldn't be peeling with them. Like K8s doesn't have a whole lot of equity on this board given the strength of my range.

I know if I c/r'd you on the turn in this spot (given your response, which seems pretty obv) it would be with a very value-heavy range.