i mean the first statement should not be the case if you have a good 3betting range pf and or a good/balanced style postflop. the second statement, if he assumes that, is useful for you, and we should figure out how. i really doubt that it's -that- true though. as a new tag in those games i expect the other tags to be frisky vs you for a while. in your shoes i wouldn't fold anything for a while. then you can actually get the rep of sd bound and then you can start to make folds.

Based on your comments in this thread about villain, don't fold. Don't 3-bet either, wtf? You guys don't have enough history or knowledge about each others' games yet, so just get to showdown, see what he has, and then add that to your database of info.

Against good opponents in spots where they can reasonably turn up with a semibluff or outright bluff I just calldown with the top of my range, and fold the worst. Like in this spot against someone we perceive to be a good winning pro I'd probably showdown QQ/JJ and fold worse.

I honestly wouldn't mind calling down in a spot like this for metagame and then flipping your hand face up when he shows. If it's someone you're playing with semi frequently then him knowing you aren't bet/folding something marginal is important.

And FWIW if I perceived someone to be a good player and didn't have a spewy image I'd raise 100% of my flush draws on this turn since good live players do have a b/f button.

So what hands do you want me to 3-bet preflop here babar? AT-AQ....and....QJs? A9o? Those last hands are in serious dooky against even a wide good player. You're saying my pf 3-bet range needs to be weaker so he can peel more? Please explain.

Mathematically vacuuously calling JJ and QQ and folding otherwise seem correct to me if my 3-bet range is what it is. If I widen it I need to call more to avoid heinous meta bluffability.

I was going to only say for all things holy don't 3 bet the turn. You could get to showdown for that same friggin bet. If he bets his air on the river w/ any frequency this is a MUCH better line.

I think maybe this is a little results oriented, but I'm debating a value check on the turn. For one, since everyone likes to put you on AK, I think we will get a lot of respect for a King in our range from average TAGs. Against these TAGs I think you have an easy bet/fold. They just have too much value in their c/r range to want to continue here. They never turn ace high or smaller pocket pairs into bluffs so it's the very occasional flush draw.

The better postflop and wider preflop this opponent's ranges are then the more I like checking back the turn. For one you don't have to deal with a c/r. Sure you don't charge flush draws and smaller pocket pairs and 6 outer ace high type hands. But I think if he's a good handreader he is going to take a stab with his flush draws on most rivers and also bet most pocket pairs for value as well, so we get our bet out of those hands. We do lose to a 6 outer occasionally, but the pot isn't huge, sometimes they valuebluff those hands on the river anyway (getting our precious bet). The advantages of checking are we never get bluffed by worse and often induce from a hand like QJ that was not putting another bet in this pot until you checked. Also, in the future you get to take a lot of free cards and see free showdowns when you check this turn with ace high, since your opponent's will know you have value in your turn checking range.

I dunno what do people think? Will a "very good" live player bluff enough on this river?

you're not 3betting AQo here already?

i mean it depends on things like what are the positions, what is his handrange (which we can roughly figure out based on what we know about him like can he change gears, adjust to tight ppl behind him, can he tilt, does he attack tight blinds, does he like suited connectors, etc -- you know this stuff about live players more than i do), and so on, as to what we should be 3betting with.

it sounds like you currently 3bet the same hands always vs everybody (i could be wrong on this)? if you want you can download pokerstove (www.pokerstove.com i believe) which can give you some good help in looking at ranges and seeing what kinds of hands have high 40s or close to 50% equity in this kind of resteal situation. hands like 88, QJs, KQo play a lot better here than i suspect you believe.

and i wasn't saying you should 3bet lots of trash so you can have a wider turn bet range, but just that you shouldn't always have ace highs or big pairs (which are a bit of a pain when we get checkraised) and that no matter what we have we shouldn't always be barreling

Out of interest does anyone believe a winning player would ever do that?
Surely you'd have crossed the line from TAG to spewtard making plays like that.

earlier in the thread I posted my 3-bet range as roughly 77+, AQ+. I feel that getting out of line would be 55 or AT.

Poker stove tells me that QJs has 48% equity against a ~38% opener. 38% includes T9o, K3s, and some other very unimpressive hands. I just didn't feel my opponent was this wide here.

I mean it's not like I can tailor my pf 3-bet range for a specific flop. On some boards it's gonna be very unbalanced....just the way it works.

On some boards we should be barreling our entire range UI right? Like if the flop is 222-4 I'm gonna fire the turn basically no matter what.

i think the opponent often is at least as important as the board texture. on 2224 for example i know a lot of guys where i'm not sure what a bet against them when we have kqo would accomplish

Against a lot of opponents I'd check hands like KQ, KJ maybe even something like AT or AJ depending on how showdown bound/straight forward they are. Then again if I had AT in my 3bet range their range is probably wide enough to bet it for value.

If you can safely fold to a bet against certain players on a river there (maybe they only bet AK+) then I'd check a bit wider range and just bet for value and a little bit of protection, call it 40% equity+.

Yeah the hands you guys were suggesting weren't in my range but I def see babars point.

I'd imagine KQs, AJs should be in your range against a winning pro's LJ open unless he's quite nitty, and even nitty guys tend to have similar opening standards to laggyer tags from the LJ.

in a vacuum a winning player doesn't do it, but at any given point in time a winning player is fully capable of making a spewy play. most opponents' ranges become very polarized when giving that kind of action, though they are certainly weighted towards monsters.

I think the key here is not so much making exploitable turn folds, its putting yourself in position to make them by making exploitable turn barrels. Now in this hand I think a turn bet is probably in order, but I feel like cont betting the turn with 100% of your 3bet range will lead to people cr semi-bluffing. It becomes a pretty easy proposition for them since your turn betting range is so wide that he can count on a decent amount of FE and just straight equity the times you do call. This is a concept theBryce talks about a lot. The wider your turn betting range is the cheaper it becomes for him to make this kind of play and because the K is a very easy card for him to rep and he will show up with one often enough to cover the times he has a draw.
People recommending a turn 3bet are just compounding the spew, because you are never getting folds out of hands you want folds out of and if you ever get a fold it was from a hand you are wa of. This is a spot where we can lower our variance by allowing him to follow through on rivers he misses rather than sticking in 3bets against a hand that has us crushed or has good equity against our range. Also the 3bet for a fsd is extremely easy to adjust to, since an opponent can just take to donking the river with all his Ks, missed draws and the times he hits.

Thanks Mitch. Much appreciated.

Nice post Mitch. I've been trying to get c/red less on the turn, and the best way to do that is basically what you describe.

So results....I call down and see either K9 or K8 off. Villain scoops my will to live into his stack.