Your options below are taken directly from another one of your posts...



I'll be deciding between 2 of the following for my double picks pool...

In alphabetical order...

Miami, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Seattle

You have Pittsburgh

Oops meant Buffalo & Miami! Not Oak lol

That buff game is gonna be a bad time. You don't have Jax available?

I've decided to take Jax and Miami in my double pick pool and Miami in my single pick pool. Gonna put 5x buy in on minn ML

Is there a website where you can put the teams you have left and the teams everyone else has left to see what your win% is? I was offered a chop, but I think I should get more than everyone else considering the teams I have left.

Here is what I have taken so far. 14 left! Week 16 single pick. Week 17 2 picks if 10+ left

PHI-GB-NO-INDY-SF-SD-WA-MIA-SEA-DEN-PITT-NE-CIN-HOU-BALT
PHI-GB-NO-SD-DEN-SF-NE-KC-SEA-BALT-PITT-INDY-STL-DET-NYG

Definitely taking MIA on pick #2. Pick #1 my main choices would be JAX, STL or BUFF

I'm hoping for a miracle deal as I recently quit my job to work on a non paying project so the $4,500 would really help me out!

How will the website know that Oakland is better than Buffalo though?

I would guess if you take Jax you will be the only one on them leaving you sitting pretty come Sunday. Jax defense has looked very good, and Tennessee is in good position for the #1 pick.

Buff at Oakland. Oak will play buff very tough, especially at home. Carr and company have played well home recently, and Buff has the same type of offense that both KC and SF run. If the Raiders can stop Williams they will be in position for the upset.

It's so hard. I can see the Buffalo letdown, but I'd almost rather go out with a decent team than the Jags. Tennessee blew out KC on the road earlier in the year but lost to NyJ yesterday. I would absolutely love to get my pick out of the way on Thursday and root for upsets Sunday. Ah, what to do!

There are 2 reasons to pick Jacksonville over Buffalo

1. More people will be on Buffalo & St. Louis than Jacksonville

2. If Jacksonville wins on Thursday, you'll have plenty of time to hedge the Sunday games. If pick distribution comes out prior to Sunday 1:00 games, you can do a money line parlay on Buffalo & St. Louis correlating with how many people picked those teams.

If they both win, you win the parlay. If either loses, your entry gains equity with only 1 game left to play


You should figure out though the likelihood of people being on Buffalo or St. Louis (or other) before making your pick. If everyone is going to be on Miami, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Seattle, New England or Green Bay, you're better off taking the team with the best Win %. If anyone has the prior listed teams, they'll be taking them over Buffalo, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Carolina... etc.

Week 16
3 left

Reasonable Options Available:
Miami and Buffalo

The other two don't have Miami, I'm assuming they are taking New Orleans week 16
They have Houston left for week 17, I don't.

Option 1
Take Miami this week and be lost for week 17

Option 2
Take Buffalo this week who has a slightly worse ML than Miami, and take Miami week 17(if I'm still around)

I've hedged twice this year, I have to consider that as part of my buy-in right?


USED
Eagles
Packers
Saints
Colts
Steelers
Broncos
Patriots
Chiefs
Seahawks
Ravens
Chargers
49ers
Texans
Lions
Giants
16
17

If they take NO you are free rolling the pool. This is your week to win it. Take Miami and count your money, even though I still think Jax is the best play of available teams. If neither has Miami I go there.

h_ven, what about st. louis?

Buffalo and St Louis are similar win odds.

I don't think the difference in win% is worth even considering anyone else.

I think if I'm in your shoes I probably just take Miami and hope to win the pool this week. If you're still alive, they'll also be in a tough spot for week 17. Maybe if they've used up the Saints you can take them @TB to wrap it up. Things should change come week 17 once teams are eliminated, resting players, locked into certain playoff spots, etc.

I think I'd rather survive this week than get fancy. Keep checking moneylines as the week goes on.

Sort by ML's. Don't profit.

NO this year lost at home as ML favorites of:

-475
-140
-235
-375

Why on Earth would anybody ever use them and feel good about it.

The markets would have adjusted for New Orleans being a ~16th type team as opposed to an ~8th ranked team they would have been for the early parts of that run, and still have them as a decent favourite. As well as that, they have had some nice wins on the road this year, and generally speaking previous biased success/failure on the road or at home is not a predictor for further biased home/road success.

If you are going to be basing decisions on previous small samples, why did you pick Cincinnati after they had lost 24-3 at home only three weeks ago to their upcoming opponent, which not only did they have a poor. Not only that, but that pick went against your previous advice of NEVER BETTING A DIVISONAL GAME!!1!1!11ONE!11!! or a ROAD TEAM!!1!!1!1!!1!!!!111!!ELEVEN!1!!

I'm honestly really considering taking Jax.

Does anyone know of a reputable sports betting site that pays fast in case I want to hedge? I live in US

Can you escrow?

If you get bitcoin, nitrogensports pays right away and there's no costs. The juice on their spread is the same as pinnacle.

Eddy send me a PM. Yeah I can if reputable. As for Bitcoin, way too complicated for me LoL

If you're going to hedge on the game that you picked, you're much better off taking the biggest favorite you have available. The moneyline price will be much better and if you choose to bet the underdog with the points instead you have a much bigger middle to win the bet and the game

Not crazy about my next 2 weeks to close out the season.

Teams used: ZONA, BAL, BUF, CIN, DEN, DET, GB, IND, KC, MIA, NO, PHI, SD

Gotta take 2 this weekend and 2 next weekend.

NE and Seattle are my most valuable teams remaining. I'm for sure taking NE this weekend as the Jets are terribad and NE should still be firing for a bye/home field advantage.

I'm tempted to take the Hawks too, but I am pretty sure that winning this pool is going to require surviving both weeks, so I would like to leave myself Seattle for week 17. It's worked out well that they will have to play all the way through 17 for HFA, even if I'm not as wild about having to take them against a very salty Rams team.

So that leaves me with these options for week 16: Rams vs NYG, PIT vs KC. I'm ruling out Dallas b/c of the Murray injury. I can't stomach the idea of taking JAC on a short week and SF looks like utter trash. That gets me through just about all the favorites and I don't really see any underdogs I like much.

Taking the Rams seems like more of a leap of faith than taking the lolStealers. I would think PIT would come out firing hard in this game and Bell should have a field day against that KC run defense.

TL;DR: Given the teams I've taken (see above), I'm leaning towards taking NE and PIT this weekend. Thoughts?

I agree with this, but betting the spread means winning less, but gives you the chance to middle.

Eg.

Assume $1000 survivor pool and you take Jax.

If you want to hedge $200, can bet Tenn ML +140, for a $280 winnings.
Alternatively, Tenn +2.5 +115 is a $230 winnings. So you're giving up $50, or 1/4 of your bet size for the chance to middle.

But I agree in principle with your post. Can take Miami in survivor, and bet $200 on Minny at +250 for a $500 return. Or Minny +6.5 +100 for a $200 return with a decent chance of middling.

Cliffs:

If you plan to hedge, just take the best Vegas option.
Determine if you want to bet ML or spread based on your risk assessment. Maybe 1/2 on each? $100 on ML and $100 on spread.

I'm not a hedger in Survivor unless it's heads up (maybe 3-way) and I know exactly who the others will take and they can't take the same team as me.

Rams (-5) are a bigger favourite than Steelers (-3).
Pitt (vs Cin) is a better option than the Rams (@Sea) in Week 17.

For those 2 reasons I'd lean much more in favour of the Rams than the Steelers.

Who is your 2nd option for week 17 after Seattle?

How many teams are left in the pool? Who do they have available? I'd be shocked if anyone had NE+Sea this week. It's worth considering to win it outright now, but if your pool still has some girth to it, may be worth holding on to Seattle.

Week 17 you have houston at home vs Jax. That has to be one of your teams

I wouldn't hate using Carolina vs Manziel this weekend.