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Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance? Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance?

12-17-2013 , 03:46 PM
To answer the question here...yes. When I run really bad in live PLO, I play lower volatility games (nlh). I suppose I leave some money on the table in the short term by doing this, but I am also better prepared to handle downswings and stay in action because its much harder for me to go busto.
Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance? Quote
12-20-2013 , 04:28 PM
tournament poker but one can do so in cash games for the same reason that one avoids the big hole by playing a couple of hands more, where one is less marginal on average.

with a bad enough opponent its known that one can wait a better spot, that also avoids the possibility he might hit and run, or one just gets too deep in the hole and for no reason at all really as one gets action without it also.

in such plo cash games i try my best to avoid marginal situations when i can get a bigger edge by just waiting and playing more passive a bit longer. i am thinking of doing it generally also but as games can be rather tight, the opposite partly tends to be necessary.
Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance? Quote
12-20-2013 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Griffey24
Ok yah I agree, I can see some merit to this point of view.

If everyone at the table is a $500 stack, and the fish on your immediate right is $1k stack, and you have a $1k stack then I can see times where maybe it's not worth taking that 2% edge with some other reg that has a $500 stack.

This is a hard situation to quantify. As the other poster said, if you win you'll be $1500 stack and although the fish currently only has $1k he could get up to $1500 as well.
This post sort of lays out the issue of this question, the initial question had no other variable, now we are producing other variables into the equation, the more variables we add the murkier the question becomes and its almost impossible to answer the question in one way. Therefore if you want a better answer to such a question we would have to stick with a one strict scenario. None the less, good discussion.
Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance? Quote
12-21-2013 , 12:43 PM
I won't profess to understand a word of what was written in the responses but I think OP is right. One might consider poker to be a variance control game rather than a profit taking game. If both players are playing optimally, the one who controls his/her variance the best is the winner because he/she will bust less often. I think that is what Aaron is trying to say. If you play with lowest variance, you can keep your bankroll alive longer and continue winning for longer. If EV is equal for two decisions, you should always take the lower variance play. If your edge is extremely thin, then sacrificing profit for variance is always correct.
Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance? Quote
01-24-2015 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
If your edge is extremely thin, then sacrificing profit for variance is always correct.
yes, assuming your utility function is mean/variance maximization
Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance? Quote
01-25-2015 , 01:08 AM
Only if it violates ≈ 1/5th - 1/10th Kelly or if the EV gain is ambiguous.
Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance? Quote
01-26-2015 , 03:22 AM
Never give up EV. Period.

If someone jams a flop and I have A high and think I'm ahead I call.
Would you sacrifice Long Term EV to reduce Short Term Variance? Quote

      
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