"why? The OP said the guy had rigid strategy"
The reason being is I am looking at this situation in a long-term approach, in the example I gave I said villains current playstyle has him calling with KT+ but folding hands like K9 since K9 falls just below the theoretical 25% calling range villain has.
Once we make the adjustment to bluff this high fold frequency at an exploitable rate we leave ourselves vulnerable by giving our opponent a very high EV call. But that's ok because we know this player is exploiting themselves with this high fold frequency already. So that leaves us with two options, we can play GTO which in its purest form means that our opponents value between Fold/Call/Raise is all the same, therefore with our GTO strat it doesn't matter what our opponent chooses to do since all options equal the same EV = "X" meaning our EV = -"X" (the inverse of villains EV). A winning approach but not the best option.
So that leaves us with playing an exploitative style, once we have gathered info and found Villains leak (folds too much) we can adjust accordingly to raise our range EV(always consider your entire range and how your strategy affects it). Since we are no longer in GTO fold/call/raise do not have the same EV for villian, now its EVfold= Z, EVcall= Y, EVraise= R. We know that fold is going to be this players preferred option, so we want to make the EV of fold as low as possible by bluffing. As we bluff more that "Z" value goes down while the "Y" and "R" values go up, which as I said before leaves ourselves exploitable but that is the whole point of exploitative style. Compare this to a simple rock paper scissors example, my friend Bruce always throws rock 80% of the time once I figured this out I adjusted my range to be full of paper combos but I still throw rock and scissors sometimes so that Bruce doesn't figure me out as a paper machine and starts adjusting his leak.
We want to keep villain in the dark. The less he knows about what we are doing, the more mistakes he is going to make. Once we make an adjustment like this we open up a hole in our game for the purpose of punishing the hole we found in villains game. A dicey situation because once he finds out the jig is up. So when we are adapting this exploitative style we want to use finesse to reach our grand goal of Max EV. That's why you shouldn't be betting 100% versus this guy because you will inevitably destroy this great situation.
The only logical way to theorize what the EV of adding more bluff combos will be and where max EV lies is to look at the spot for the long term. Now once you choose to make the adjustment of going from 7 bluff combos to 17 villain will not know. So your 17 bluff combos will have their highest value for a short period versus villains highest fold frequency. After time this fold frequency will go down for a few reasons. Villain will develop a read on you and will start to notice your higher aggression. From betting 14 combos you now have 24, so lets say in this spot your entire range consists of 100 combos. This means your betting frequency went up from 14% to 24%, something that villains HUD might pick up on. Also villain will be calling your bet 25% of the time and going to showdown, so 1/4 times he will see your now weaker holdings which will make him more likely to call wider than 25% in the future.
This is why you have to widen villains calling range, I used a generic ratio of 1 combo = 1% increase.
Your strategy should start from GTO -> Exploitative once possible.
"to compare we must divide the first result by 14 and the second by 24. No?"
No, doing this will not give you the answer you are looking for. Diving by the # of combos will just give you the average EV per combo. The way I had set up that equation was for range EV, as I wrote above you always want EVs of ranges not just hands.
EV1 = 7 (2pot)25% + 7(pot)75% - 7(pot)25% = value+bluffs = 3.5 + 3.5
EV2 = 7 (2pot)35% + 17(pot)65% - 17(pot)35% = 4.9 + 5.1
In this example you went from betting 14 hand combos to 24. This means that instead of only 14 combos to win with you now have 24. The bluff combos individually will have their EV go down, but the range EV will go up because you are winning more pots. Adding those bluffs combos not only makes you more money from bluffing but also increased your profits from value bets. Once your opponent starts adjusting to calling more you can throw in more value combos as a readjustment to get closer to max EV again.
Here's how these adjustments would play out;
EV1 = 7 (2pot)25% + 17(pot)75% - 17(pot)25% = 3.5 + 8.5 = 12
*Hero's first adjustment
EV2 =7 (2pot)35% + 17(pot)65% - 17(pot)35% = 4.9 + 5.1 = 10
*Villain adjusted by folding less
EV3 = 9 (2pot)35% + 17(pot)65% - 17(pot)35% = 6.3 + 5.1 = 11.4
*Hero readjusts to the wider calling range by value betting more combos that were too thin to valuebet vs a 25% calling range.
There is a simple method that you can use to keep track and confirm Villains calling range frequency that will allow you to quantify what his call% is in real time. A HUD will also give you this number but once villain adjusts it will take hundreds maybe thousands of hands for the HUD to pick up on villains new call frequency. I won't give away the method for the common interest of poker(fish stay fish
), I'm sure most of you thinking players can figure it out there's a clue in this write up that will direct you
.