I developed an implied odds model which includes the probability you will hit a possible winning out (e.g., you hit your low set) and the chance the hit results in a win. I applied it to the low pair situation of the OP without the 3-bet. To simplify the discussion, we will assume that a villain is the initial bettor pre-flop so hero’s pre-flop action is a call and villain will always call hero’s bet if hero hits on the flop and bets.
To provide an assessment of the relationship of implied odds to set mining, the following table shows the needed implied odds where the flop-hit probability is fixed at 12% and the call pre-flop ranges from 10% of the pot to 40% of the pot. The range for the conditional win probability (W) is set at 0.55 to 1.0 and it is assumed villain will always call hero’s flop bet.
Required Implied Odds For Set Mining
Hit Probability = 12%
Call Amount as Fraction of Pot
W | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
0.55 | 32.8 | 47.8 | 55.3 | 62.8 | 66.6 |
0.60 | 18.7 | 25.3 | 28.7 | 32.0 | 33.7 |
0.65 | 13.9 | 17.8 | 19.8 | 21.7 | 22.7 |
0.70 | 11.6 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 16.6 | 17.2 |
0.75 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 13.9 |
0.80 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 11.7 |
0.85 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 10.2 |
0.90 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 9.0 |
1.00 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
We see that the conventional 15 to 1 implied odds for set-mining applies best when a call of 0.2*Pot is required and the chance the low/middle set wins is 70%. Using the 15:1 ratio for W values higher than 0.70 is conservative but the assumptions used such as villain’s always calling or having enough stack may call for such conservatism. Note that as W increases, the call amount impact decreases and has no effect when W=1.
PM me if you want model details.