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Old 03-30-2009, 01:28 AM   #7
Chubby Chaser
Kevroc's Avatar
Join Date: May 2004
Location: New York
Posts: 20,356

Originally Posted by CrazyLond View Post
Weird this was posted today as I was just about to ask about horse racing. My friend in Vegas was talking to some old guys who seemed convinced it was beatable and I guess they sold him on it, outlining some seemingly simple strategy for him. Can this be a +EV thing to gamble on? If so, are there any good resources for a beginner to use to get started?
I tend to believe that the game is beatable (I say "tend" because while I have booked winning seasons in four of the last five years.. the sample is still too small, imo) but, it is a long term endeavor that may take awhile to bear fruit. The money comes from windfalls. I do not believe the bettor that plays everyday is going to beat this game long term.

I believe you must pick and choose your spots. It is the quality of the wagers, not the quantity of them. The takeout in our game is very large and difficult to overcome.

Personally, I watch just about everyday and only wager in the large pick four pools from California (if i have opinions) and when the pick six carryover pools reach over 100k (the dead money, causes extreme value here.. example: I hit a pick six in 2006 that paid $61k that if you played a parlay involving those six winners.. it would have totalled around $12k!!)

For handicapping, I recommend all Andy Beyer's books and for wagering strat, I strongly recommend Steve Crist's "Exotic Betting".

Originally Posted by M.Honcho View Post
What was your profit for the day Kev? Just kidding,lol. About as much as my Dunkirk,huh? I sure could pick the place horses yesterday.

LOL, got excited for a second when Chantel's 13:1 bomb got a head in front at the top of the stretch but, my other main runners did not run a lick and I missed this one by a mile... A TURF MILE at that!!
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