View Single Post
Old 01-21-2009, 01:17 AM   #20
NajdorfDefense
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NajdorfDefense's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: World’s Greatest PosŤur
Posts: 17,073
Re: Did i just waste $13 buying SSB?

Quote:
Originally Posted by selurah View Post
What percentage of cappers can just flat out, out handicap the books and blast them when they see an opening line come out that is off by a few points?
Probably not a whole heckuva lot.

I dunno about 'out-handicap' and 'blast,' but the opening lines on March Madness are quite frequently off and you can see them move as much as six points - at the high end - on a regular basis for spreads, with several more moving 2 points from the open to the following day, and then some continuing to move during the week and/or right up until tipoff. A spread move of -12 to 16 isn't that unusual, you can certainly get +EV middles like on Gtown last year and Memphis year before that.
I've seen totals drop by 5-6 points by tipoff multiple times for games that were already the lowest total on the board over the past 15 years.

Siena, merely one example, was one I thought [and 1-2 others here at SB] was notably mispriced last year, got bigger and bigger dog, and then upset Vandy by 21. I think with having to put up 32 totals and spreads for the first round on Sun Nite, and presumably trying to guess numbers to get equal action on most of those games, there's always going to be solid value in at least a few spots.
NajdorfDefense is offline   Reply With Quote