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Old 10-21-2020, 11:46 PM   #17512
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 2,662
Re: NBA Season Thread 2019-2020

Originally Posted by fidstar-poker View Post
I mean the numbers show that the Warriors are pretty good without Durant. You've used the on and offs for Durant during the regular season. There's a simple reason for that. Curry played about 25% of the minutes Durant didn't play (they're +13pp 100 in those minutes fwiw). So, yes, if Curry only plays 25% of our minutes next year, we're probably going to suck.
Again, I think you're missing the point of these numbers. The point isn't that the Warriors were terrible without Durant - they were obviously a pretty good team even without KD, just as the Raptors were without Kawhi - but that the numbers went from absurd (2017) to normal (2019). Which supports the thesis that the 17 Warriors and the 19 Warriors were very different in terms of their overall quality. Of course starters play more together than not, that's not the point.

Also re:

Curry played about 25% of the minutes Durant didn't play (they're +13pp 100 in those minutes fwiw).
Where are you getting this? For 18-19,

Curry was +13.2 in 2321 MP
Curry/Durant was +15.7 in 1854 MP

So if you do the math (assuming relatively constant pace) Curry without Durant must have been roughly -3.3. Again, I fully acknowledge that the 2017 Warriors likely were the most loaded super team ever and the 2018 Warriors were still an all-time great team, well above mere championship level teams. My point is that the evidence points to the 2019 Warriors being substantially worse. This happens to every top team - the Pistons from 90 to 91 to 92, the Lakers from 02 to 03, the Heat from 12/13 to 14, etc, etc. Dominance is difficult to sustain and playing in the Finals for 5 straight years is going to be mentally and physical exhausting. The Warriors were so good in 2017 that even a substantial decline, they were at worst a top-2 team, but it looks like they declined just like all great teams eventually do.
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