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Old 10-20-2020, 10:42 AM   #2264
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Join Date: May 2014
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Two economists walking down the street:

One economist says to the other "Look, someone's dropped a 100-dollar bill."

The other economist says "No they haven't. Someone would have picked it up if that had happened."


I'm not American and I think people who care about the internal politics of other countries should almost always pay more attention to the internal politics of their own country. I just care about getting value.

If the markets are supposedly so efficiently priced then how come earlier in the cycle Trump was at 1.85 on Betfair (roughly -117 I think) both to get to 2020 or later and exactly the same odss, 1.85 to finish his term, when the latter possibility requires him to last an extra 12.5 months? The price of 1.85 was also ridiculous, there was a lot of anti-Trump emotional betting in those "Trump-fail" markets. I bet Trump then and I think I got good value.

Last edited by LektorAJ; 10-20-2020 at 10:56 AM.
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